Nabokov on Waivers, Who's In On Him?

I've found myself some time tonight and looked at my StatCounter and found that some people were looking for the waiver order for Evgeni Nabokov, as he awaits to see whether or not he will be picked up by another team or be allowed to join the Red Wings' 23-man roster.  I can't believe the amount of anticipation to see what happens out in the Twitterverse, but I'll admit, I'm kind of excited as well.

So, as it stands, the Detroit Red Wings signed Nabokov to a 1-year deal, worth $570,000 annually, which works out to be about a $250,000 cap hit for the rest of the season. There is a no-movement clause to his deal, meaning any team that actually takes on Nabokov, won't be able to shift him to the minors or deal him without issue.  The Red Wings put those clauses in the deal, in order to try and stave off some interest from other teams and it should work in some cases.

As the waiver order goes, it goes from the lowest point percentage earned to the best, in terms of priority, if more than one team put a claim in for Nabokov.  Let's see how that shakes out.

First up is the Devils, as they are currently the worst team in hockey. Nevertheless, with Martin Brodeur starting to finally show some life in the Devils crease and a capable back-up in Johan Hedberg, those are two pretty good reasons why the Devils commented to the negative side, that they'll be in on Nabokov tomorrow morning.  Despite the bargain basement price of $250,000 for the rest of the season, the Devils are still wrestling with some cap issues of their own and don't need the headache.

The Oilers might be in the basement of the Western Conference, but I really think that their believe in their goaltending, as that really hasn't been the worst part of their season. They held onto Jeff Deslauriers and carried three goalies until it was safe for them to demote him, I don't think they want to do the same with Devan Dubnyk, who might be tempting to another team that may be in on Nabokov.

For my money, I really think the Islanders will take a shot on Nabokov, because they don't really have anything to lose. Rick DiPietro is playing an on-again, off-again schedule, they have two back-ups competing for time and the team still looks like they want to play spoiler for the rest of the year. They have cap space up the ying yang and they could really give their franchise goalie some more time to get back to 100% and to a point where he doesn't have to rest every other day.

Failing the Islanders desire to improve their goaltending status in the league for the rest of the season, the Senators are probably looking at their 13-point deficit in the East and thinking that they have an outside chance at making it with a goalie they can play for the rest of the season. For the cost, it isn't a bad gamble to take for most people's money, but there is also the thought process that they might as well give more time to Mike Brodeur or Robin Lehner, work the future in their favour.

With the rumour mill still churning J-S Giguere through, grinding him down into a trade-able pulp, the only real way I could see the Leafs picking up Nabokov, would be to deal away their already well-paid veteran goalie. They don't really lose anything in terms of skill, since Nabokov hasn't likely played much in the last month and had terrible numbers in the KHL, compared to Giguere's work today.  The Leafs are awfully tight to the cap ceiling themselves, so a deal has to be in place, no matter which way you slice it, by the looks of things.

The term rebuilding may have surfaced this week when talking about the Flames and it would seem awfully odd for this team, who hasn't had much traction in the schedule or in the win column, try to improve their standing with a veteran goalie like Nabokov. Miikka Kiprusoff almost looks like he's at his wits end this season and with Henrik Karlsson getting more starts, adding another chef for the stew doesn't make too much sense either today or tomorrow.  I don't expect the Flames in on Nabokov.

The Panthers are coming in at number seven and with the attitude that Tomas Vokoun has developed over getting passed over for Scott Clemmensen, it doesn't sound unreasonable that the Panthers would try to move Vokoun and bring in Nabokov to help finish their season off.  The word that I've read surrounding the Panthers is that the team is still trying to re-sign Vokoun to a new deal, which would likely suggest that a spur of the moment decision is unlikely for Dale Tallon and his crew.

The Sabres got off to a terrible start to the season, but that doesn't really effect Ryan Miller's stock too much, as their All-Star goalie is playing really well at the moment, minus Friday night's game against the Islanders, where bad luck was all he had.  Even if they were to claim a guy like Nabokov, it doesn't seem really likely that Nabokov would report, knowing full well that he wouldn't get the time that he wants to play.  Even if Nabokov was to get this far, I don't expect the Sabres to be anywhere near the Russian keeper.

Neither goalie in Columbus has been too jaw-dropping, but there seems to be a lot of faith in Steve Mason, in his 3rd season, and Mathieu Garon does play the back-up role fairly well. Adding Nabokov would be a pretty heavy sleight against Mason in this case and that just seems rather unlikely tomorrow.  The Jackets are only five points out of a playoff spot in the West, which might be that little itch that keeps Scott Howson up at night, but I have the feeling he'll sleep well.

The Los Angeles Kings have to be thought of as a team that is quite comfortable with their goaltending tandem going forward, no matter how poorly the team in front of them are going.  Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier are two quality goaltenders that have some long-term potential with the club and are doing a fine job of fighting for minutes as it is.  Nabokov would not be a very good fit, despite being just outside the playoff picture at the moment.

If the Atlanta Thrashers going to be thought of as players in the Nabokov sweepstakes, their mindset may be that Ondrej Pavelec may need some more help to develop his game and playing behind a regular season superstar like Nabokov would be a treat for his development going forward.  There is also quite the European flavour to the team, so Nabokov wouldn't be out of place and with Chris Mason on the Injured Reserve with a knee injury, there might be some room for him.  I could see Atlanta be in for the end of the year, helping to get into the playoffs.

The rumour mill has suggested that the San Jose Sharks would be putting a bid in for their former number one goalie, who they didn't re-sign to a contract, believing a deal would likely cost them an arm and a leg.  With a cheap deal already in place, Antero Niittymaki hurt at the moment and being a point out of the playoffs, it doesn't seem too far-fetched.  Antti Niemi has started to take the minutes now and the team has turned a corner of sorts, so picking up a guy like Nabokov would suggest that Niittymaki's groin injury may be more serious that initially reported.  It could be a full house if Niittymaki was to return to two starting goalies already there.

Already, I have found four teams out of these twelve that I think will take a long look at claiming Nabokov and with the Hurricanes with two good goalies, the Blues working over Jaroslav Halak, the Ducks riding Jonas Hiller, the Wild having Niklas Backstrom and Jose Theodore, the Avalanche riding Craig Anderson, it really begins to thin out the crowd.

The only other team beyond the Avalanche are the Chicago Blackhawks, who have been rather disappointing as defending champions, might not be terribly comfortable with the inexperienced Corey Crawford or the aging Marty Turco, who have been good enough to keep the Blackhawks in the playoff race, but confidence will likely become shaky when the playoffs roll around.  In theory, the Blackhawks may have enough cap space to fit in the small cost of Nabokov, so there is a chance a claim could be thrown in.  Will it get any priority?  Seems unlikely to me.

We don't have too much longer to wait, I know I'll be eagerly anticipating the news.

Looking at the Goaltending Holes in the NHL

I thought I would climb through the roster tables that I've put together for my Pool Outlook pages on my Hockey Pool Blog and I thought I would look at the goaltending holes I could find, especially when it comes to starting goalies. There are a few goalies on the market that will make the offseason awfully interesting. All of these holes will need to be filled or some positions could also be upgraded. Here's where I think those positions are and possibly how they might look to fill them.

The Thrashers don't have a goalie with many minutes signed on to their roster this Summer as of yet and they will be in the market for a goalie this year. Ondrej Pavelec is a restricted free agent and he'll be looking for a starting job, but it's unclear how much ice-time the team wants to give him at this point. The Thrashers have the ability to be in on an unrestricted free agent goalie, so that will likely determine a lot about Pavelec's role come October.

I wouldn't say that the Blackhawks have many holes to fill, as they could keep Cristobel Huet, who is signed on for a couple seasons more, while Antti Niemi could find himself out of the picture, but after winning the Cup, that does seem unlikely.  It isn't a good bet that the Blackhawks will be testing the unrestricted free agent market, but their crease is right in the middle of the rumour mill gears.  There's plenty of speculation and it's only a matter of time before we see some movement.

It does sound like that the Oilers are comfortable giving Nikolai Khabibulin a second chance with the team, after an injury-plagued year and some legal troubles away from the rink, so the number one spot is his to lose (for a while). The Oilers have a couple of restricted free agent goalies that saw plenty of time in 2010 in Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk, who might be able to fetch a decent enough return via trade. Khabibulin still has a few years left on his current deal with the Oilers and if he stays healthy, one of those two young goalies will get some itchy feet to move on.

Who is it going to be? Is it Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price as the number one guy for the Canadiens? Maybe the question should be, do they only keep one or do they keep both, as they are both restricted free agents, both hungry for number one minutes. If they only decide to keep one, the Canadiens will likely deal the other away, flooding the goalie market a little bit more and possibly bringing in a talented veteran to help the chosen one through the 2011 season.

How comfortable are the Flyers going forward with Brian Boucher and Johan Backlund going forward? If I had to guess, it would be... not very. Boucher was a solid replacement for some much needed minutes, when there was no one else. Backlund shouldn't be immature at age 28 (29 in July), but reliability at the NHL level does pop up as a reasonable question. I would imagine that the Flyers are going to be players in the startin goalie marketplace, but what can they afford or what are they willing to spend?

With some interesting talent potentially available on the open market, can the Sharks gamble their future on what they can afford on the open market or do they use the last couple weeks of June to try and give a new deal to Evgeni Nabokov, while they still have his exclusive rights? Personally, as of June 15th, I would have thought that if they wanted to keep with Nabokov, they'd have signed him already, but that's just me. They have some negotiating power with a good offense in front of whoever takes the crease, so maybe they'll be looking to try a fresh face in the crease in 2011.

I have seen word on Twitter from some of the Blues sources that talks are open between themselves and potential UFA Chris Mason, which would solve their goaltending issue, in terms of their number one guy. If I remember correctly, they have been going for over a week or so, which suggests that this is not a slam dunk. The Blues are a team that has plenty of flexibility around the cap and probably doesn't want to pay too much for Mason, but may open the purse strings for a big UFA goalie that has a better reputation in the league as a winner. I'm expecting the Blues to drive prices up on UFA goalies.

If you ask me, I think the Lightning are in a solid position to upgrade their goaltending, after giving a solid shot to Mike Smith to be their number one, but he might just fit better as the back-up there in Tampa Bay.  That isn't to say that Smith won't be the number one guy on opening night, but with a new General Manager in town, he might have some good ideas on how to help brace the crease for plenty of shots against in the 2011 season.  The Lightning are another team with cap room, so I expect them to be in the market to spend some money in the crease.

The Capitals have a situation not unlike the Montreal Canadiens, but with the likely departure of Jose Theodore to unrestricted free agency, the Capitals do have a couple of restricted free agents in Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, who may be good enough to platoon the number one job, but with the Summer quickly approaching, they might weigh their options, flash some superstars in the direction of a highly rated unrestricted free agent and then go from there.

Semin Part of a Major Deal?

A short and sweet post from Eklund suggests that the Capitals may be looking to a major trade, likely to move Alexander Semin and a "star goaltender most think is untouchable."

Anybody at all surprised that Semin could very well be on the block?  There is no question that the kid is talented, but he hasn't been terribly clutch for the Capitals, especially in the playoffs.  That $6 million cap hit this season does weigh his value down as a bargain, but maybe the kid just needs to go to a city where he can play top fiddle for a while.

As for the goalie who most people would think is untouchable would likely have to be Semyon Varlamov, who has been able to take most of the reps for the Capitals in the playoffs, but even then isn't quite as solid.  The Capitals may even be higher on Michal Neuvirth than we have been thinking.  That's awfully interesting, don't you think?  Heck, maybe it's Neuvirth that we think is untouchable in the organization and another team wants to give him the starting job somewhere.  Very tempting, either way.

If I was to offer two guesses, one West and one East... I would have to say it would be the Edmonton Oilers who swing this deal, with Nikolai Khabibulin going the other way... or it's the Atlanta Thrashers, who would take both Semin and Varlamov for some division jockeying, likely giving up one of their 1st rounders with a couple of youths.

The Oilers make some sense, because they want to have a superstar sniper, maybe even to go with Tyler Seguin, who could be their number one overall pick.  Certainly, a pie in the sky sort of dreaming, but definitely feasible with how they are structured against the cap and also not having to worry about Khabibulin anymore.

The Thrashers, on the other hand, really seem to like Russians nowadays and picking up a couple more could somehow put some more butts in the seats in Atlanta with some flash and dash in their line-up.  It would give Max Afinogenov a little more help on their offense and maybe give Slava Kozlov someone to mentor in Atlanta, possibly some more ice-time.

When you have vague statements like this Eklund post, the imagination can run wild, couldn't it?

Kozlov Asks For a Trade

The Thrashers are in the middle of somewhat of an overhaul and ever since the deal sending Ilya Kovalchuk out of town, there have been indicators that we could be seeing all sorts of changes to the Atlanta line-up before March 3rd. The healthy scratch posts about Slava Kozlov did give me the feeling that he'd be out of town sooner rather than later. Well, its being reported on Friday that Kozlov has asked for a trade and will waive his no-trade clause to end up with a contender.

Kozlov isn't enjoying a great season in Atlanta, having only 8 goals & 16 assists in 52 games with the Thrashers and has a horrible -16 rating. At age 37, you might get the feeling that his legs might not be helping him out much. He does have a lot of veteran experience, including a number of playoff runs with the Red Wings, including a Stanley Cup ring in 1998.

Well, Kozlov has an annual salary cap hit of $3.7 million, which is quite heft to look at, but when the roster freeze lifts, his remaining cap hit will be about $860,000. That's not a daunting number at all and there are a number of teams that could fit him into their fold, if they so chose to do so. Kozlov is also set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, so he may have picked up some interest as a rental, despite his no-trade clause.

I really wonder if the Penguins would like to take another shot at renting an aged veteran, hoping to rekindle his passion for the game. The Penguins have been thrown around the rumour mill about the Thrashers' Russians, which has some legs, because the Penguins have draft picks to throw about this year and the Thrashers must like the idea of a few more picks.

Nevertheless, I would think Kozlov would be worth a 3rd or 4th round pick only, which is pretty affordable to a contender, if they can fit a veteran player into their line-up.

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Rental Players at the Olympics

We're only a week away before the roster freeze lifts and all hell breaks loose before the NHL trade deadline. This gives us ample time to have a look at the future rental players that are playing at the games and assess if their value has gone up or down because of the games.

There are plenty of rental players to choose from, but a lot of them didn't make their potential Olympic teams, likely because of age, production and/or style the coaching staff was looking for, but its those players who were taken to Vancouver from basement dwelling teams that I'll be looking at here, sorted by pool scoring.

Maxim Afinogenov, forward
Atlanta - 19 goals, 27 assists in 60 games
Russia - 1 assist in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $800,000

Afinogenov leads the way on the list and I would think he would definitely be a prime candidate to move when the roster freeze lifts, because he was under the guise of having him play with Ilya Kovalchuk all season. With Kovalchuk gone to New Jersey, he might be an attractive pick-up for a team hoping to add a second-line winger. His cap hit is reasonable enough that it won't be a terrible gamble, even if they had to lose him on waivers. As for an Olympic effect, I think Russia is getting what everyone thought they would from him, especially as a depth line winger.

Scott Niedermayer, defense
Anaheim - 6 goals, 31 assists in 62 games
Canada - 1 assist in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $6 million

It's not entirely clear whether or not Niedermayer will indeed be a rental player, especially if Anaheim decides to make a run at the playoffs. In Niedermayer, they could expect to get some good futures for the veteran rearguard, but if they want to use him for their own good, he'll be off the market. After three games in the round robin, it really doesn't look like Niedermayer's value has gone up, mostly because his ice-time has gone down and does not compare well to Shea Weber or Duncan Keith thus far. Nashville and Chicago likely won't be after Niedermayer, but teams still may want to add the veteran presence, but at what cost?

Marek Zidlicky, defense
Minnesota - 5 goals, 31 assists in 60 games
Czech Rep. - 5 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $3.35 million

Flying a little under the radar heading into the Olympics, Zidlicky is quietly having a pretty good season with the under-performing Minnesota Wild, but during the games, he's been racking up some points for a pretty good Czech Republic team. The Wild should be sellers when the roster freeze lifts and I would have to think there might be a bit of a bidding war getting ready for the blueliner. At age 33, he should have the veteran poise that most teams are looking for and brings some good offense to a team. If he can find his way onto a good team making a run, he should compliment their scorers well, especially on the power play.

Pavel Kubina, defense
Atlanta - 5 goals, 29 assists in 59 games
Czech Rep. - 0 points in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $5 million

Kubina might be considered an expensive option with a questionable amount of intangibles to justify his cap value. His scoring abilities are okay, as he's rated 157th in pool scoring this year, he does have a Stanley Cup ring from 2004, but I would still question what he's able to bring to a team, especially after his days in Toronto, where skills and intangibles went to die. Kubina should end up as a reasonable Plan B for some teams that are trying to shop for either Niedermayer or Zidlicky. No points and minimal defenseman minutes in the Olympics should see to that.

Saku Koivu, forward
Anaheim - 12 goals, 21 assists in 53 games
Finland - 2 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $3.25 million

Teemu Selanne, forward
Anaheim - 18 goals, 11 assists in 37 games
Finland - 2 assists in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $2.625 million

With another pair of Ducks on the list, you would have to wonder whether or not they will be making any moves at the trade deadline when it comes to selling players. Both Koivu and Selanne have both dealt with injuries this year, which has had an effect on their numbers during the year, but they are both dressing for a solid Finland team in these Olympics and their teamwork has to be mentioned as a huge plus. Both players are on the older side of the ledger, which has negotiated some smaller cap numbers. Those cap numbers are very appealing to teams that want to add some veteran presence either down the middle or on the wing. Both players look exceptionally healthy at the minute and should get an audience, if Anaheim wants to have their Yard Sale.

Dennis Seidenberg, defense
Florida- 2 goals, 20 assists in 61 games
Germany. - 1 goal in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $2.25 million

The Panthers are in the midst of their fire sale phone calls and I would imagine that Seidenberg's experience with the German national team will increase his stock for the March Roster Thaw. A smaller cap hit, a potential UFA and the leading minute-getter for Germany should make him somewhat intriguing to a lot of teams. Seidenberg could also play in the rent-to-own motif, as he's young enough to be a player that teams would consider re-signing, given a good performance by the defender. Value has had to have increased, in my opinion.

Jere Lehtinen, forward
Dallas - 3 goals, 9 assists in 38 games
Finland - 0 points in 3 games
Annual Cap Hit - $1.5 million

It hasn't been a good NHL season for Lehtinen, who has suffered from injuries all season, only appearing in 38 games this season. The depth in Dallas has certainly dropped Lehtinen in the depth charts, limiting his ice-time and his ability to score more points to more of a defense-first role, which will be what he's looked upon to do, if he was to be picked up for a playoff run. His cap hit is very new team friendly and his role would be easily laid out, especially with a Stanley Cup ring already on his finger. With Finland, he's definitely playing third-line minutes and is a -1 for the team, but as a guy who should be taking on a team's top line and penalty killing, that's fairly reasonable. Value should remain the same.

Well, those are the players that are in the Olympics and could be dealt rentals, as they are all potential unrestricted free agents come July 1st. It's an interesting mix, especially if they were all to get dealt before the March 3rd deadline.

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Kovalchuk Vancouver-bound?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To Vancouver	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Ilya Kovalchuk	Forward	26	28	19	36	1	$6.389 million
--------
To Atlanta	Position	Age	GP/MIN	Goals/Wins	Points	Years	Per Year
Pavol Demitra	Forward	35	0	0	0	1	$4 million
Cory Schneider	Goaltender	23	78	0	0	1	$1.084 million
2010 1st Round Pick

Well, this one is a doozy, wouldn't you say? The Thrashers have been the focus of many rumours and speculation and this one is no different. This rumour is thanks to this tweet, which popped up on Sunday afternoon.

Ilya Kovalchuk is an impending unrestricted free agent this summer and the Thrashers have been trying to lure their 1st overall pick in 2001 back into the fold for the long-term with some contract talks. The trade speculation has been amplified because the talks are supposedly not going very well.

The Canucks are trying to find their stride in the Western Conference playoff race, sitting in 10th spot going into Sunday's action and if there was any meat to this rumour, it would suggest that the Canucks are looking to add more consistent scoring to help out their defensive play.

The Canucks, in fairness, should be looking to unload Pavol Demitra, because of his high price tag and inability to make an impact in the line-up and they have a good trading piece like Cory Schneider, who is considered to be one of the top goaltending prospects in the NHL. The first round pick is more of a piece that puts the deal over the top.

I can't see this deal going down in the slightest. The Canucks have no cap space and I don't believe they would pay that much for a rental player. The Canucks won't have the cap space in the coming seasons to deal a long-term Kovalchuk contract, so you can immediately say that this is a rental agreement.

Another point against the possibility of this deal would be that the Canucks are not built on offense or a true offense style. The Canucks are trying to pride themselves on defense and a good transition game and/or forecheck. Yes, Kovalchuk would improve the transition game, but I don't think he has the defensive responsibility that the Canucks are looking for.

Thrashers To Add More Russians?

In reading this morning's post from Eklund, it appears that the Atlanta Thrashers are still alive and well in the free agent market. The Thrashers have 19 players signed on for next season for an estimated cap hit of $44.8 million, leaving themselves about $12 million, if they wanted to fill their cap space up for the remaining four players.

I think the most surprising name is Nikolai Zherdev, who had already has his name in the ring in Russia. Zherdev may have not actually fully committed to the KHL, like it was suggested in August, leaving the door open to return to the NHL for the coming season. Zherdev has since been quoted as saying that he would be more than willing to play with the Thrashers, especially since his fellow countryman, Ilya Kovalchuk, is playing there currently. I'm sure players like Nikolai Antropov, Slava Kozlov and Pavel Kubina doesn't hurt either.

Also tagging along in the new Red Army rumours is Max Afinogenov, another unrestricted free agent looking for new work. Afinogenov has been struggling over the past few seasons, seeing his production drop significantly. It would be rather interesting to see if the possibility of a new scene and some familiar teammates would lift Afinogenov back up to his previous sniper status. He should be able to come at a cheap premium for the coming year, so if he was interested in playing with Kovalchuk or the other Russians, why not take that chance?

The Thrashers are a bit of wild card this summer, making some improvements to be a better competitor in the tight Southeast Division. A couple more moves like these signings may have an interesting effect on how other teams approach them in the first half of the season. With the cap space that they have left, they could make this splash and see what happens. It likely won't make them worse off.