Hartnell Could Waive Goodbye

Reports are surfacing that Scott Hartnell was approached by the Columbus Blue Jackets back in February to provide a list of teams that he would approve to be traded to, waiving his no-movement clause to do so.  Obviously, a deal couldn't get done at the trade deadline for the scrappy forward, so he was left to finish the season with the Jackets and didn't exactly have the best of seasons, when it was all said and done.

Now, with the team looking forward, they could really use some more cap space and possibly find a player that is much better suited to the style of play that management and the coaching staff want for their club.  Heading into the Summer, you could look at their signed group of players and establish that they have about 19 players, including Hartnell, who would be in the lineup, when the puck drops in October, in theory.  This group is already coming in at $65.7 million, which wouldn't leave a lot of space for improvement through free agency, with fears that the cap ceiling isn't going to go up much, if at all.  The cap ceiling in the 2016 season was $71.4 million, just for measuring purposes.

Elliotte Friedman suggests in his 30 Thoughts from Saturday that teams are being considered are probably not keen on how much is left on Hartnell's deal, three more years at $4.75 million against the cap per year.  That's fair, especially since Hartnell hasn't exactly been a sure thing every year.  Between Nashville, Philadelphia and Columbus, already 15 seasons deep, how much does the 34-year old have left in the tank and what kind of consistency are you going to get from him?  Both are great questions, thus becoming a much bigger gamble.

Since he is already getting up there in age, you would have to believe that he is looking at teams that are trending upwards in their championship trajectory.  With those in mind, a lot of those teams are already facing cap issues, either already having players signed or they have building blocks that they want to take care of first.

Without any doubt, you can bet that Hartnell likely won't move until the salary cap numbers are announced and even more likely, when free agency opens up, teams start spending and then find out what they have left for Hartnell.

And then there is the return that the Blue Jackets want for Hartnell and Friedman reported that the deadline request for a return was quite high.  With the way the market is shaping up and likely how much the team wants to shed his salary, that the asking price will be somewhat lower than what it was at the deadline.  No team is going to take on this salary without sending some back in return and/or having the Jackets retain some of his money for the next three years.  The latter being less than ideal for the Jackets.

One team I could see making a move for Hartnell this Summer would be the New York Rangers, who have been cycling through the rumour mill, more so for their overhaul that could be coming this Summer, including a move to get Rick Nash off of their books.  I am not suggesting that Nash would go back to Columbus in a deal for Hartnell, that doesn't make any sense, rather, once the Rangers move Nash, if they do, they would have a lot more space to work with and they never seem to be afraid of sizable cap hits.

In a much less likely deal, the Buffalo Sabres could send troubled forward Matt Moulson and his $5 million cap hit for the next three seasons to Columbus for Hartnell and his three years remaining on his deal.  It's troubled player for troubled player, but this deal would not solve Columbus' salary cap crunch, rather it would make it less comfortable and that's not really what they want to accomplish here.  The Sabres could use Hartnell's leadership for the kids, while Moulson might be able to find some more scoring in the Jackets' system, which would make it a hockey trade, but still a head-scratcher.

The Anaheim Ducks also fall into the category of a perennial playoff team, which really showed some promise in the 2016 season and currently has some potential openings, where Hartnell's experience, grit and nose for the net could come into play.  They are a team that could absorb a good portion of Hartnell's contract, sending pieces in return and could be a pretty good fit.  The Ducks are closely looking at the numbers that the league comes up with, in terms of the cap ceiling, and they have decisions to make with restricted free agents, but it could be a good move on either side of the conference border here.

Kariya Back to Anaheim... With Selanne?

I saw some interesting tweets from Andy Strickland of HockeyBuzz.com, suggesting Paul Kariya is waiting to see what the market will bear for a return in 2011 and hoping to possibly reunite with former teammate, Teemu Selanne, in Anaheim, where he started his career.  This sort of news gets a guy to thinking, you know?  Could this possibly work out for the Ducks to get both both players signed on for the 2011 season?

Both players are firmly into their Summers, especially since the Blues and the Ducks failed to make the playoffs in April, so there must have been a number of free moments between then and now to contemplate their futures.  Obviously, it sounds like Kariya has come up with some conclusions, while there is some belief that Selanne will hang up the skates at age 39 (or 40 in one month's time).  I guess, the better first question will be, would the prospect of Kariya going back to Anaheim be enough for Selanne to return for another year?  If the answer is no, then all other discussions about this topic are now moot.

For the sake of saying yes though, I suppose it would have to be a look at possible cap numbers going forward, before we try and fit something into the Ducks annual cap numbers.  Let's remember, both players did take less money to play together once before in Colorado, so I think we can safely assume that there could be a special incentive for the Ducks to have both of these players signed on for the 2011 season. 

In 2010, Selanne was signed on to a cap hit of $2.625 million with the Ducks as a 39-year old winger and he finished with 48 points in 54 games.  Kariya, on the other hand, had an annual cap hit of $6 million with the Blues as a 35-year old and he only picked up 43 points in 75 games.  It might be high time that Kariya took a bit of a pay cut, don't you think?  So, saying that, what kind of pay cut are they looking at, especially since Selanne could almost argue for a fine raise with the production he managed in 54 games, but that's another story altogether.  It may not be unreasonable to say to both, here's a 1-year deal for $3 million each, call it square.  I'm sure the Kariya camp may barder for a bit more, but seeing what kind of offers that are made by quality teams might mean he'll be low-balled in discussions.  Fair enough, Kariya has barely scored enough to warrant a $6 million cap hit lately anyways.

Okay, we've settled on $3 million each, which if playing well together on the same team works wonders, it may just be a good bargain for the Ducks to pick up.  Currently, in accordance to my spreadsheet and the Pool Outlook, the Ducks currently have $35.3 million in cap space allotted to 14 players, which looks like plenty of room to slip two players at $3 million each, bringing their total up to $41.3 million for 16 players, leaving over $15 million for seven players.  A big thumbs up to some quality bookkeeping here. 

This idea is plausible, but first you have to convince Selanne to make a return and the Ducks would have to come out and say that this is a good idea.  It's not a terrible idea, for the right price, of course.

Rental Players at the Olympics

We're only a week away before the roster freeze lifts and all hell breaks loose before the NHL trade deadline. This gives us ample time to have a look at the future rental players that are playing at the games and assess if their value has gone up or down because of the games.

There are plenty of rental players to choose from, but a lot of them didn't make their potential Olympic teams, likely because of age, production and/or style the coaching staff was looking for, but its those players who were taken to Vancouver from basement dwelling teams that I'll be looking at here, sorted by pool scoring.

Maxim Afinogenov, forward
Atlanta - 19 goals, 27 assists in 60 games
Russia - 1 assist in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $800,000

Afinogenov leads the way on the list and I would think he would definitely be a prime candidate to move when the roster freeze lifts, because he was under the guise of having him play with Ilya Kovalchuk all season. With Kovalchuk gone to New Jersey, he might be an attractive pick-up for a team hoping to add a second-line winger. His cap hit is reasonable enough that it won't be a terrible gamble, even if they had to lose him on waivers. As for an Olympic effect, I think Russia is getting what everyone thought they would from him, especially as a depth line winger.

Scott Niedermayer, defense
Anaheim - 6 goals, 31 assists in 62 games
Canada - 1 assist in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $6 million

It's not entirely clear whether or not Niedermayer will indeed be a rental player, especially if Anaheim decides to make a run at the playoffs. In Niedermayer, they could expect to get some good futures for the veteran rearguard, but if they want to use him for their own good, he'll be off the market. After three games in the round robin, it really doesn't look like Niedermayer's value has gone up, mostly because his ice-time has gone down and does not compare well to Shea Weber or Duncan Keith thus far. Nashville and Chicago likely won't be after Niedermayer, but teams still may want to add the veteran presence, but at what cost?

Marek Zidlicky, defense
Minnesota - 5 goals, 31 assists in 60 games
Czech Rep. - 5 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $3.35 million

Flying a little under the radar heading into the Olympics, Zidlicky is quietly having a pretty good season with the under-performing Minnesota Wild, but during the games, he's been racking up some points for a pretty good Czech Republic team. The Wild should be sellers when the roster freeze lifts and I would have to think there might be a bit of a bidding war getting ready for the blueliner. At age 33, he should have the veteran poise that most teams are looking for and brings some good offense to a team. If he can find his way onto a good team making a run, he should compliment their scorers well, especially on the power play.

Pavel Kubina, defense
Atlanta - 5 goals, 29 assists in 59 games
Czech Rep. - 0 points in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $5 million

Kubina might be considered an expensive option with a questionable amount of intangibles to justify his cap value. His scoring abilities are okay, as he's rated 157th in pool scoring this year, he does have a Stanley Cup ring from 2004, but I would still question what he's able to bring to a team, especially after his days in Toronto, where skills and intangibles went to die. Kubina should end up as a reasonable Plan B for some teams that are trying to shop for either Niedermayer or Zidlicky. No points and minimal defenseman minutes in the Olympics should see to that.

Saku Koivu, forward
Anaheim - 12 goals, 21 assists in 53 games
Finland - 2 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $3.25 million

Teemu Selanne, forward
Anaheim - 18 goals, 11 assists in 37 games
Finland - 2 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $2.625 million

With another pair of Ducks on the list, you would have to wonder whether or not they will be making any moves at the trade deadline when it comes to selling players. Both Koivu and Selanne have both dealt with injuries this year, which has had an effect on their numbers during the year, but they are both dressing for a solid Finland team in these Olympics and their teamwork has to be mentioned as a huge plus. Both players are on the older side of the ledger, which has negotiated some smaller cap numbers. Those cap numbers are very appealing to teams that want to add some veteran presence either down the middle or on the wing. Both players look exceptionally healthy at the minute and should get an audience, if Anaheim wants to have their Yard Sale.

Dennis Seidenberg, defense
Florida- 2 goals, 20 assists in 61 games
Germany. - 1 goal in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $2.25 million

The Panthers are in the midst of their fire sale phone calls and I would imagine that Seidenberg's experience with the German national team will increase his stock for the March Roster Thaw. A smaller cap hit, a potential UFA and the leading minute-getter for Germany should make him somewhat intriguing to a lot of teams. Seidenberg could also play in the rent-to-own motif, as he's young enough to be a player that teams would consider re-signing, given a good performance by the defender. Value has had to have increased, in my opinion.

Jere Lehtinen, forward
Dallas - 3 goals, 9 assists in 38 games
Finland - 0 points in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $1.5 million

It hasn't been a good NHL season for Lehtinen, who has suffered from injuries all season, only appearing in 38 games this season. The depth in Dallas has certainly dropped Lehtinen in the depth charts, limiting his ice-time and his ability to score more points to more of a defense-first role, which will be what he's looked upon to do, if he was to be picked up for a playoff run. His cap hit is very new team friendly and his role would be easily laid out, especially with a Stanley Cup ring already on his finger. With Finland, he's definitely playing third-line minutes and is a -1 for the team, but as a guy who should be taking on a team's top line and penalty killing, that's fairly reasonable. Value should remain the same.

Well, those are the players that are in the Olympics and could be dealt rentals, as they are all potential unrestricted free agents come July 1st. It's an interesting mix, especially if they were all to get dealt before the March 3rd deadline.

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Giguere to Detroit?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To Detroit	Position	Age	GP/MIN	Goals/Wins	Points	Years	Per Year
J-S Giguere	Goaltender	32	213	0	0	2	$6 million
Erik Christensen	Forward	25	7	0	0	1	$750,000
Luca Sbisa	Defenseman	19	9	0	0	2	$875,000
--------
To Anaheim	Position	Age	GP/MIN	Goals/Wins	Points	Years	Per Year
Brian Rafalski	Defenseman	36	15	1	8	3	$6 million
Jimmy Howard	Goaltender	25	322	2	4	2	$717,000

Well, I love crazy rumours and I love looking at them on a numbers basis. Today's rumour came from my Twitter feed, so I thought I would give it a link and see how it pans out.

This one sees the reportedly disgruntled J-S Giguere making his way out of Anaheim and heading to Detroit, who has been a part of many Giguere rumours, for a defenseman of equal cap value in Brian Rafalski and then some even out type players.

The element of this deal, which I find most interesting is the inclusion of Luca Sbisa, a prized young defenseman, who was sent back down to juniors again this season, as to think that the Ducks are so desperate to unload Gigure, that they would throw in a young player of this calibre. I would suggest that a high pick would go instead of Sbisa, just because the Ducks love their defensemen, which is shown by their desire to have Rafalski in return.

Erik Christensen and Jimmy Howard can make some sense, as Christensen is a healthy scratch all the time for the Ducks and Howard is a prepared back-up goalie for Jonas Hiller. I think that's a pretty suave move.

Cap-wise, this is a pretty straight-swap. Both teams were dealing with cap issues to start the season, but if all the books are equal here, then this deal could work in cap principle. Whether or not the Red Wings would be willing to move Rafalski, that would be the real question.

Giguere or Hiller?

It would be awfully silly to think that there wasn't a bit of a goaltending controversy at the beginning of the season in Anaheim, as both Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Jonas Hiller were both vying for the number one job. The argument was somewhat one-sided towards Hiller, as he received all the ice-time in the playoffs and played exceptionally well in doing so. Saying that, the Ducks and their coaching staff did maintain that the job was left wide open in camp, for either one to take.

On Monday, there was an interview that surfaced from down in California that has some direct quotes from Giguere, which is seemingly giving the Ducks an ultimatum to either move him or move Hiller.

With Giguere returning to the line-up from a groin injury there are questions being surfaced, in regards to this article. The Ducks have reportedly refuted the article as being true or accurate, which does seem awfully defensive and doesn't mean a great deal now. The trade winds have been surrounding Giguere have been blowing since the playoffs, around the time when Hiller was taking that number one job by the throat.

Thanks in large part to the Giguere injury, Hiller has played in 13 games for the Ducks, amassing a 6-5-1 record with a shutout, behind a team that has really yet to find their mid-season form. Hiller carries a 2.76 GAA and .919 save percentage, which are very respectable, especially for a goalie on a somewhat struggling team.

The other point of contention is that of the contract situation. Giguere is currently on the backend of a 4-year deal he signed in 2007, with another season after this with a cap hit of $6 million, while Hiller is in the final year of a 2-year contract extension, which has a cap hit of $1.3 million and will make him a UFA in the summer.

If this report and interview is actually accurate, the Ducks have a pickle on their hands. Giguere is the elder by five years and has experience of a Cup win, a Conn Smythe and another Cup Finals under his belt, but the younger Hiller doesn't have the experience, but is still earning the starts. With his pending free agency, the Ducks can mould the Swiss keeper under their projected cap number, which I believe is the tipping point for the Ducks. The interview (if true) should expedite the process of getting a trade done, but if he goes, he'll be going somewhere that needs a starting goalie, especially for the cost against the cap.

Hiller should continue to get the bulk of the starts, but if a trade doesn't happen in the next month, I would expect Giguere to get some showcase starts, trying to prove his value to teams that are interested.

Koivu Signing in Anaheim?

I like this idea, personally. This is one that is significantly unsubstantiated in the whole scheme of things, since the unrestricted free agents in the NHL won't be able to negotiate or have any contact with other teams until July 1st, but there was some suggestion that the Anaheim Ducks would be very interested in talking to Saku Koivu of the Canadiens.

The Ducks are not a team in salary cap trouble, sitting with only 13 players signed at a cap hit of $36.2 million, leaving an average of over $2 million for the remaining players of their 23-man roster. That should provide ample room for a reasonable signing cost for Koivu.

Koivu could also be in a position to be a little less of a cap hit than his $4.75 million that he was in his last deal in Montreal. His offensive production and overall health has diminished a bit over the past two seasons, which could make the pay cut a little more feasible, plus a good negotiation around the sagging economy may help a little as well.

The long-time captain of the Habs also has a guy like Teemu Selanne, a fellow Finn, who he could potentially centre a line with.

Pronger to the Kings?

Well, this was a pretty good rumour that I saw today and it might be for the wrong reasons. The Kings would be looking to acquire Chris Pronger from the Ducks for Jack Johnson and the 5th overall pick in the Entry Draft. This would be one hell of a blockbuster if it was actually dropped on the NHL world, as there is some pretty good skill to be picked up in the draft this year, especially from the five slot (see mock draft).

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Los Angeles	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Chris Pronger	D	34	82	48	$6.25 million
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Anaheim	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Jack Johnson	D	22	41	11	RFA
2009 1st Round Draft Pick (5th overall)

In Pronger, the Kings would absorb a large salary cap hit, which they could do well to afford and get themselves an All-Star defender to help out their club going forward. At 34 years old, Pronger still hasn't past his life expectancy in the NHL and should be able to help school the other young Kings defenders coming up the ranks. There are plenty of positives, when you look past his rough & tumble reputation.

For the Ducks, they would pick up the oft-injured Johnson, who hasn't fared well statistically in his first couple full seasons in the league. He has a significant amount of potential strapped to his name, but has yet to come close to fulfilling it. As a 3rd overall pick in 2005, he has already been traded once to the Kings from the Hurricanes and it wouldn't come as a terrible surprise to see him move again. Anaheim could be a good fit for him, especially if Scott Niedermayer is to remain with the team.

The real kicker in this deal is the fifth overall pick, which has all sorts of unlimited potential right now, two weeks before the draft is to actually happen. If anything, I would have picked the Kings to be big players in flipping the pick into something higher, so they could have a possible franchise player, like Matt Duchene or Victor Hedman.

The trade does have a little bit of merit in possibility, since Pronger is a highly valued player in the NHL. The Kings would have to think that he is worth a first rounder going forward to make this work, which I would think some teams would be thinking as well. The cap room is what makes this deal somewhat intriguing.