Nabokov on Waivers, Who's In On Him?

I've found myself some time tonight and looked at my StatCounter and found that some people were looking for the waiver order for Evgeni Nabokov, as he awaits to see whether or not he will be picked up by another team or be allowed to join the Red Wings' 23-man roster.  I can't believe the amount of anticipation to see what happens out in the Twitterverse, but I'll admit, I'm kind of excited as well.

So, as it stands, the Detroit Red Wings signed Nabokov to a 1-year deal, worth $570,000 annually, which works out to be about a $250,000 cap hit for the rest of the season. There is a no-movement clause to his deal, meaning any team that actually takes on Nabokov, won't be able to shift him to the minors or deal him without issue.  The Red Wings put those clauses in the deal, in order to try and stave off some interest from other teams and it should work in some cases.

As the waiver order goes, it goes from the lowest point percentage earned to the best, in terms of priority, if more than one team put a claim in for Nabokov.  Let's see how that shakes out.

First up is the Devils, as they are currently the worst team in hockey. Nevertheless, with Martin Brodeur starting to finally show some life in the Devils crease and a capable back-up in Johan Hedberg, those are two pretty good reasons why the Devils commented to the negative side, that they'll be in on Nabokov tomorrow morning.  Despite the bargain basement price of $250,000 for the rest of the season, the Devils are still wrestling with some cap issues of their own and don't need the headache.

The Oilers might be in the basement of the Western Conference, but I really think that their believe in their goaltending, as that really hasn't been the worst part of their season. They held onto Jeff Deslauriers and carried three goalies until it was safe for them to demote him, I don't think they want to do the same with Devan Dubnyk, who might be tempting to another team that may be in on Nabokov.

For my money, I really think the Islanders will take a shot on Nabokov, because they don't really have anything to lose. Rick DiPietro is playing an on-again, off-again schedule, they have two back-ups competing for time and the team still looks like they want to play spoiler for the rest of the year. They have cap space up the ying yang and they could really give their franchise goalie some more time to get back to 100% and to a point where he doesn't have to rest every other day.

Failing the Islanders desire to improve their goaltending status in the league for the rest of the season, the Senators are probably looking at their 13-point deficit in the East and thinking that they have an outside chance at making it with a goalie they can play for the rest of the season. For the cost, it isn't a bad gamble to take for most people's money, but there is also the thought process that they might as well give more time to Mike Brodeur or Robin Lehner, work the future in their favour.

With the rumour mill still churning J-S Giguere through, grinding him down into a trade-able pulp, the only real way I could see the Leafs picking up Nabokov, would be to deal away their already well-paid veteran goalie. They don't really lose anything in terms of skill, since Nabokov hasn't likely played much in the last month and had terrible numbers in the KHL, compared to Giguere's work today.  The Leafs are awfully tight to the cap ceiling themselves, so a deal has to be in place, no matter which way you slice it, by the looks of things.

The term rebuilding may have surfaced this week when talking about the Flames and it would seem awfully odd for this team, who hasn't had much traction in the schedule or in the win column, try to improve their standing with a veteran goalie like Nabokov. Miikka Kiprusoff almost looks like he's at his wits end this season and with Henrik Karlsson getting more starts, adding another chef for the stew doesn't make too much sense either today or tomorrow.  I don't expect the Flames in on Nabokov.

The Panthers are coming in at number seven and with the attitude that Tomas Vokoun has developed over getting passed over for Scott Clemmensen, it doesn't sound unreasonable that the Panthers would try to move Vokoun and bring in Nabokov to help finish their season off.  The word that I've read surrounding the Panthers is that the team is still trying to re-sign Vokoun to a new deal, which would likely suggest that a spur of the moment decision is unlikely for Dale Tallon and his crew.

The Sabres got off to a terrible start to the season, but that doesn't really effect Ryan Miller's stock too much, as their All-Star goalie is playing really well at the moment, minus Friday night's game against the Islanders, where bad luck was all he had.  Even if they were to claim a guy like Nabokov, it doesn't seem really likely that Nabokov would report, knowing full well that he wouldn't get the time that he wants to play.  Even if Nabokov was to get this far, I don't expect the Sabres to be anywhere near the Russian keeper.

Neither goalie in Columbus has been too jaw-dropping, but there seems to be a lot of faith in Steve Mason, in his 3rd season, and Mathieu Garon does play the back-up role fairly well. Adding Nabokov would be a pretty heavy sleight against Mason in this case and that just seems rather unlikely tomorrow.  The Jackets are only five points out of a playoff spot in the West, which might be that little itch that keeps Scott Howson up at night, but I have the feeling he'll sleep well.

The Los Angeles Kings have to be thought of as a team that is quite comfortable with their goaltending tandem going forward, no matter how poorly the team in front of them are going.  Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier are two quality goaltenders that have some long-term potential with the club and are doing a fine job of fighting for minutes as it is.  Nabokov would not be a very good fit, despite being just outside the playoff picture at the moment.

If the Atlanta Thrashers going to be thought of as players in the Nabokov sweepstakes, their mindset may be that Ondrej Pavelec may need some more help to develop his game and playing behind a regular season superstar like Nabokov would be a treat for his development going forward.  There is also quite the European flavour to the team, so Nabokov wouldn't be out of place and with Chris Mason on the Injured Reserve with a knee injury, there might be some room for him.  I could see Atlanta be in for the end of the year, helping to get into the playoffs.

The rumour mill has suggested that the San Jose Sharks would be putting a bid in for their former number one goalie, who they didn't re-sign to a contract, believing a deal would likely cost them an arm and a leg.  With a cheap deal already in place, Antero Niittymaki hurt at the moment and being a point out of the playoffs, it doesn't seem too far-fetched.  Antti Niemi has started to take the minutes now and the team has turned a corner of sorts, so picking up a guy like Nabokov would suggest that Niittymaki's groin injury may be more serious that initially reported.  It could be a full house if Niittymaki was to return to two starting goalies already there.

Already, I have found four teams out of these twelve that I think will take a long look at claiming Nabokov and with the Hurricanes with two good goalies, the Blues working over Jaroslav Halak, the Ducks riding Jonas Hiller, the Wild having Niklas Backstrom and Jose Theodore, the Avalanche riding Craig Anderson, it really begins to thin out the crowd.

The only other team beyond the Avalanche are the Chicago Blackhawks, who have been rather disappointing as defending champions, might not be terribly comfortable with the inexperienced Corey Crawford or the aging Marty Turco, who have been good enough to keep the Blackhawks in the playoff race, but confidence will likely become shaky when the playoffs roll around.  In theory, the Blackhawks may have enough cap space to fit in the small cost of Nabokov, so there is a chance a claim could be thrown in.  Will it get any priority?  Seems unlikely to me.

We don't have too much longer to wait, I know I'll be eagerly anticipating the news.

Iginla to the Kings?

RUMOUR		2010/2011 NHL Statistics
To Los Angeles	Position	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jarome Iginla	Forward	16	3	7	10	3	$7 million
--------------------
To Calgary	Position	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Brayden Schenn	Forward	8	0	2	2	3	$3.14 million
Other considerations

Gee whiz, you step away from the computer for a night and the hockey world goes a blitz with a trade rumour between the Flames and Kings, which would see Jarome Iginla head down South to Los Angeles for a package that would include Brayden Schenn.

First of all, I'm not going to write this off as wild talk, because the early building blocks has some kind of merit to it, since the Kings want to win now and the Flames could be on the verge of rebuilding.  I don't think either of those statements are far-fetched, but this whole notion is taken with a grain of salt.

The Kings have found themselves in a very interesting position as we close on the quarter-pole of the 2011 NHL season as the Western Conference leaders and a trade for a player like Iginla would be the sort of move that could keep the team in that fine position, especially if they could trade pieces that are not necessary to the team's immediate success, like Brayden Schenn.

The Flames on the other hand are in a state of limbo in the public's eye and only Flames management know exactly where the team is heading in the foreseeable future.  As much as the rebuild idea does have some merit with the team mired in 14th place in the Western Conference, the Flames are only 5 points behind the 8th place Phoenix Coyotes and a comeback is definitely possible, which would mean that if Iginla was to go anywhere, the Flames would require players that would help them to win now.

As for Iginla, there is plenty of scuttlebutt around how happy he is with the team and/or his play of late, which is leading to more smoke from the rumour mill and even that doesn't seem to be far-fetched.  The question then becomes, would Iginla waive his no-movement clause and accept a deal to California in a deal, which would see him join a current contender.

The salary cap numbers do provide an interesting challenge to this rumour, as the Kings were projected to be in tough for any big additions to their side going into the year, but they would be able to dump a good chunk of what they'd take on if Schenn's entry-level cap hit was struck from the books.  I don't have anything in terms of concrete numbers, but I would imagine that the package heading back up to Calgary would have to be somewhat sizable from their own roster.

In the overall scheme of things, there are a lot of wheels that have to be in motion for this deal to go down.  A lot of approvals need to be made from a lot of different people, especially some people that haven't been in consideration up until this point.  This deal is not a rental agreement, since Iginla still has two more seasons after this one on his contract, so there is that to deal with and whatever the Flames decide in terms of how they want to proceed with the rest of their season and their long-term plan.

I won't write this idea off, but I can definitely see it getting ki-bosh'd at some point or another because there was a no keeping any progress from happening.

Early Rumours of Marleau & Kovalchuk

Oh, I love how rumour season is kicking into gear... I do keep a close eye on HockeyBuzz, because it's a lot of fun to play with the rumours.  Sunday afternoon sees an interesting paradigm shift in the Pacific Division with the suggestion of the Los Angeles Kings going after Patrick Marleau on July 1st, opening up the door for the Sharks to go after Ilya Kovalchuk. 

Looking at what the Kings already have in place, Marleau looks like he'd be a pretty good fit down the middle for the Kings, but do they really want to drop a ton of cap space on one player on a young team.  The Kings already have a good captain in Dustin Brown, but you would have to think Marleau would get an "A" if he steps on the ice for Los Angeles.  Depth at centre is somewhat questionable, so having a centre like Marleau to play with a guy like Ryan Smyth does seem rather tempting, so I think the rumour does have some merit.

Last week, I did toy with the idea of what Marleau might be worth on the open market and my best guess would suggest that $6.5 million will be the eventual cap hit for him and since the Kings have $43.4 million already taken up for 15 players, they'd be riding $50 million if they added Marleau.  That's getting pretty tight.

Now, the Sharks targeting Ilya Kovalchuk is super interesting, wouldn't you say?  How far would the desired salary cap hit slide to play in San Jose? That would be my first question when thinking about this potential signing. I'm thinking that if Kovalchuk did decide to go to San Jose in July, he would have to think that moving to the West would give him the best chance to win a Cup, so I'm thinking the desired cap hit may drop down to $7 million per season, which would be well suited to the Sharks, who only have a current cap hit of $34.6 million for 10 players, including Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Dan Boyle.  That would be a boatload of offense and then depth and goaltending would have to be sorted out with the remaining cap space, which might not be a hard task, because they should be able to attract some top talent to play for less with the four players signed (hypothetically). 

The Sharks are definitely in a position to go shopping with Marleau and Evgeni Nabokov hitting the open market, relieving a lot of cap space, and they will have to win something big soon or else the management may be finding itself in some real hot water.

Another Frolov to Habs Rumour...

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics
To Montreal	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Alexander Frolov	Forward	27	58	13	37	$2.9 million	UFA
----------
To Los Angeles	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Matt D'Agostini	Forward	23	38	2	4	$500,000	RFA
Yannick Weber	Defenseman	21	5	0	0	$875,000	$875,000

A few interesting tweets this morning (example) have a rumour flying about, saying that Alexander Frolov is soon to be traveling to Montreal to be a part of the Canadiens for a rental package. As we come down to the rental time of year, this is the kind of deal which is really interesting.

Frolov, who is only just qualifying for unrestricted free agency, has been on the bubble with the Kings all season, as you may have noticed by reading this blog and other rumour blogs on the net. Montreal has also been one of the more interesting targets, where the rumours have been interesting, to say the least. Well, now that its crunch time and the Olympic roster freeze is quickly coming upon us, the rumour mill is in high gear.

The Canadiens are looking for some more depth scoring, especially since the injury bug has been taking big chunks out of the collective skin. With Mike Cammalleri and Andrei Kostitsyn out of the line-up, just to name a couple, the Habs are likely out looking for some more lamp lighters to help fill the roster gaps. Alexander Frolov is that kind of guy, who should be able to help that cause out, although you may not think he can very well, since he only has 13 tallies for the Kings this year. He has topped out at 35 goals in his career, so he does have the skills to do it.

If the Kings are indeed going to move Frolov, it is primarily to make sure that they get something in return, instead of losing him to unrestricted free agency for nothing. The Kings are still in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race, going into Thursday night's action with a firm grip of 5th spot. Asking for a roster player and a prospect is a fair request for a potential UFA who has scored 35 in his career, so this does seem somewhat likely.

From one tweet I had just recently seen (at the time of writing this post), it looks as though the prospect, defenseman Yannick Weber, may be the key to this deal and holds the most value. That makes some sense, but it is kind of interesting that the Kings are looking for another young defenseman.

Matt D'Agostini almost looks to be a throw in as the roster player at this point, since he has a very low cap hit, the Canadiens look to be taking on this reasonably-sized hit of Frolov's with little concern to their own overall hit. D'Agostini isn't going to bring anywhere near the offense that Frolov leaves behind and he'll likely be a depth 3rd or 4th liner, which the Kings do seem to have enough of. It would be interesting to see how he'd fit into their line-up.

Cap-wise, the Canadiens were going into the season with a little bit of buffer space between themselves and the ceiling, but with new injury discounts, they should be able to take on the new cap hit that Frolov would take and be able to take back the players from injury without too much of a hiccup.

The Habs have seen discounts from Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn, Andrei Markov and Andrei Kostitsyn, so they should be able to house Frolov from their annual cap hit of $55.8 million (approx.). I would also have to think Mike Cammalleri will be close to a discount, despite the Olympic Break, he should be able to miss at least five games after the fact, so that should also be a discount.

The Kings, on the other hand, don't even hit the $50 million mark in annual cap hits, even with Frolov in their active roster. That's an easy cap move there.

Like I had mentioned earlier, a roster player and a prospect is a good price around rental time and if the Kings are really high on Yannick Weber, then this deal does seem to be good for both sides... although, I can't really see what the Kings would like about D'Agostini... but if he's getting thrown in, there must be something to it. I would say it makes sense, but don't be surprised if there is a pick or two in there as well, just to level out the deal.

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Frolov for the Kostitsyns?

			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To Montreal	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Alexander Frolov	Forward	27	8	1	5	1	$2.9 million
--------
To Los Angeles	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Andrei Kostitsyn	Forward	24	8	1	3	2	$3.25 million
Sergei Kostitsyn	Forward	22	0	0	0	1	$817,000

Another one from the Eklund files came out this afternoon, seeing the disgruntled forward Sergei Kostitsyn and his NHL-playing older brother, Andrei, head to Los Angeles for often-rumoured forward Alexander Frolov.

On the forefront, the Habs would pick up a quality scoring forward that may be a bit bigger (at 6'2") then what their used to, but should bring enough skill to help spread out the offense through the line-up.

For the Kings, they would get a pair of Europeans that do come with some attitude issues, but they are young and they do have some flash. The question is, can a guy like Terry Murray rope in Sergei into the system?

Well, the Western Conference is a little more wide open for the Kings, especially in the Pacific Division. Something would have to happen, like a conditional pick coming the Kings way, if they are not able to reel in the two brothers and get them in working at 100%. To me, it isn't a terrible move, but its still a questionable one.

Frolov to Chicago?

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Chicago	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Alexander Frolov	F	27	77	59	1 year/$2.9 million
Unknown Defenseman Prospect
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Los Angeles	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Kris Versteeg	F	23	78	53	3 years/$3.1 million
Cam Barker	D	23	68	40	3 years/$3.1 million

In another Eklund special, we find that Alexander Frolov is in yet another speculation or rumour. Frolov and what would likely be a rookie prospect defender being traded to the Blackhawks for both Kris Versteeg and Cam Barker.

According to the article, the defensive prospect is holding up the deal, but even still, that does seem to be a bit of a stretch. The Blackhawks are still in some cap trouble, but if there is a prospect coming back, there isn't a great deal of help being done here, just $3.3 million. This doesn't make a great deal of sense.

A Three-Way Deal in the Works?

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To San Jose	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Dany Heatley	F	28	82	72	5 years/$7.5 million
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Los Angeles	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Patrick Marleau	F	30	76	71	1 year/$6.3 million
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Ottawa	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Jarret Stoll	F	27	74	41	3 years/$3.6 million
Alex Frolov	F	27	77	59	1 year/$2.9 million

Well, isn't this a tasty morsel of information to play with? Reading the rumours this morning, I found this little whisper through the grapevine and I had to write it down. I'm not sure what the actual chances of this happening are, but it sounds like it's just pending the approval of Marleau and his no-trade clause.

There is plenty to consider in this deal, especially since it doesn't help the Sharks' cap woes at all, as they end up taking more cap filler on, which is counter-productive to their current situation. The Kings would be moving two key players to their upcoming season and gaining somewhat of an underperformer. The Sens would definitely be the happiest of the bunch, being able to move Heatley and picking up two quality players for less of a cap hit than the one player that they moved out.

All this deal would be is a means to an end of this whole Heatley saga, if any.

Where Does Kessel Go?

As we start winding down to the beginning of training camps around the league, its time to start intensifying some rumours, especially those about players who may be left unsigned heading into camp. The top player on this list is Phil Kessel of the Bruins, who is likely going to get shuffled out of Beantown because of salary cap concerns and the Bruins' choice to sign a few other key players and leave the 21-year old goal scorer out in the cold.

Of course, out in the cold does seem to be a little harsh, but the Bruins won't likely be able to match the demands of a young player who scored 36 goals in 2009 with the cap situation already being up at $53.9 million for 19 players. That could really limit the team's depth going forward.

According to Eklund at HockeyBuzz.com, three teams are in the race for Kessel's services and I thought I would have a look at those teams, just for shits and giggles.

The Kings are apparently in the mix, just like they have been for Dany Heatley, which seems to be a common theme for some teams in the league. If a team is out for a goal scorer, they were out for a 50-goal scorer in Heatley first and then would take on a cheaper 36-goal scorer in Kessel, if Plan A didn't work. Since Plan A isn't working for anyone at the moment, the shift could be on completely for Kessel, as a team should be able to give up less for him.

Nothing solid has come out of Kings' camp this summer, but names have been thrown around. Alexander Frolov continues to be a name tossed around the Mill this summer, but as it was pointed out in my comments from my last post, Frolov may be hard to unload this summer as well.

The Kings are deep in their prospect pool and it would be likely that the Bruins would want to tap into that for any move of Kessel to the West Coast. The Bruins don't need much for roster players right now, so a prospect move would seem more appropriate.

The Kings' cap situation: 19 players signed at an approximate cap rate of $47.5 million.

The Oilers' cap situation of having 22 players signed on for an approximate cap hit of $55.7 million changes the landscape of negotiations for the Bruins, if they are at all talking. The Bruins would not be looking for roster players, theoretically, for Kessel, as they are also tight to the cap ceiling as well, but the Oilers would be looking to offset that new contract with someone else's deal.

The Oilers were in the works for Heatley as well this summer, which would have been the perfect deal to consumate since the Senators were looking for roster players and the Oilers would have to part with them in order to bring in new contracts.

That all being said, any deal between Boston and Edmonton may have to be a little bit more mathematically challenging than just a straight-up swap. There would have to be another player moved out of Boston, while there would have to be a big name out of Edmonton and then a pile of prospects. The idea of this does seem to be a little far-fetched, unless both teams had a little bit more or a third team involved going in.

The last team that is knee-deep in the mix for Kessel is the Maple Leafs, which does seem quite odd, as Kessel isn't quite a Brian Burke player. That isn't to say that the Leafs couldn't take on a guy like Kessel, because with a lot of the youth that they have signed on over the past six month, they have plenty of space to use up underneath the cap ceiling.

Currently, the Leafs are sitting with 21 players on their roster for $48.7 million (plus $1.7 million in buyouts), which could easily take on Kessel's deal and also add some of their youth to the team, which they are counting on as well for their 23-man roster.

The Leafs prospect pool is not terribly deep, but it does have some prize players in there. It would seem to be an even longer shot to see the Leafs part with some of their key prospects for a player that isn't described as big or really all that tough. Sure, he'll put goals on the board, but that isn't what Brian Burke seems to be about, so I would be very weary of any rumour involving the Leafs.

I would have to believe that the Bruins are looking for more than any team is able to give at this point and they have no sense of desperation, especially since Kessel is a restricted free agent this summer.

It makes me wonder if the Bruins have a leg to stand on here, trying to get Kessel to sign a 1-year deal for a lot less, with promises that he'll be dealt during the year and he can show his stuff off to potential suitors.

The Bruins could be in pretty tough looking for the perfect deal for Kessel, as they only have a limited number of teams that would likely deal with them or actually can deal with them (cap-wise).

Canucks to Dump on Kings?

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Vancouver	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Alex Frolov	F	27	77	59	1 year/$2.9 million
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Los Angeles	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Pavol Demitra	F	34	69	53	1 year/$4 million
Shane O'Brien	D	25	77	10	1 year/$1.6 million
2010 3rd Round Pick

An interesting trade rumour surfaced on Twitter (@NHLSourcesSay) this morning, seeing the now over-budget Canucks trying to clear space by moving Pavol Demitra and Shane O'Brien to Los Angeles for Alexander Frolov. The move would be one that clears $2.7 million from the books, which would leave the Canucks about $1 million over the cap limit with 22 players on the roster.

This move is a step in the right direction for the Canucks, but the Kings may be taking the brunt end of a deal which sees a couple of under-performing players with larger contracts. The Kings are still in a re-building mode, which likely means that they can be the whipping boys of the cap era, for now. Demitra may be a nice compliment to Anze Kopitar and the Kings' power play, but his numbers would have to improve for the Kings to get a good shake out of this dea.

I wouldn't say that this deal is out of the question, especially since the Kings have been rumoured to rid themselves of Frolov and have plenty of cap space.