Is the Price Too High for Fleury in Calgary?

It was asked of me this week, who I thought the best fit for the Calgary Flames would be, if they had their pick of a handful of potential free agent or trade bait goalies and my initial response was Cam Ward. Of course, that went south, when he re-signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this week.  I thought he would have been the most cost-efficient goalie, who plays well and knows how to play well behind sub-par defenses.

After the Ward signing, it became apparent, through the reports in the media, that the Flames have indeed extended their desires to Pittsburgh, calling on the availability of Marc-Andre Fleury to possibly be their next number one goalie.

Personally, I would maintain that the Pittsburgh Penguins would be very wise to keep Fleury on for the foreseeable future, because as much as Matt Murray dazzled us through the playoffs, he is far from an established goalie in the NHL.  He now has a good foundation, after a solid playoff run, but goalies get hot and then goalies can get cold, just as easy and it takes a lot more than one solid playoff run, where he was arguably taken care of well by his skaters up front, making up for some shaky play at times.  Surely, once the Penguins got deeper and deeper into the run, it became more about Sidney Crosby and his band of merry skaters, more than it was Murray and his rookie run.

The only way that I can see the Penguins parting with a guy like Fleury, who may not even be a great fit for the Flames, is with a pretty significant package coming back the other way.  And if the Penguins are not sellers, which I don't think should be (or are, for that matter), they can really set the bar high on this one and see if Calgary will bite.

With two weeks before free agency, to which Fleury will not be a part of, since he still has three more years left, the Flames don't have a hockey pool worthy (for more on being pool worthy, check out my actual hockey pool blog) goalie signed on for next season and they have one of the few cap numbers that are warm to the acquisition of Fleury's $5.75 million per year hit.

The Penguins are not in terrible shape at this point against the cap either, which allows them to be patient.  With Pascal Dupuis eligible for the Long Term Injured Reserve, I have the Penguins penciled roster in at $68.8 million for 19 players, including Fleury and Murray.   With only a few spots left to fill and anywhere between $3 and $6 million left to spend (cap number pending), their depth can be filled in quite easily.

With that being said, if I was the Penguins, my first request would be for a 1st round pick in any deal for Fleury.  He's a bonafide starter, he has two Cup rings (one of which he earned) and I can't stress this enough, he doesn't have to go anywhere.  The Penguins don't need to take on salary and the Flames don't need to deal salary, so a roster player doesn't need to be dealt, other than Fleury, so a myriad of prospects and lesser picks, going either way, would likely suffice here.

If the Flames hold out on that deal, they will look to unrestricted free agency to throw around some dollars and it is really slim pickins out there right now.  Chad Johnson of the Sabres, James Reimer of the Sharks, re-signing Karri Ramo, Al Montoya of the Panthers or Jonas Gustavsson of the Bruins... all heading to free agency and played last season.  There is a feeling that the time is dawn on their playoff window, with this core group of players and a starting goalie will give them a good jump on their day in the Sun, before the night falls and the cooler air will mean they have to shut that window again.  Those free agent goalies are not the answer, in my opinion, so it might be well within their interests to negotiate hard with Pittsburgh for a guy like Fleury.

Sweepstakes for Jagr?

Word that there is some suitor shopping going on by the agent of Jaromir Jagr has got a little bit of buzz to it these days.

The 39-year old Czech winger has spent the last few seasons as one of the best players in the Kontinental Hockey League in Russia and might be shopping his services around in the NHL in hopes that might get him some more money back in Russia, where salary caps don't really exist.

The rumour mill has the Penguins, Red Wings and Canadiens in on his services, although by the sound of some ramblings on rumour sites, Montreal may be less into Jagr than the other two teams.  The Penguins should have some pull, being the original team that Jagr played for in the NHL, while the Red Wings are a team that enjoys taking on ageing veterans for their poise and coach-ability, while the Habs are a team that have seemingly been on Jagr's radar, as a team that he would like to play for.

It is somewhat unclear as to how much a team would be able to offer a player like Jagr, as he had shown at the Vancouver Olympics, his skills haven't really diminished in his time over in Russia and he was a top-dollar player (whether he deserved it or not) when he was last playing in the NHL, back in 2008.

The Red Wings do have some cap space available, but I couldn't see them making a move for Jagr unless it was on their terms, which would likely put the cap hit down around $2.5 to $3 million, at best.  The Penguins are in even worse shape than Detroit, having less cap space to worry about, but the allure of a top end scoring winger for either one of their top two centres must have some appeal to it.

Personally, I have no nostalgic feeling for Jagr, so I could really care less as to whether or not he actually comes back.  If this isn't an elaborate ruse to suck more money out of the KHL teams, I would think that this is a significant blow to the KHL's credibility as a hockey league, especially one that is trying to rival the NHL.  Jagr wanted to play hockey closer to home and make a lot of money doing it, but I would think that the competitive drive of most players would still like the game to be at its best for a player of his calibre to still be playing in it.  Taking less money to play better hockey, that could be damaging for the KHL, if they ever could make a big push for another superstar free agent out of North America.

Penguins and Flames to Deal?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Calgary	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jordan Staal	Forward	21	82	21	28	49	3	$4 million
--------------
To Pittsburgh	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Eric Nystrom	Forward	27	82	11	8	19	0	UFA
Robyn Regehr	Defense	30	81	2	15	17	3	$4 million

I'm not sure where this rumour came from, but I've now seen it three times on Twitter and thought I would have a go with it, since it does have some juicy names on it.  The Flames would acquire Jordan Staal from the Penguins for the rights to Eric Nystrom and defenseman Robyn Regehr. 

Well, as it stands, this deal would have to hinge on the ability that the Penguins would sign Nystrom in just over a week's time and that they also highly regard him enough to do so.  The Flames, who are in a bit of cap trouble are likely going to lose Nystrom for nothing to free agency, while Regehr has not had a lot of great press in Calgary over the last little while.  The Penguins are going to be going into a new era, likely moving on without Sergei Gonchar for the 2011 season, a move for a defensive defenseman would surely help out both Kristopher Letang and Alex Goligoski.

In return, the Flames would get a very good centre, who has been playing much of the defensive centre role for the Penguins, but would get a chance to prove himself as a premier centre with the likes of Jarome Iginla, if this move were to happen.  It would be another experiment that has some potential, but an experiment nonetheless.  Furthermore, the elimination of Regehr from the roster would then make Jay Bouwmeester top dog in Calgary on the blueline, while Marc Giordano would likely be his partner in grime, so there is a positive there for most Flames fans.

The Flames would not necessarily be dropping any cap weight with this new deal, but they would be in a bit better shape with the proposed/rumoured 5% increase that could be on the books, plus they would have a number one centre in their line-up for a $4 million hit.  Not bad.

The Penguins definitely have room for Nystrom after the straight swap of Regehr and Staal, plus Nystrom's potential market value should only touch $2 million, barring some over-spending or a bidding war (which seems unlikely on either side).  So, for both sides, this deal does have some potential, cap-wise.

Too much hinges on this deal, especially the Nystrom signing.  The Penguins will likely keep their strength down the middle, as that is starting to become its own little trend among high-spending clubs.  The Penguins don't have the depth at centre to necessarily replace Staal, so I don't bank on this one happening, no matter how much the Flames or Penguins would benefit from this move.  If anything like this were to come to happening, I would expect some more elements to fall into place, just for security measures.