Hartnell Could Waive Goodbye

Reports are surfacing that Scott Hartnell was approached by the Columbus Blue Jackets back in February to provide a list of teams that he would approve to be traded to, waiving his no-movement clause to do so.  Obviously, a deal couldn't get done at the trade deadline for the scrappy forward, so he was left to finish the season with the Jackets and didn't exactly have the best of seasons, when it was all said and done.

Now, with the team looking forward, they could really use some more cap space and possibly find a player that is much better suited to the style of play that management and the coaching staff want for their club.  Heading into the Summer, you could look at their signed group of players and establish that they have about 19 players, including Hartnell, who would be in the lineup, when the puck drops in October, in theory.  This group is already coming in at $65.7 million, which wouldn't leave a lot of space for improvement through free agency, with fears that the cap ceiling isn't going to go up much, if at all.  The cap ceiling in the 2016 season was $71.4 million, just for measuring purposes.

Elliotte Friedman suggests in his 30 Thoughts from Saturday that teams are being considered are probably not keen on how much is left on Hartnell's deal, three more years at $4.75 million against the cap per year.  That's fair, especially since Hartnell hasn't exactly been a sure thing every year.  Between Nashville, Philadelphia and Columbus, already 15 seasons deep, how much does the 34-year old have left in the tank and what kind of consistency are you going to get from him?  Both are great questions, thus becoming a much bigger gamble.

Since he is already getting up there in age, you would have to believe that he is looking at teams that are trending upwards in their championship trajectory.  With those in mind, a lot of those teams are already facing cap issues, either already having players signed or they have building blocks that they want to take care of first.

Without any doubt, you can bet that Hartnell likely won't move until the salary cap numbers are announced and even more likely, when free agency opens up, teams start spending and then find out what they have left for Hartnell.

And then there is the return that the Blue Jackets want for Hartnell and Friedman reported that the deadline request for a return was quite high.  With the way the market is shaping up and likely how much the team wants to shed his salary, that the asking price will be somewhat lower than what it was at the deadline.  No team is going to take on this salary without sending some back in return and/or having the Jackets retain some of his money for the next three years.  The latter being less than ideal for the Jackets.

One team I could see making a move for Hartnell this Summer would be the New York Rangers, who have been cycling through the rumour mill, more so for their overhaul that could be coming this Summer, including a move to get Rick Nash off of their books.  I am not suggesting that Nash would go back to Columbus in a deal for Hartnell, that doesn't make any sense, rather, once the Rangers move Nash, if they do, they would have a lot more space to work with and they never seem to be afraid of sizable cap hits.

In a much less likely deal, the Buffalo Sabres could send troubled forward Matt Moulson and his $5 million cap hit for the next three seasons to Columbus for Hartnell and his three years remaining on his deal.  It's troubled player for troubled player, but this deal would not solve Columbus' salary cap crunch, rather it would make it less comfortable and that's not really what they want to accomplish here.  The Sabres could use Hartnell's leadership for the kids, while Moulson might be able to find some more scoring in the Jackets' system, which would make it a hockey trade, but still a head-scratcher.

The Anaheim Ducks also fall into the category of a perennial playoff team, which really showed some promise in the 2016 season and currently has some potential openings, where Hartnell's experience, grit and nose for the net could come into play.  They are a team that could absorb a good portion of Hartnell's contract, sending pieces in return and could be a pretty good fit.  The Ducks are closely looking at the numbers that the league comes up with, in terms of the cap ceiling, and they have decisions to make with restricted free agents, but it could be a good move on either side of the conference border here.

Redden to Start in the Minors?

Four years left, $6.5 million against the cap per year... this is what is staring the New York Rangers in the face going into the 2011 season. In theory, this doesn't look like a terrible deal for what was a pretty good defenseman in Ottawa, right?  Well, his 2010 numbers were horrible, 2 goals and 12 assists in 75 games is not going to cut it for a $6.5 million player. 

So, now there is rumblings that Redden and his massive cap hit may end up down in the minors to start the season, saving the Rangers from his cap hit, but not his actual salary.  Redden will be paid in full whatever part of his $6.5 million salary he earns in the AHL, but for salary cap purposes, the Rangers would save the math there, giving them a little more flexibility in the marketplace.

With Redden on the active roster, the Rangers currently have 12 players signed on for $43.4 million against the cap, with no buyouts or other penalties on the go at the moment.  That leaves $16 million for 11 players and we all know how much the Rangers like to spend, don't we?

At age 33, this will likely be a huge slap in the face to Redden, but he can't say he didn't have this coming to him.  His play has not been of the high calibre that the Rangers expected of him when he signed as a free agent in 2008.  In 156 games with the Rangers, he has 5 goals and 35 assists for 40 points and only a +3 plus/minus rating.  If Redden finds his way down to the minors, I would almost be amazed to see him back up with the club, unless there was some depth issues on the blueline, like injuries, because his cap hit would probably bump him down the depth chart little by little.

I'm going to keep a close eye on this, but for now, it's still labelled as a rumour, so I'll keep it on this blog for now.  Once he actually drops down, I'll post something on the hockey pool blog, reminding everyone to stay away from Redden in their hockey pool draft.  Actually, I will say it right now... until further notice, stay away from Redden in your hockey pool drafts.

Lecavalier to the Rangers?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To New York	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Vincent Lecavalier	Forward	29	48	12	46	11	$7.727 million
--------
To Tampa Bay	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Brandon Dubinsky	Forward	23	36	10	26	2	$1.85 million
Wade Redden	Defenseman	32	42	1	7	5	$6.5 million
Matt Gilroy	Defenseman	25	44	4	7	2	$1.75 million

I saw this rumour this morning on Puck Daddy and I thought I would draw it out, despite it being denied right off the hop and with much vigor as well. Frankly, this is just a discussion point to which there is little basis to this, it's just an interesting thought, don't you think?

From the Tampa Bay side, they have been in the middle of the Vincent Lecavalier rumour cloud for quite some time now and in some cases there might be some fire to all the smoke. It does seem awfully silly to be thinking about a move for Lecavalier, the face of the franchise, but the mistake of giving him a boat load on a very long-term deal does seem to be biting the team management in the ass a little bit. We all know that trying to move a cap hit over $7 million is one of the hardest things plaguing some NHL general managers these days.

The Rangers know all too well about trying to move a big cap hit and this proposed rumour has that individual case in this deal going back the other way. Wade Redden and his $6.5 million cap hit has been a plight upon Rangers management, especially with the lack of decent play from the blueliner. I can see what the writer of this proposed rumour was thinking... "let's swap the big contracts and then give the Lightning a little bit more, because they are taking on Redden." I can see it, it makes some sense, but for the Lightning its somewhat of a dumb move, especially since they wouldn't be getting anywhere near the offense from Brandon Dubinsky and their depth gets challenged a bit more.

On the face of it all, something is likely going to happen with Lecavalier, but this deal certainly isn't going to be it. I have a feeling that the Lightning now have some reason to be waiting to see what Ilya Kovalchuk garners in a trade from Atlanta. Sure, it isn't quite the same situation, but its two teams in the Southeast Division trying to figure out what their superstars are worth on the market. Both teams seem to be looking to rebuild a bit, so there could be a little bit of a market comparison in there somewhere.

I still don't know why the Lightning would trade Lecavalier away until Steven Stamkos is up for negotiations and the team feels they want him more than Lecavalier.

Plus, I truly believe that the Rangers are stuck with Redden for the duration of that deal.

Deal Brewin' Between Oilers & Rangers?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To Edmonton	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Brandon Dubinsky	Forward	23	18	3	10	2	$1.85 million
--------
To New York	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Andrew Cogliano	Forward	22	29	3	8	1	$1.13 million

Now, this is by no means a complete rumour, but there were names going both ways, so I thought I would toy with the names posted on Hockeybuzz this morning. Hell, I got to use a pretty cool picture of Andrew Cogliano while I'm at it, so that's okay.

So, in theory it looks like this isn't too terribly far off from being a straight swap. The Oilers would get what was thought to be the perfect centre for Marian Gaborik in Brandon Dubinsky and the Rangers would get a speedster that could actually keep up to Gaborik in Cogliano.

The Oilers need offensive depth and Dubinsky can be great behind or ahead of Shawn Horcoff in the depth chart at centre, which means he could be slotted in with either Ales Hemsky or Sam Gagner, depending on how the coach feels that day. That has to be rather exciting.

Cogliano, as explained to me earlier today on Twitter, hasn't been able to slow down and be in more control for the Oilers, so he's not really fitting in. Well, what city in North America loves the flash & dash? You're right, it's the Big Apple. As mentioned before, Cogliano could find himself playing with Gaborik, who is considered one of the fastest skaters in the league... so it's a perfect match. Now, if Gaborik's scoring rubs off a bit too, the Rangers are in business.

Now, I think we can all agree that Dubinsky will come with a higher market value than Cogliano, so that would indicate that the Oilers may have to throw in a little more to get this deal done. Would the Rangers be so bold as to get another defenseman to keep around? Probably not, their top six is so good that they don't even keep a seventh around. Maybe there is another prospect in there that the Oilers can pick up and then maybe throw a deep pick in going back with Dubinsky to call it square?

I think this has some merit to it... what do you think?

What Happens to Dubinsky?

Getting lost in all the Dany Heatley and Phil Kessel talk this summer is Brandon Dubinsky, who remains an unsigned RFA, still in the Rangers organization.

Dubinsky, 23, remains the only key free agent for the Rangers this summer, but with the salary cap concerns that the Rangers have already (17 players @ $50.5 million), Dubinsky is quickly finding himself to be the odd man out, since there are way too many spots to fill with so little space to do it in.

Last season, Dubinsky played in all 82 games, registering 41 points (13G, 28A) for an even scoring pace. There is also a lot of belief that he will be experiencing a breakout year, but that will be tough to sell for a larger price in any trade.

The top team on the block is the Maple Leafs, as they seem to have their fingers in a lot of pies, trying to figure out what the best one is to go forward with. There is an understanding that Dubinsky may be their second choice if the Bruins are not going let go of Kessel too easily.

I like Dubinsky and I think he'd be a great addition just about anywhere. As a restricted free agent, he could be signed to an offer sheet, but at what he'll cost, he'll still be rather costly when it comes to compensation for letting him go. The Rangers would be more likely to let him go for picks, as they are doing a good job filling up their youth rosters.

Much like Heatley and Kessel, I can see Dubinsky moving, as a victim of the salary cap era. Any team with space should be looking to pick him up for some depth scoring.

Drury for Heatley?

An interesting rumour posted last night sees Chris Drury in a package from the Rangers heading to the Senators for Dany Heatley. This trade rumour might have a little bit of meat to it, as the Rangers are a team that likes to take on big salary players and they also have some assets that may be underperforming on their team that could use a change of scenary. On the outside, this idea looks like a pretty good fit.

			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To New York	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Dany Heatley	F	28	82	72	5 years/$7.5 million
------------------------------------------------------------------
			2008-2009 Statistics		2010
To Ottawa	Pos	Age	GP/MIN	Points	Cap Hit
Chris Drury	F	32	81	56	3 years/$7.05 million

When you look at the table above for the straight-across swap, it does lean in favour of the Rangers, despite the extra half million in salary going the other way. The Senators will also likely be looking for some more help in this deal, especially since they are trading away a ton of goals and getting half in return in Drury. The Senators would be wise to try and sneak a defenseman out of the Big Apple in this deal, maybe a Dan Girardi, if the Sens were to throw in a pick of reasonable value. There are a number of combinations that could be done here, but from where we stand here, it has some legs.

If Drury was to arrive in Ottawa, he would do well to take some pressure off the other three centres (Jason Spezza, Mike Fisher & Chris Kelly), but there isn't an increase in scoring that Heatley leaves behind. The Sens would have to be looking to swing another deal to try and snag a scoring winger, either in a trade or via free agency this summer to fill that void.

For the Rangers, they hardly have anyone signed, so they can definitely build around this move. You would have to imagine that Scott Gomez would likely get first crack at playing with Heatley, which potentially makes for a good top line, no matter who the third player is.