Nabokov on Waivers, Who's In On Him?

I've found myself some time tonight and looked at my StatCounter and found that some people were looking for the waiver order for Evgeni Nabokov, as he awaits to see whether or not he will be picked up by another team or be allowed to join the Red Wings' 23-man roster.  I can't believe the amount of anticipation to see what happens out in the Twitterverse, but I'll admit, I'm kind of excited as well.

So, as it stands, the Detroit Red Wings signed Nabokov to a 1-year deal, worth $570,000 annually, which works out to be about a $250,000 cap hit for the rest of the season. There is a no-movement clause to his deal, meaning any team that actually takes on Nabokov, won't be able to shift him to the minors or deal him without issue.  The Red Wings put those clauses in the deal, in order to try and stave off some interest from other teams and it should work in some cases.

As the waiver order goes, it goes from the lowest point percentage earned to the best, in terms of priority, if more than one team put a claim in for Nabokov.  Let's see how that shakes out.

First up is the Devils, as they are currently the worst team in hockey. Nevertheless, with Martin Brodeur starting to finally show some life in the Devils crease and a capable back-up in Johan Hedberg, those are two pretty good reasons why the Devils commented to the negative side, that they'll be in on Nabokov tomorrow morning.  Despite the bargain basement price of $250,000 for the rest of the season, the Devils are still wrestling with some cap issues of their own and don't need the headache.

The Oilers might be in the basement of the Western Conference, but I really think that their believe in their goaltending, as that really hasn't been the worst part of their season. They held onto Jeff Deslauriers and carried three goalies until it was safe for them to demote him, I don't think they want to do the same with Devan Dubnyk, who might be tempting to another team that may be in on Nabokov.

For my money, I really think the Islanders will take a shot on Nabokov, because they don't really have anything to lose. Rick DiPietro is playing an on-again, off-again schedule, they have two back-ups competing for time and the team still looks like they want to play spoiler for the rest of the year. They have cap space up the ying yang and they could really give their franchise goalie some more time to get back to 100% and to a point where he doesn't have to rest every other day.

Failing the Islanders desire to improve their goaltending status in the league for the rest of the season, the Senators are probably looking at their 13-point deficit in the East and thinking that they have an outside chance at making it with a goalie they can play for the rest of the season. For the cost, it isn't a bad gamble to take for most people's money, but there is also the thought process that they might as well give more time to Mike Brodeur or Robin Lehner, work the future in their favour.

With the rumour mill still churning J-S Giguere through, grinding him down into a trade-able pulp, the only real way I could see the Leafs picking up Nabokov, would be to deal away their already well-paid veteran goalie. They don't really lose anything in terms of skill, since Nabokov hasn't likely played much in the last month and had terrible numbers in the KHL, compared to Giguere's work today.  The Leafs are awfully tight to the cap ceiling themselves, so a deal has to be in place, no matter which way you slice it, by the looks of things.

The term rebuilding may have surfaced this week when talking about the Flames and it would seem awfully odd for this team, who hasn't had much traction in the schedule or in the win column, try to improve their standing with a veteran goalie like Nabokov. Miikka Kiprusoff almost looks like he's at his wits end this season and with Henrik Karlsson getting more starts, adding another chef for the stew doesn't make too much sense either today or tomorrow.  I don't expect the Flames in on Nabokov.

The Panthers are coming in at number seven and with the attitude that Tomas Vokoun has developed over getting passed over for Scott Clemmensen, it doesn't sound unreasonable that the Panthers would try to move Vokoun and bring in Nabokov to help finish their season off.  The word that I've read surrounding the Panthers is that the team is still trying to re-sign Vokoun to a new deal, which would likely suggest that a spur of the moment decision is unlikely for Dale Tallon and his crew.

The Sabres got off to a terrible start to the season, but that doesn't really effect Ryan Miller's stock too much, as their All-Star goalie is playing really well at the moment, minus Friday night's game against the Islanders, where bad luck was all he had.  Even if they were to claim a guy like Nabokov, it doesn't seem really likely that Nabokov would report, knowing full well that he wouldn't get the time that he wants to play.  Even if Nabokov was to get this far, I don't expect the Sabres to be anywhere near the Russian keeper.

Neither goalie in Columbus has been too jaw-dropping, but there seems to be a lot of faith in Steve Mason, in his 3rd season, and Mathieu Garon does play the back-up role fairly well. Adding Nabokov would be a pretty heavy sleight against Mason in this case and that just seems rather unlikely tomorrow.  The Jackets are only five points out of a playoff spot in the West, which might be that little itch that keeps Scott Howson up at night, but I have the feeling he'll sleep well.

The Los Angeles Kings have to be thought of as a team that is quite comfortable with their goaltending tandem going forward, no matter how poorly the team in front of them are going.  Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier are two quality goaltenders that have some long-term potential with the club and are doing a fine job of fighting for minutes as it is.  Nabokov would not be a very good fit, despite being just outside the playoff picture at the moment.

If the Atlanta Thrashers going to be thought of as players in the Nabokov sweepstakes, their mindset may be that Ondrej Pavelec may need some more help to develop his game and playing behind a regular season superstar like Nabokov would be a treat for his development going forward.  There is also quite the European flavour to the team, so Nabokov wouldn't be out of place and with Chris Mason on the Injured Reserve with a knee injury, there might be some room for him.  I could see Atlanta be in for the end of the year, helping to get into the playoffs.

The rumour mill has suggested that the San Jose Sharks would be putting a bid in for their former number one goalie, who they didn't re-sign to a contract, believing a deal would likely cost them an arm and a leg.  With a cheap deal already in place, Antero Niittymaki hurt at the moment and being a point out of the playoffs, it doesn't seem too far-fetched.  Antti Niemi has started to take the minutes now and the team has turned a corner of sorts, so picking up a guy like Nabokov would suggest that Niittymaki's groin injury may be more serious that initially reported.  It could be a full house if Niittymaki was to return to two starting goalies already there.

Already, I have found four teams out of these twelve that I think will take a long look at claiming Nabokov and with the Hurricanes with two good goalies, the Blues working over Jaroslav Halak, the Ducks riding Jonas Hiller, the Wild having Niklas Backstrom and Jose Theodore, the Avalanche riding Craig Anderson, it really begins to thin out the crowd.

The only other team beyond the Avalanche are the Chicago Blackhawks, who have been rather disappointing as defending champions, might not be terribly comfortable with the inexperienced Corey Crawford or the aging Marty Turco, who have been good enough to keep the Blackhawks in the playoff race, but confidence will likely become shaky when the playoffs roll around.  In theory, the Blackhawks may have enough cap space to fit in the small cost of Nabokov, so there is a chance a claim could be thrown in.  Will it get any priority?  Seems unlikely to me.

We don't have too much longer to wait, I know I'll be eagerly anticipating the news.

Hjalmarsson Gets an Offer Sheet

The offer sheet has got a nasty reputation in the NHL, as one of the coldest acts of general managing an NHL GM can do, thanks in large part to the Dustin Penner offer sheet, which happened almost three years ago now.  Personally, I like the offer sheets, as much as restricted free agency gives teams a good hold on top prospects, it also guarantees that team compensation if a team covets that player more.

There is also some added security for teams that are fighting against the salary cap ceiling with fitting all of their players contracts for the year, making sure that if they were to lose them to insufficient cap space or another team putting a little excess pressure on the team having trouble by overpaying, compensation would be granted in futures.

That being said, here is what the compensation chart looks like in 2010:

OFFER                           COMPENSATION

$1,020,348 or below             None

Over $1,020,348 to $1,545,981   3rd round choice

Over $1,545,981 to $3,091,963   2nd round choice

Over $3,091,963 to $4,637,944   1st round and 3rd round choice

Over $4,637,944 to $6,183,925   1st round, 2nd round and 3rd round choice

Over $6,183,925 to $7,729,907   Two 1st round choices, one 2nd and one 3rd round choice

Over $7,729,907                 Four 1st round choices

So, this is where the San Jose Sharks come in.  They have obviously decided to put some more pressure on the Chicago Blackhawks, who are sitting on a couple of top end restricted free agents, in Antti Niemi and Niklas Hjalmarsson, and only $3.7 million in cap space remaining.  The Sharks looked at that situation and didn't want to wait for either one to potentially get snapped up via trade to somewhere else, they got their pen in the ink and signed Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet to try and sway him away from Chicago.

The reported offer sheet is said to be a 4-year deal worth $13 million in total, a $3.25 million cap hit per season.  According to the table above, that cap hit would give the Blackhawks the Sharks' 1st round pick and 3rd round pick in 2011. 

Hjalmarsson's numbers were not exceptional in the regular season for the Blackhawks, only 17 points in 77 games with the team, but played solid minutes with the club and made good use of the time he was given as the 4th or 5th defenseman on the team.  In the playoffs, he was far more effective, 8 points in 22 games and he raised his compete level to those of good historical playoff performers, full of compete and sacrifice for the team.  It's almost fitting that the Sharks are going after him, since that was a lot of what they lacked against the Blackhawks in the Western Conference Finals.

If we were going to talk market value, moreso for the regular season, the Sharks are prepared to overpay for Hjalmarsson.  I think the greatest factors in market value is age, position and regular season scoring, with some added features like potential and x-factor can given taken into account, but the first three are the most tangible.  The Sharks do have the closest deal in this range to what Hjalmarsson has been offered in Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, who is also 23, plays defense and had 16 points in 64 games with the Sharks.  Vlasic has a cap hit of $3.1 million for the next three seasons.  The Sharks GM said in this article that they feel Hjalmarsson is a top-three defenseman on any team and I suppose if he got the minutes of a top three defenseman, he might have the same points as Kristopher Letang, who will make $3.5 million over the next four seasons and had 27 points in 73 games.  That doesn't sound out of the question at all.

I think this is a good deal, if the Sharks are right about Hjalmarsson.  They don't have plenty of room for error, since Letang only had 27 points, so that's only an increase of 11 points, but Hjalmarsson is supposed to bring some extra playoff gusto, so you could justify that if he brings it.

Looking at the Goaltending Holes in the NHL

I thought I would climb through the roster tables that I've put together for my Pool Outlook pages on my Hockey Pool Blog and I thought I would look at the goaltending holes I could find, especially when it comes to starting goalies. There are a few goalies on the market that will make the offseason awfully interesting. All of these holes will need to be filled or some positions could also be upgraded. Here's where I think those positions are and possibly how they might look to fill them.

The Thrashers don't have a goalie with many minutes signed on to their roster this Summer as of yet and they will be in the market for a goalie this year. Ondrej Pavelec is a restricted free agent and he'll be looking for a starting job, but it's unclear how much ice-time the team wants to give him at this point. The Thrashers have the ability to be in on an unrestricted free agent goalie, so that will likely determine a lot about Pavelec's role come October.

I wouldn't say that the Blackhawks have many holes to fill, as they could keep Cristobel Huet, who is signed on for a couple seasons more, while Antti Niemi could find himself out of the picture, but after winning the Cup, that does seem unlikely.  It isn't a good bet that the Blackhawks will be testing the unrestricted free agent market, but their crease is right in the middle of the rumour mill gears.  There's plenty of speculation and it's only a matter of time before we see some movement.

It does sound like that the Oilers are comfortable giving Nikolai Khabibulin a second chance with the team, after an injury-plagued year and some legal troubles away from the rink, so the number one spot is his to lose (for a while). The Oilers have a couple of restricted free agent goalies that saw plenty of time in 2010 in Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk, who might be able to fetch a decent enough return via trade. Khabibulin still has a few years left on his current deal with the Oilers and if he stays healthy, one of those two young goalies will get some itchy feet to move on.

Who is it going to be? Is it Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price as the number one guy for the Canadiens? Maybe the question should be, do they only keep one or do they keep both, as they are both restricted free agents, both hungry for number one minutes. If they only decide to keep one, the Canadiens will likely deal the other away, flooding the goalie market a little bit more and possibly bringing in a talented veteran to help the chosen one through the 2011 season.

How comfortable are the Flyers going forward with Brian Boucher and Johan Backlund going forward? If I had to guess, it would be... not very. Boucher was a solid replacement for some much needed minutes, when there was no one else. Backlund shouldn't be immature at age 28 (29 in July), but reliability at the NHL level does pop up as a reasonable question. I would imagine that the Flyers are going to be players in the startin goalie marketplace, but what can they afford or what are they willing to spend?

With some interesting talent potentially available on the open market, can the Sharks gamble their future on what they can afford on the open market or do they use the last couple weeks of June to try and give a new deal to Evgeni Nabokov, while they still have his exclusive rights? Personally, as of June 15th, I would have thought that if they wanted to keep with Nabokov, they'd have signed him already, but that's just me. They have some negotiating power with a good offense in front of whoever takes the crease, so maybe they'll be looking to try a fresh face in the crease in 2011.

I have seen word on Twitter from some of the Blues sources that talks are open between themselves and potential UFA Chris Mason, which would solve their goaltending issue, in terms of their number one guy. If I remember correctly, they have been going for over a week or so, which suggests that this is not a slam dunk. The Blues are a team that has plenty of flexibility around the cap and probably doesn't want to pay too much for Mason, but may open the purse strings for a big UFA goalie that has a better reputation in the league as a winner. I'm expecting the Blues to drive prices up on UFA goalies.

If you ask me, I think the Lightning are in a solid position to upgrade their goaltending, after giving a solid shot to Mike Smith to be their number one, but he might just fit better as the back-up there in Tampa Bay.  That isn't to say that Smith won't be the number one guy on opening night, but with a new General Manager in town, he might have some good ideas on how to help brace the crease for plenty of shots against in the 2011 season.  The Lightning are another team with cap room, so I expect them to be in the market to spend some money in the crease.

The Capitals have a situation not unlike the Montreal Canadiens, but with the likely departure of Jose Theodore to unrestricted free agency, the Capitals do have a couple of restricted free agents in Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, who may be good enough to platoon the number one job, but with the Summer quickly approaching, they might weigh their options, flash some superstars in the direction of a highly rated unrestricted free agent and then go from there.

Huet for Finger?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics
To Toronto	Position	Age	MIN	Wins	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Cristobel Huet	Goaltender	34	2,431	24	56	$5.625 million	$5.625 million
----------
To Chicago	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Jeff Finger	Defenseman	30	30	2	9	$3.5 million	$3.5 million

Who doesn't love an absurd rumour? I saw this one on Twitter this morning, which really shakes one's head. Huet for Finger, two large cap hits, which extend past this season getting dealt. I think the backing of this one was that Brian Burke stated that he would take on salary cap hits for teams as help. Well, whichever bonehead came up with this is forgetting that Burke wants to be rid of his acquired cap space in July so the Maple Leafs remain flexible in the off-season. If Huet was to go to Toronto, there would also have to be picks to compensate the Leafs for taking on such a big lump of salary, which wasn't mentioned. Skip it...

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Hawks & Leafs in Cap Move?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To Toronto	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Patrick Sharp	Forward	27	22	6	19	3	$3.9 million
Brent Sopel	Defenseman	32	21	1	3	2	$2.3 million
--------
To Chicago	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Matt Stajan	Forward	26	21	5	15	1	$1.75 million
Jiri Tlusty	Forward	21	3	0	0	1	$855,000
Garnet Exelby	Defenseman	28	11	0	0	1	$1.4 million

With the Blackhawks desperately seeking out ways to trim down their projected salary cap number for the 2011 season, in order to re-sign Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith to long-term deals, the Maple Leafs might be the team to help solve their problems, but its going to cost the Blackhawks dearly... or so we are to believe. Another rumour from the mill today saw Patrick Sharp and Brent Sopel heading North to Toronto for Matt Stajan, Jiri Tlusty and Garnet Exelby, which not only is a big player swap, there is plenty of cap room heading to Canada in return for two veteran players with large contracts extending past this season.

The surface of this deal is straight cap dump, but on a skill level, this is no real improvement to the Blackhawks, who are going after a championship this year, rather it's a big turn in the opposite direcetion. A feeling most people/fans would honestly believe. The real key to that argument would be Patrick Sharp, who has proven that he is far more valuable as a two-way player than his counterpart in the deal, Matt Stajan.

Despite clearing off $6.2 million of cap space off the books for the 2011 season, the Blackhawks likely won't want to sacrifice a season where they can actually win it all, unless they are somewhat confident that Stajan and Exelby can fill the void left behind by Sharp and Sopel. Exelby and Sopel are somewhat of a wash, skill & scoring-wise, so that isn't too bad. I really don't see Tlusty being the guy to bridge the gap between Stajan and Sharp, but the system in Chicago could be way more beneficial for both players... who is to say?

Sharp is just too valuable and it's the point that keeps coming back around to predict that this deal won't go down. Burke has been able to twist some arms off before, so you just never know for sure.

Frolov to Chicago?

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Chicago	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Alexander Frolov	F	27	77	59	1 year/$2.9 million
Unknown Defenseman Prospect
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Los Angeles	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Kris Versteeg	F	23	78	53	3 years/$3.1 million
Cam Barker	D	23	68	40	3 years/$3.1 million

In another Eklund special, we find that Alexander Frolov is in yet another speculation or rumour. Frolov and what would likely be a rookie prospect defender being traded to the Blackhawks for both Kris Versteeg and Cam Barker.

According to the article, the defensive prospect is holding up the deal, but even still, that does seem to be a bit of a stretch. The Blackhawks are still in some cap trouble, but if there is a prospect coming back, there isn't a great deal of help being done here, just $3.3 million. This doesn't make a great deal of sense.

Chelios Out of Detroit

The fate of Chris Chelios sort of lies in limbo at the moment, as he has been informed that the Red Wings will not be offering him a contract to remain with the team for another season. The 47-year old rearguard has been with Detroit for the past ten seasons and his ice-time and production have diminished with it. In 2009, Chelios only played in 28 games, not registering a point in the regular season. He did manage to play in six games during the playoffs, still not registering a point. His fantasy value has been diminished severely.

I have been reading some interesting tidbits here and there. One of the rumours that has been circulating around is that the Blackhawks may be interested in bringing him back for some veteran leadership. I couldn't see Chelios getting much ice-time with the Hawks, as they have a great core of players who already man the blueline, but a cheap Chelios could be a good seventh or eighth man for a season. The Blackhawks have a lot of money tied up already, so he could be a reasonable solution.

He is a marvel of physical fitness, but I'm sure there are a number of people who wouldn't mind seeing Chelios hang 'em up this summer. It is time for a younger direction.