Is the Price Too High for Fleury in Calgary?

It was asked of me this week, who I thought the best fit for the Calgary Flames would be, if they had their pick of a handful of potential free agent or trade bait goalies and my initial response was Cam Ward. Of course, that went south, when he re-signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this week.  I thought he would have been the most cost-efficient goalie, who plays well and knows how to play well behind sub-par defenses.

After the Ward signing, it became apparent, through the reports in the media, that the Flames have indeed extended their desires to Pittsburgh, calling on the availability of Marc-Andre Fleury to possibly be their next number one goalie.

Personally, I would maintain that the Pittsburgh Penguins would be very wise to keep Fleury on for the foreseeable future, because as much as Matt Murray dazzled us through the playoffs, he is far from an established goalie in the NHL.  He now has a good foundation, after a solid playoff run, but goalies get hot and then goalies can get cold, just as easy and it takes a lot more than one solid playoff run, where he was arguably taken care of well by his skaters up front, making up for some shaky play at times.  Surely, once the Penguins got deeper and deeper into the run, it became more about Sidney Crosby and his band of merry skaters, more than it was Murray and his rookie run.

The only way that I can see the Penguins parting with a guy like Fleury, who may not even be a great fit for the Flames, is with a pretty significant package coming back the other way.  And if the Penguins are not sellers, which I don't think should be (or are, for that matter), they can really set the bar high on this one and see if Calgary will bite.

With two weeks before free agency, to which Fleury will not be a part of, since he still has three more years left, the Flames don't have a hockey pool worthy (for more on being pool worthy, check out my actual hockey pool blog) goalie signed on for next season and they have one of the few cap numbers that are warm to the acquisition of Fleury's $5.75 million per year hit.

The Penguins are not in terrible shape at this point against the cap either, which allows them to be patient.  With Pascal Dupuis eligible for the Long Term Injured Reserve, I have the Penguins penciled roster in at $68.8 million for 19 players, including Fleury and Murray.   With only a few spots left to fill and anywhere between $3 and $6 million left to spend (cap number pending), their depth can be filled in quite easily.

With that being said, if I was the Penguins, my first request would be for a 1st round pick in any deal for Fleury.  He's a bonafide starter, he has two Cup rings (one of which he earned) and I can't stress this enough, he doesn't have to go anywhere.  The Penguins don't need to take on salary and the Flames don't need to deal salary, so a roster player doesn't need to be dealt, other than Fleury, so a myriad of prospects and lesser picks, going either way, would likely suffice here.

If the Flames hold out on that deal, they will look to unrestricted free agency to throw around some dollars and it is really slim pickins out there right now.  Chad Johnson of the Sabres, James Reimer of the Sharks, re-signing Karri Ramo, Al Montoya of the Panthers or Jonas Gustavsson of the Bruins... all heading to free agency and played last season.  There is a feeling that the time is dawn on their playoff window, with this core group of players and a starting goalie will give them a good jump on their day in the Sun, before the night falls and the cooler air will mean they have to shut that window again.  Those free agent goalies are not the answer, in my opinion, so it might be well within their interests to negotiate hard with Pittsburgh for a guy like Fleury.

Hartnell Could Waive Goodbye

Reports are surfacing that Scott Hartnell was approached by the Columbus Blue Jackets back in February to provide a list of teams that he would approve to be traded to, waiving his no-movement clause to do so.  Obviously, a deal couldn't get done at the trade deadline for the scrappy forward, so he was left to finish the season with the Jackets and didn't exactly have the best of seasons, when it was all said and done.

Now, with the team looking forward, they could really use some more cap space and possibly find a player that is much better suited to the style of play that management and the coaching staff want for their club.  Heading into the Summer, you could look at their signed group of players and establish that they have about 19 players, including Hartnell, who would be in the lineup, when the puck drops in October, in theory.  This group is already coming in at $65.7 million, which wouldn't leave a lot of space for improvement through free agency, with fears that the cap ceiling isn't going to go up much, if at all.  The cap ceiling in the 2016 season was $71.4 million, just for measuring purposes.

Elliotte Friedman suggests in his 30 Thoughts from Saturday that teams are being considered are probably not keen on how much is left on Hartnell's deal, three more years at $4.75 million against the cap per year.  That's fair, especially since Hartnell hasn't exactly been a sure thing every year.  Between Nashville, Philadelphia and Columbus, already 15 seasons deep, how much does the 34-year old have left in the tank and what kind of consistency are you going to get from him?  Both are great questions, thus becoming a much bigger gamble.

Since he is already getting up there in age, you would have to believe that he is looking at teams that are trending upwards in their championship trajectory.  With those in mind, a lot of those teams are already facing cap issues, either already having players signed or they have building blocks that they want to take care of first.

Without any doubt, you can bet that Hartnell likely won't move until the salary cap numbers are announced and even more likely, when free agency opens up, teams start spending and then find out what they have left for Hartnell.

And then there is the return that the Blue Jackets want for Hartnell and Friedman reported that the deadline request for a return was quite high.  With the way the market is shaping up and likely how much the team wants to shed his salary, that the asking price will be somewhat lower than what it was at the deadline.  No team is going to take on this salary without sending some back in return and/or having the Jackets retain some of his money for the next three years.  The latter being less than ideal for the Jackets.

One team I could see making a move for Hartnell this Summer would be the New York Rangers, who have been cycling through the rumour mill, more so for their overhaul that could be coming this Summer, including a move to get Rick Nash off of their books.  I am not suggesting that Nash would go back to Columbus in a deal for Hartnell, that doesn't make any sense, rather, once the Rangers move Nash, if they do, they would have a lot more space to work with and they never seem to be afraid of sizable cap hits.

In a much less likely deal, the Buffalo Sabres could send troubled forward Matt Moulson and his $5 million cap hit for the next three seasons to Columbus for Hartnell and his three years remaining on his deal.  It's troubled player for troubled player, but this deal would not solve Columbus' salary cap crunch, rather it would make it less comfortable and that's not really what they want to accomplish here.  The Sabres could use Hartnell's leadership for the kids, while Moulson might be able to find some more scoring in the Jackets' system, which would make it a hockey trade, but still a head-scratcher.

The Anaheim Ducks also fall into the category of a perennial playoff team, which really showed some promise in the 2016 season and currently has some potential openings, where Hartnell's experience, grit and nose for the net could come into play.  They are a team that could absorb a good portion of Hartnell's contract, sending pieces in return and could be a pretty good fit.  The Ducks are closely looking at the numbers that the league comes up with, in terms of the cap ceiling, and they have decisions to make with restricted free agents, but it could be a good move on either side of the conference border here.

Do the Islanders Deal Okposo?

The +New York Islanders are closing in on the "winning now" philosophy, as their franchise has taken a while through the rebuilding phase of the process of the professional cycle, so it seems awfully strange, when the reports surface that they have the late-blooming power forward, Kyle Okposo, on the trade block, trolling for draft picks.

I don't think there is anything necessarily wrong with keeping your cupboards stocked up with some young talent, but dealing an established (and rare) player on your roster, just to keep those cupboards stocked, seems a bit hasty.  Sure, the Islanders don't have a pick until the 3rd round, dealing their 1st and 2nd in a botched Thomas Vanek deal and then flipping another 2nd rounder in the deal that brought Johnny Boychuk to town.

There has been a lot said about the 2015 Entry Draft, how deep it is and how valuable these picks are, but at the end of the day, it's still a crap shoot.  If teams are willing to part with these picks, in order to get an established veteran player, it gets them ahead in the race for the Cup, while your team is not sure how this draft pick is going to fare in your system.

The Islanders were only 5 points clear of the playoff race, as a whole, in the Eastern Conference and that's still a pretty slim margin of error they are playing with, given what they are trying to accomplish.

Unless, the Islanders were confident in prospects like Michael Dal Colle or Josh Ho-Sang making an impact on their roster for next season, I would be certainly hesitant to deal Okposo, who may not have a 30-goal season yet to his credit, but he does seem to have a great mix in the team, as it currently stands.  You could really argue that the team missed him dearly, when he was out injured.

There are some other factors to consider, when thinking about keeping him... what happens next Summer?  He becomes an unrestricted free agent in one year's time.  Can the Islanders foresee some issues with trying to sign him to a long-term contract extension?  At only a $2.8 million cap hit for the coming year, the 27-year old forward may look to get paid next year and that could put him out of the Islanders' budget for the 2017 season.  Can the team get some value now, as he tries out for a new deal on a new team?  That is a reasonable cap hit this season, one that could turn out to be a bargain, if he remains healthy.

A team I could see going after a guy like Okposo would be the +Columbus Blue Jackets, as they wanted this type of player in Nathan Horton, but lost out on his services, due to his overall health.  The Jackets have a few 2nd round picks, holding onto Toronto's (#34), their own (#38) and Anaheim's (#58).  The Jackets could do well with a guy like Okposo on their side, if they are willing to part with some key picks.

Upgrade Depth, A Stepping Stone to Fixing the OIlers

The Edmonton Oilers have been the butt of many of my own jokes, yet there really has been no movement from the ownership or significant rumours around players that management could move of late, but that won't stop me from putting up my first post on this blog site in years.

Over the last five year or so, I thought one of the best ideas among teams in their rebuild process belonged to the Florida Panthers, as they poached a whole bunch of Chicago Blackhawks players, as they sold off assets to clear cap space.  To me, this should be something that the Oilers should be looking into, especially with a number of teams on the verge of fire sales, thanks to some shaky salary cap numbers and the dropping Canadian Dollar.

With Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg, Torey Krug and Dougie Hamilton all up for new contracts through restricted free agency, the Boston Bruins bundle of cap space will be eaten up in a big hurry over the Summer.  Smith and Krug both took short-term deals to get to next Summer, where they should be handsomely rewarded.  Between the four of them, they could fetch North of $16 million for the lot, where they only have about $21 million to spend on 11 players, if the $73 million cap estimates from the Winter GM meetings is the ballpark number we're playing with.

The Bruins likely won't want to deal any of those four, as they likely see them as cornerstone pieces to this franchise going forward, which could mean that some depth may be up for grabs and frankly, that's what I think the Oilers need the most.  Not scoring, not goaltending, but quality depth.

The Oilers need some minutes eaten up, taking the pressure off the kids to do just about everything this franchise needs to win, things that they aren't exactly prepared to do or shouldn't have been asked to do, so early in their careers.

Let's not kid ourselves in Edmonton either... they are not exactly in salary cap heaven either.  By my count, thanks to good ol' CapGeek, they will have some decisions to make with some of their RFA's as well.  Nail Yakupov, Marc Arcobello, Justin Schultz, Martin Marincin and Brad Hunt all come to mind.  The Oilers have about $19.2 million to spend on eight roster spots, which isn't big money.  Thankfully, what they should be after is quality depth... it may not come cheap, but they shouldn't be shopping for top six players.

RUMOUR		2015 Season				Cap Hit
To Edmonton	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Chris Kelly	F	34	3	11	14	$3 million	$3 million
David Warsofsky	D	4	0	1	1	$600,000	RFA
---
To Boston	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Nail Yakupov	F	36	4	4	8	$925,000	RFA
2015 mid-round draft pick

To me, this is the kind of deal the Oilers can make with the Bruins and the Bruins can get something of what they wanted to help get their 2015 season back on track.

For the Oilers, they would get a quality 3rd liner with great PK experience and a defenseman that has his name thrown around as a pretty good up-and-coming blueliner, who can't seem to crack the depth chart.  Kelly is stable and fits within the budget going forward, while Warsofsky could likely sign for something short-term and cheap, giving the team the opportunity to take that horse for a run in 2016.

The Bruins, on the other hand, would get a scoring forward, who has a bit of a physical edge, something that Boston uses on a regular basis anyways.  The immediate cap savings would help the team at the deadline, help the team in July and speaking of July, Yakupov hasn't done much in his career to be worthy of a big raise, so he shouldn't cost nearly as much as Kelly would next season (in theory).

The next team I would try to hit up, from an Oilers perspective, would be the Philadelphia Flyers, who might not be in the worst shape, if the cap was $73 million, but if projections dip any lower, then they would have some interesting decisions to make.

Nevertheless, the Flyers could be in a spot where they could do with getting rid of some salary cap space, just to be a bit more flexible on the market next Summer.  At $73 million and Chris Pronger staying on the Long-Term Injured Reserve, I have the Flyers in with $10.8 million in cap space for six open roster spots, including a goalie.  The Flyers are fading in the East, despite huge numbers from both Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux, so selling pieces may be the way to go to help their cause in the long run.

In return, I could see the Flyers looking to get a bit younger, trying to find players that can possibly crack the roster next season and give the team a little bit more youthful exuberance.

RUMOUR		2015 Season				Cap Hit
To Edmonton	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Braydon Coburn	D	23	1	3	4	$4.5 million	$4.5 million
---
To Philadelphia	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
David Musil	D	0	0	0	0	$894,000	$894,000
Greg Chase	F	0	0	0	0	$746,000	$746,000
2015 mid-round draft pick

The Flyers will be looking for prospects and picks, if they decide that selling off assets is the way to go.  Dropping Braydon Coburn, who has been on the rumour radar for sometime now, would give them much more flexibility in the Summer and picking up a couple of well-sized prospects and a draft pick would likely go a long way to getting the job done.

Coburn would be the kind of player that would be looked upon to be a second pairing defenseman, mostly in the shutdown role, but with time and an extra look or two, he could just as easily feature as well as Johnny Boychuk, when he moved from Boston to Long Island before this season started.  Coburn has always seemed to play a lesser fiddle to other Flyers defensemen and a move to Edmonton would easily give him the chance to play real minutes in the top two pairings.

Sure, Coburn would come in just above the budget number, but it would definitely give the team more of what they need... sandpaper in that rough & tumble Pacific Division.

I don't think any of these ideas are generally outlandish and both would at least give the Oilers more depth where they need it the most and these guys could go out and protect the goaltending, which could always use a little bit more help and even provide some physicality, something most of the young stars on the team lack as a whole.

Personally, I would be hard pressed to move a kid like Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle right now, even though they really have nothing to show for their time with the team.  Hall has posted some good numbers, but hasn't won, where Eberle hasn't posted numbers, but that doesn't mean they are not right for the job.  The Oilers haven't given their stars an opportunity to shine, just more reasons to fail.

If the Oilers start using their young pieces in deals to upgrade their depth, especially doing deals with Eastern Conference teams, everyone can start moving in the right direction together.

Nash is Available, Any Favourites?

It really seems unfathomable that a guy like Rick Nash would eventually become available on the trade market, but this is the story that has dropped today and now we can all play with the different scenarios that turn in the hamster wheel we call our brain.

Let's consider the surface facts about Nash, before we get a little too crazy with who and what could possibly transpire.  Nash, 27, has scored 40+ goals twice in his nine seasons in the NHL, he's been to the playoffs once and played four games in his one series and will come with a $7.8 million cap hit for six seasons after this season has finished.  Nash also has a no-movement clause, which means that he will have to waive that clause and accept the deal he is eventually (if at all) moved, so he gets his choice of team to play for.

Now, since Nash has his choice of team to play for, we can only speculate what he would be looking for in a new uniform, be it close to home (Brampton, ON), a perennial playoff contender, former international team teammates, a new rebuild where he could be front and centre again... it's hard to say what's going on in his mind.  I would have to imagine that he would want to win really bad, since he really hasn't been able to do that in Columbus.

Also, it will have to be considered that the Blue Jackets will also have to find a deal that is well-suited to their needs, which is a fresh rebuild.  A tweet this morning from Darren Dreger from TSN suggests that it will be young players that will be front and centre in trade demands from Columbus and likely some pretty high draft picks.  The price will be steep, but with a potential 50-goal scorer and an international level winner, it could certainly be worth it.

Well, let's look at the immediate favourites, as per the rumour mill and ask some of the pertinent questions.  The two teams that have come up as big favourites for Nash are Los Angeles, New York and Toronto, as they have been rumoured to make some big pushes.

Would Nash want to play in Los Angeles?  The Kings are in the playoff picture as we speak, they have quality talent to surround him with in Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick (just to name a few) and they are committed to putting a winning team together.  That should be good enough to entice Nash to say yes to a trade, despite being on the opposite coast.  What could the Kings offer Columbus?  The going rumour in the mill is that the Kings will offer up Jack Johnson in a package going the other way, which may have to include Jonathan Bernier and some draft picks, to which the Kings do have their 2012 1st round pick in house.  I think the Kings could fit something in for making that push today and down the road.  Could the Kings fit Nash into their budget?  If Johnson was to go the other way, I would say yes.  According to CapGeek, they would be pretty close for the rest of the season and then there could be some creative movement in the off-season to accommodate the long-term contract, but it's certainly possible.  How likely does a move to Los Angeles seem?  It's in the realm of possibility, especially if the Jackets were to get Johnson and Bernier, starting the build from the back end.  Getting a quality goalie would be fairly clutch for Columbus.

Would Nash want to play in New York?  All signs would say yes.  They are among the league's elite this season, they play a very gritty style of play with speed and have playmakers to suit the needs of a superstar like Nash.  What could the Rangers offer Columbus?  This would be a good time to explore movement of a kid like Chris Kreider, who is far and away the Rangers' most prized prospect.  The Rangers don't have a great deal of top end talent in the back end, besides some of the young blueliners that are already on the team, nor do they have the goaltending prospects of a Los Angeles or Vancouver to make it really interesting.  Could the Rangers fit Nash into their budget?  Not without some moving cap space the other way.  The Rangers do have quite a bit of room, according to CapGeek, but with Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik, Marc Staal and Henrik Lundqvist already on board for big money, there is going to be some top heavy lines out there for New York.  How likely does a move to New York seem?  We all know the Rangers' affinity for big name players and spending a lot of money, not to mention moving money around so they can spend more money.  I would say that the Rangers are not necessarily a favourite, just because they may not have as much to offer than other teams.

Would Nash want to play in Toronto?  Well, it's about as close to home as he can get, so that's got to be a big selling point.  The Leafs are finally in the playoff race, as a team that is on the move, making good decisions and building well around some key players.  Homesickness would be the biggest key in this decision, as I think he could find better teams to play for today. What could the Leafs offer Columbus?  The Leafs are building a good base of prospects that could have some value to other teams, like Joe Colborne, Nazem Kadri, Keith Aulie and Luke Schenn, but no real good goaltending prospects, which the Leafs haven't showcased already.  The Leafs do have draft picks again, but mortgaging more 1st round picks for a star player, as successful as it looks now, looks a tad harsh from the outside, but certainly possible.  Could the Leafs fit Nash into their budget?  I think if there is a good roster player going the other way, like a Schenn, this should be no problem.  The Leafs are playing with some cap space, but this would likely be the only real deal that Toronto would make around the deadline.  How likely does a move to Toronto seem?  It seems like this would be a move that Brian Burke would be hard-pressed not to make, just to have a top quality player like Nash on his team is quite alluring and he has a knack for kicking the tires of the best players available.  I don't know if Toronto has enough to give up though, but they could dress up a deal with more quality picks to make up for a lack of goaltending.

As of right now, I think the Kings are my immediate favourite of the big three, Bernier would be a great player to pick up, especially with Steve Mason being hung out to dry as the goat of the team.  A top end goaltending prospect in return, plus going to a team with some real potential, it has the makings of a good deal.  Other teams that may have some goaltending available to move, like Vancouver, may struggle with the salary cap and the long-term outlook of Nash, but it isn't like they wouldn't ask what Columbus would be interested in.

Blue Jackets in on Jeff Carter?

RUMOUR			2010-2011 NHL Statistics				July 1st Status
To Columbus	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jeff Carter	F	26	80	36	30	66	11	$5.3 million
--------------------------
To Philadelphia	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jakub Voracek	F	21	8	14	32	46	0	RFA
2012 1st Round Draft Pick

Now, this is what I call an excellent trade rumour!

Not long after the Philadelphia Flyers acquired Ilya Bryzgalov from the Phoenix Coyotes, the flags started going up, asking the question, how the hell are the Flyers going to sign a goalie that wants top dollar for the long-term to a deal with so much cap trouble as it is?  The easiest and most likely answer is that a player of significant value, possibly two players that add up to significant value, would have to depart in order to get this to go.  Hence this rumour.

As you can see in the trade table above, the Blue Jackets will help the Flyers out by moving some serious assets to Philadelphia to acquire Jeff Carter, a player of reasonable magnitude and good offensive skill.  The Jackets would send Jakub Voracek, an under-whelming prospect with Columbus, who becomes a restricted free agent in July, and the team's 1st round pick at the draft in a couple of weeks.

Let's quickly look at the Flyers, who not only clear some space for the signing of Bryzgalov, they get to name their price with a talented centre in Voracek, who could very well be signed for the short-term for some testing out money, and a decent 1st round pick (8th overall) to help build their youthful depth.

For the Jackets, they have the cap space to take on a top end centre like Carter, who should give some immediate help to a winger like Rick Nash, likely increasing their fantasy value for the 2012 season, which is one thing that the Jackets are desperately seeking.  In order to win now, the Jackets would almost be silly not to make this deal, granted they are probably the team pushing this one in the end.

I like this rumour a lot, I think both teams could certainly benefit from this one in a lot of ways.  Granted, this is a deal that is almost too good to be true, so it will be interesting to see whether or not this one goes down before or at the draft.  The only thing I could see slowing this deal down is that the Flyers would not really want to part with Carter, but their depth down the middle is very impressive and Carter has fallen down the depth charts behind Claude Giroux and Mike Richards.

A Flames & Devils Blockbuster?

RUMOUR			2011 Season				2011	Remaining
To New Jersey	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Cap Hit	Years	Cap Hit
Jay Bouwmeester	Defense	27	49	4	12	16	$6.7 million	4	Same
Rene Bourque	Forward	29	47	15	13	28	$3.3 million	5	Same
Mikael Backlund	Forward	21	41	5	6	11	$1.3 million	1	Same
1st Round Draft Pick
3rd Round Draft Pick
--------------------------
To Calgary	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Cap Hit	Years	Cap Hit
Zach Parise	Forward	26	12	3	3	6	$3.1 million	0	RFA
Brian Rolston	Forward	37	31	5	10	15	$5.1 million	1	Same
Bryce Salvador	Defense	35	0	0	0	0	$2.9 million	1	Same
Mattias Tedenby	Forward	20	26	5	6	11	$875,000	2	Same
Vladimir Zharkov	Forward	23	10	1	1	2	$850,000	0	RFA

Well, our good friend, Eklund, has given us a real doozy to ponder over... and for the most part, laugh at considerably.  I mean, this is a blockbuster by all standards of trades, but the names and dollar figures going either way just make this rumour into a beautiful mess of impossibility, in my opinion.

For one, I can't see the Devils ever moving Zach Parise without some sort of falling out or contract dispute.  Secondly, all of the players heading to Calgary in this deal have been problematic or injured for the better part of the 2011 season, none of which, in my opinion, would be tempting for any NHL team, including a fumbling team like the Flames.  Next, the Flames have made mention of the word "rebuilding," so trading top end draft picks is somewhat counterproductive to that cause, despite getting a franchise player like Parise.  Even if the Flames were to get a player like Parise, I can't imagine what kind of deal he would be seeking in the Summer, so that would only further handcuff the Flames and their salary cap dealings.

No, this deal, as exciting as it may be, does not seem at all reasonable.  I'm sure there are plenty of other reasons I have yet to even make mention of yet, but I think the ones that were mentioned were more than good enough.

Hemsky for Weiss?

			2011 Season				2011	Remaining
To Florida	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Cap Hit	Years	Cap Hit
Ales Hemsky	Forward	27	31	9	20	29	$4.1 million	1	Same
--------------------------
To Edmonton	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Cap Hit	Years	Cap Hit
Stephen Weiss	Forward	27	42	13	18	31	$3.1 million	2	Same

One of the few rumours that have one name going for another has dropped over the weekend and showed up again this afternoon, as the going rate is the Edmonton Oilers moving scoring winger Ales Hemsky down to Florida for playmaking centre Stephen Weiss.

From the first glance, I kind of like this rumour, as it looks like it could help out both teams right from the get-go.   Hemsky would provide some much needed offense to a Panthers team that has an outside shot at a playoff spot, while Weiss would add some depth down the middle, likely taking a number one or number two spot at the pivot position between some quality young talent.

This deal also has the benefit of being a wash for the salary cap, since neither team have any cap concerns and it is only a difference of $1 million going either way this season, but Weiss is locked in for another year, which likely appeals to the Oilers all that much more.

The real trouble that I have with this rumour is that the Panthers aren't necessarily deep in the centre position as it is, so moving their top scoring skater, who also plays the centre position for a 1st line winger doesn't exactly seem like a great trade off, unless there are some more pieces to this deal.  The Panthers are very plentiful at the wing position, but I don't really see many that could slide into the middle and make an impact.  The addition of Hemsky would definitely give the Panthers some more zip, but even in Edmonton, it's been somewhat proven that Hemsky needs a bit of help to be truly effective.

That all being said, a straight one-for-one deal doesn't seem to be terribly likely as a standalone transaction.  The Panthers, if they really were to be moving towards a playoff spot, would likely have to have another player coming back that they could use on their roster or another deal in place to somehow make a deal like this one pay off right away.

This still does sound like a decent rumour, who's to say it really has legs, but in some respects, it does kind of make sense today.  It could be a great deal, if the Panthers have something worked out to make that final push, in my opinion.

Possible Big-Name Rentals in 2011

I haven't found a great deal of sizzling rumours to spell out in the past few weeks, as there really hasn't been many hands tipped in that general direction. There have been a number of names churned through the rumour mill, but no names have really been attached to other names, so there is little we can actually play with. So, I thought I would have a crack at pointing out some of the possible rental players, that may or may not be available at the trade deadline at the end of February.

Generally, when you're talking about rentals, you are looking at players who are going to be unrestricted free agents in the Summer, which suggests a team can use the player's talents through the end of the regular season and hope they help during a long playoff run and then not have to worry about them on their books anymore.  Rental players are also coming from teams that have little hope of making the playoffs, in most cases, hoping to get something back, like draft picks or prospects, for players that might otherwise leave the team in the off-season anyways through free agency.  There are plenty of exceptions to these guidelines, but the discussion usually reverts back to the guidelines.

But of course, we'll start the post off with an exception to the guidelines, as Brad Richards' name keeps landing in the rumour mill and likely for good reason.  The Dallas Stars are still running into ownership issues, which suggests some serious cash flow problems.  Richards, a top 10 scorer in the NHL this season, has done a marvelous job with the team, but there are many questions abound as to whether or not the Stars will have the ability to re-sign him to the numbers he'll likely demand.

Richards' 2011 annual cap hit is $7.8 million and the Stars had committed to that contract long before the ownership issues came to pass.  That being said, there will be (or likely has been) a great deal of internal discussion as to whether or not the team can afford not to have him on their payroll, especially since they lead the Pacific Division standings with him in the line-up.

I really don't think it is a matter of 'can he get dealt?', rather it being a matter of 'will he get dealt?'

Next up on the list is our first goaltender of the bunch and there has been plenty of scuttlebutt surrounding Tomas Vokoun of the Florida Panthers.  Vokoun will be an unrestricted free agent this Summer and has been having a mediocre season with the 11th place team in the East.  Teams looking to shore up their goaltending situation going into the playoffs may have a second or third look at Vokoun down this last stretch before the deadline, knowing full well that he can play some pretty good hockey.

The Panthers have a pretty good situation going for them in Florida at the moment, stocking up on some excellent prospects to go with some of their younger veterans, trying to build a solid contender.  Some of those prospects are also goaltenders, like Jacob Markstrom or Alexander Salak.  The sticking point for the Panthers would likely have to be whether or not they would like to have a guy like Vokoun for another season, waiting for their prospects to mature, or jump right into the young player game and let their prospects ride.

I'm sure there are a number of teams who are willing to look at the remainder of Vokoun's $5.7 million salary cap hit, just to give them some added security down the stretch, likely for a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick in the Summer.

Next up on the list sits Alex Tanguay, who may come in as a runner-up prize to the likes of Richards, in the sense that a team could be looking for a quality play-making forward.  Tanguay will also be a decent runner-up prize, because his annual cap hit is so much lower than Richards' at $1.7 million and going to a contending team should make it rather appealing for him to waive his limited no-trade/no-,movement clause, if he has to.

It's no secret that the Flames have definitely been struggling in the 2011 season and with new management in place to make some changes to the team, a guy like Tanguay is ripe for the picking, when it comes to making deals for future assets, like picks or prospects.  I could definitely see Tanguay go for a reasonably low set of draft picks.

The name that keeps popping up in trade rumours continues to be Tomas Kaberle of the Maple Leafs and despite his desire to stay in Toronto through this contract, the Leafs do have a very valuable asset on their hands, in terms of what they can get back via the trade market.

Kaberle has been having a pretty decent season in Toronto, despite their low scoring numbers, and that has to remain attractive to a playoff-bound team that is looking to increase their production from the back end.  The addition of Kaberle to most bluelines should be an easy fit and the value going back to Toronto could be adequate to calm some of the critics down.  Of course, the description of the package going back to the Maple Leafs would be a real indicator as to how the team will approach the 2012 season, but that's another story altogether.

I don't personally think that the chances of the Maple Leafs moving Kaberle are that good, but me saying that probably increased his chances by 15%.  If the Leafs get the deal that they really want out of Kaberle, I would imagine that there would be a relentless pursuit to force his hand and waive the clause, but so many factors are in the way before they get to that point.

Let's face it, the Devils have been terrible this year and they are in a good position to start selling off some of their unrestricted free agent assets, especially since they have already traded away their (former) captain, Jamie Langenbrunner to Dallas, this season.  Jason Arnott's name has popped up a few times already in the past weeks as a possible name to move and frankly, it makes sense.  Arnott is a quality forward with leadership qualities, he has a Cup ring and experience and he will be an unrestricted free agent in the Summer.

Arnott's numbers are down considerably in the 2011 season, but the New Jersey Devils have not been the best model of great offense throughout their line-up this season, to date.  With firepower like Zach Parise on the shelf for the bulk of the year and Ilya Kovalchuk underachieving, it should come as no surprise that the rest of the players are coming up a little short.  Still, at the end of the day, Arnott should garner some interest from a team that is in need of what he has to offer and should find a new home with a new opportunity.

Could the Ottawa Senators possibly move Alexei Kovalev in a deadline deal this year?  Well, it's hard to believe that anyone would take Kovalev on his merits from this 2011 season, but the NHL is a funny place sometimes and some managers seem to think that some players can still add something to their team, even if that player has had a bad run of things in the current season.  There might be hope for a guy like Kovalev, but his $5 million annual cap hit may have a lot to do with him staying in Ottawa for the duration of the season.

Kovalev does still have some talented hands on his side and the rumour mill does keep churning his name around, so there does seem to be a little bit of smoke around his name.  If I had to guess, I would think that Kovalev may be one of those secondary prizes at the deadline, as many teams will covet the same player, but only one team will get that top end player, forcing a team that still wants to make a move into picking up a guy like Kovalev.  If Kovalev does go, he might be a guy that goes for a cheap draft pick, near the end of the day on the 28th.

Whether or not any or all of these players are going to be traded remains to be seen.  The rumour mill will continue to churn out names that have potential to be moved, but it all really depends on the supply and demand of the teams involved.  Some teams may want way too much for players of this calibre to be moved, especially a team like the Dallas Stars, who may only part with Richards if the price meets their satisfaction.  I am definitely looking forward to the deadline this year... I might even have to take a day off for it.

Zajac for Regehr?

RUMOUR			2010/2011 NHL Statistics
To Calgary	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Travis Zajac	Forward	25	26	3	8	11	3	$3.89 million
--------------------
To New Jersey	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Robyn Regehr	Defense	30	26	0	3	3	3	$4.02 million

A new rumour to play with... hooray!

From the Hockeybuzz article this morning, "Calgary would like to grab Zajac, NJ wants Regehr...of course there would be more... each team would want a young, cheap player to replace the player they are trading as well..."

Yes, I know... Hockeybuzz is considered rubbish, but I love rumours, no matter how rubbish they may or may not be.  I'm not afraid to admit it either.

So, it's fair to say that this deal is based on filling needs that both teams have at the moment.  The Flames need a centre to help their scoring woes, preferably one that can be a number one centre, while the Devils desperately need some defensive help, since Anton Volchenkov and Bryce Salvador can't stay healthy.  In this sense, it kind of makes sense.

On the other hand, who is actually scoring for the Devils that they can make a deal that sends offensive talent out the door?  Even if the Devils want to go back to playing those 1-0 or 2-1 kind of games, they will actually need someone to score those goals.  With no Parise, cold scoring from Kovalchuk, Rolston, Langenbrunner and Elias, who else is left?

For the Flames, one of their biggest problems, besides diminished scoring from their top six, is some of their atrocious defense they have been playing and moving a stalwart defenseman like Regehr is just going to leave an even bigger hole on the blueline.

Looking at the cap numbers, this deal appears to be somewhat of a wash, value-wise, but even still, the Devils are taking on an extra smidgen of cap space, which can't possibly appeal to their capologist, despite some early Long Term Injury Reserve time for guys like Brian Rolston.  The Devils cap number has been poked and prodded so many times, it would be hard to get an exact reading, but if any deal was to come down, I would imagine that one of those extra pieces mentioned going to Calgary would have to be a defenseman that is currently on the roster, like a Matt Corrente or a Mark Fraser.  The Flames would then send one of their medium-level forward prospects the other way, so the Devils don't take on any more space right away, possibly a Kris Chucko or John Armstrong.

Frankly, if this deal is to have any legs at all, both teams have to hope that they are going to get some more offense/defense from adding more defense/offense. Even then, it doesn't really matter what kind of cheaper, younger talent goes either way, this deal does appear to be on the dark edges of crazy.

Saying that, Sutter and Lamoreillo haven't quite been themselves over the last 12 months...

Iginla to the Kings?

RUMOUR		2010/2011 NHL Statistics
To Los Angeles	Position	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jarome Iginla	Forward	16	3	7	10	3	$7 million
--------------------
To Calgary	Position	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Brayden Schenn	Forward	8	0	2	2	3	$3.14 million
Other considerations

Gee whiz, you step away from the computer for a night and the hockey world goes a blitz with a trade rumour between the Flames and Kings, which would see Jarome Iginla head down South to Los Angeles for a package that would include Brayden Schenn.

First of all, I'm not going to write this off as wild talk, because the early building blocks has some kind of merit to it, since the Kings want to win now and the Flames could be on the verge of rebuilding.  I don't think either of those statements are far-fetched, but this whole notion is taken with a grain of salt.

The Kings have found themselves in a very interesting position as we close on the quarter-pole of the 2011 NHL season as the Western Conference leaders and a trade for a player like Iginla would be the sort of move that could keep the team in that fine position, especially if they could trade pieces that are not necessary to the team's immediate success, like Brayden Schenn.

The Flames on the other hand are in a state of limbo in the public's eye and only Flames management know exactly where the team is heading in the foreseeable future.  As much as the rebuild idea does have some merit with the team mired in 14th place in the Western Conference, the Flames are only 5 points behind the 8th place Phoenix Coyotes and a comeback is definitely possible, which would mean that if Iginla was to go anywhere, the Flames would require players that would help them to win now.

As for Iginla, there is plenty of scuttlebutt around how happy he is with the team and/or his play of late, which is leading to more smoke from the rumour mill and even that doesn't seem to be far-fetched.  The question then becomes, would Iginla waive his no-movement clause and accept a deal to California in a deal, which would see him join a current contender.

The salary cap numbers do provide an interesting challenge to this rumour, as the Kings were projected to be in tough for any big additions to their side going into the year, but they would be able to dump a good chunk of what they'd take on if Schenn's entry-level cap hit was struck from the books.  I don't have anything in terms of concrete numbers, but I would imagine that the package heading back up to Calgary would have to be somewhat sizable from their own roster.

In the overall scheme of things, there are a lot of wheels that have to be in motion for this deal to go down.  A lot of approvals need to be made from a lot of different people, especially some people that haven't been in consideration up until this point.  This deal is not a rental agreement, since Iginla still has two more seasons after this one on his contract, so there is that to deal with and whatever the Flames decide in terms of how they want to proceed with the rest of their season and their long-term plan.

I won't write this idea off, but I can definitely see it getting ki-bosh'd at some point or another because there was a no keeping any progress from happening.

Commodore for Souray?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Columbus	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Sheldon Souray	Defense	34	37	4	9	13	2	$5.4 million
--------------
To Edmonton	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Mike Commodore	Defese	30	57	2	9	11	3	$3.75 million

The latest rumoured solution for the Edmonton Oilers and their standing history with Sheldon Souray is to deal him to Columbus for veteran defenseman Mike Commodore.

This rumour has been picking up some steam in the past couple days, especially with an early injury to Kris Russell in training camp and now on Monday morning, there have been a tweet from Ryan Rishaug of TSN (here), confirming that this deal has been batted about, although it sounds like it was a while ago.

To me, this deal doesn't look terrible from either standpoint.  The team that truly stands to gain is more likely the Oilers, since Souray is not going to be at their camp and he now is a potential $5.4 million lump against the salary cap without even playing a game for the team.  Of course, there will be ways around, but this is kind of where it stands at the moment.  The Oilers bringing in another body to replace the cap lump would be a huge win.

The knock on Commodore is that he can have seasons where his health is kind of sketchy and his body finds ways to get injured, but then he can also have 80+ game seasons and he's a solid figure on the blueline.  He doesn't score a great deal, not really a great hockey pool player, but at least he can give a team some solid minutes.

For Columbus, acquiring Souray would be a definite upgrade offensively on the blueline, but even more so of a health-risk during the season.  Souray is a member of the injury prone list, as of this year, and is coming off of another harsh season between a concussion and a broken hand (which happened when he tried to avenge his concussion).  There's no question that Souray will be able to give the Blue Jackets what they want on their power play, but the price tag is awfully high and there are no guarantees about his health.

Neither team is stressing about the cap ceiling going into the regular season, but a move like this would have the Blue Jackets a little closer.  The Jackets currently sit at a projected number of $54.5 million with Commodore on the books, which would take on another $1.7 million with the acquisition of Souray.  The Oilers are currently pretty low on my projected list, but that is currently without the rookie bonuses of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi. Nevertheless, the Oilers would also be saving money on this straight-up deal, if it were to happen.

I don't buy this deal and its probably for the same reasons that Howson has bitten on it (as per the Rishaug tweet), the risk is just too high.  With the Oilers, there is no risk in a straight-up deal like this, because Commodore is much more durable than Souray and that isn't saying a great deal about Souray.  The Oilers would likely have to part with another piece for the Blue Jackets to take this deal on, likely for the sake of security that they are getting their money's worth.  This is definitely a spot where Andrew Cogliano could come in handy, throwing him in the mix, while the Jackets throw in a pick, just to call it square.  To me, that would make a lot of sense to both sides.

Souray for Fleischmann?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Washington	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Sheldon Souray	Defense	34	37	4	9	13	2	$5.4 million
--------------
To Edmonton	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Tomas Fleischmann	Forward	26	69	23	28	51	1	$2.7 million

Well, I saw this trade rumour in a couple of tweets (one & two) this afternoon and thought I would have a good time with this one.  The Oilers would move unhappy defenseman Sheldon Souray out of town for Tomas Fleischmann, a scoring winger who has had some longer contract negotiations with the Capitals and only seems to sign on a year-to-year basis.

Souray has been on the blog a couple of times since he had requested to be traded out of Edmonton, so it should be no surprise that he is back, since he hasn't been moved yet.  The Capitals would be an interesting fit for Souray, as they are in need of a bit more veteran scoring from their blueline, lessening the pressure on young John Carlson, who is emerging as a real blue chip prospect. 

The cap hit for Souray is a pretty big one, but with the way the Capitals are built at the moment, they could use twice the cap hit that Fleischmann would leave behind and move forward with it.  Whether or not Souray would live up to that big cap hit depends a lot on his health, as he is a player on my injury-prone list.

The Oilers, on the other hand, would be very happy to be finally rid of the Souray distraction in their office and on their books, taking on another young scoring forward like Fleischmann.  Unfortunately for the Oilers, Fleischmann is another winger, not exactly what they are after, but he could provide some more help to the centres that are already on the team, possibly making them better.

I don't think that this deal as it stands is one that can happen, there will likely have to be some padding from one side or the other to try and even it up. I would think that the Oilers would have to send a prospect or a mid-round pick to the Capitals, just so they would take that cap hit off their hands, especially for a talent like Fleischmann. The essence of the deal would be Souray for Fleischmann, but at the end of the day, there would need to be a bit more to make it real.

For now, I could see this deal being done, because of the higher prices for top-to-mid level defensemen are quite high and I don't believe the Capitals have enough in their system today to make it as far as they would like in the Eastern Conference playoffs.