Where Does Stamkos Land?

As we draw closer and closer to the NHL silly season, one of the big questions leading up to it is, "where does Steven Stamkos sign?"

First and foremost, the leading factor for this decision is how Stamkos' relationship with the team, general manager Steve Yzerman and head coach Jon Cooper is going forward and even before the blood clot issue, which cost him the back half of the season and most of the playoffs, we were under the impression that things were not very rosy.

Speculation sucks.  Basing a lot of what these rumours are on is a bit rough around the edges and we will never know the full story, until someone writes a book and even then, we should take some of those reports with a grain of salt as well.

Nevertheless, out of boredom, we trudge along and have a little bit of fun, at the expense of looming questions about a superstar player.  Let's all try and offer a guess, as to what goes on, in an attempt to kill some time, yeah?

Does Stamkos re-sign in Tampa Bay?  I don't see why Stamkos wouldn't want to try and field some offers from other clubs, since the Lightning have seemingly moved on, in a sense, feeling very comfortable making it to the Eastern Conference Finals without him in their lineup and not really finding a boost when he returned to the lineup for that final game.  There were reports that the coaching staff wanted to shift his position, there is a sense that he is now a second line player for this team and he isn't being leaned on as a superstar anymore for this club.  That's the impression I'm getting.

Yzerman has publicly said that he would like to re-sign Stamkos, but I do get the feeling that it is a bit more posturing for the off-season, more than a genuine statement, but that's just my opinion.  I truly believe that Yzerman needs to keep up appearances, making sure that if he moves the negotiating rights for Stamkos, he gets a decent return for them.

Will teams want a guy like Stamkos?  Well, of course they would, dummy.  His expiring cap hit in the 2016 season was $7.5 million, which isn't a small chunk of change, but for a potential 50-goal scorer, that's not an unreasonable number.  It also begs the question about his negotiating rights and how much they are worth, if a team is going to end up with such a quality player.  A 2nd round pick?  A package of picks?  There is certainly no guarantee that he will even sign with the team that acquires his rights.

Two teams that have popped up the most in the  Stamkos discussions have been the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings, but it would be silly to think that there isn't more teams in the weeds, waiting to offer up a tasty package to attract the rights of Stamkos or in a much better scenario, hope that the 26-year old makes it to unrestricted free agency and the open market.

The Maple Leafs have to be the favourite destination for those trying to predict the future. Their rebuild allows them some cap freedom, it gives Stamkos the opportunity to get back to some big minutes on the ice and it is close to home as well.  The downside to signing in Toronto is that they are still a little ways from being a great playoff threat, which is the ultimate goal for any player, especially the superstars.  If Toronto could land a marquee player like Stamkos, add Auston Matthews to the mix at the draft, they will expedite the process, without any doubt.

The Red Wings are a different kettle of fish altogether and their involvement in the Stamkos scenario hinges on the future of Pavel Datsyuk and rightly so.  If Datsyuk comes to the final conclusion that he will sign his retirement papers in the NHL, giving him the free and clear to sign with a KHL team of his choosing, the Red Wings will still be on the hook for his salary cap hit, which is still very significant ($7.5 million).

Datsyuk's 35+ contract will count against the cap, if he chooses to retire, so the only way that the Red Wings could possibly afford Stamkos, would be to move that cap hit to a team that could absorb that hit and offer up an asset for their troubles.  Those teams are becoming few and far between and the asking price to eat up that much cap room would likely be high.  Most teams won't likely know if they're in or out on this situation until after the 2017 season cap numbers are announced, which should be soon.

There are more ifs than answers in this scenario, but the Red Wings would certainly benefit by having a talent like Stamkos join their ranks, as the old guard of Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg age themselves out.  The move would also keep the Red Wings in the playoff relevant conversation and give them a building block to work around.  Stamkos isn't the end-all solution for the Red Wings though, as their depth in other spots is questionable, but at least they would have an attractive piece to sway other free agents their way.

Instead of being a team that would want to take on the cap hit to allow the Red Wings to sign Stamkos, why couldn't the Arizona Coyotes throw their hat into the ring and possibly offer him a key spot in their future?

Much like the Maple Leafs, the Coyotes are not short on cap space and flexibility for a top end player like Stamkos.  The Coyotes are rich in draft picks this year, able to shift something to sway the negotiating rights over.  They would get an established superstar into their market, after missing out on the draft lottery for one of the top end draft picks and let's not forget, they have lots of top end talent to play with Stamkos, making it into a remarkably great fit in the end.

It would be a daunting task to help this Coyotes team succeed in the desert, which would be a possible downside to moving out to Arizona, but if there is one guy that could give it a solid swing, it would be Stamkos.

I honestly can't see Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay, when there is opportunity for more hockey and more responsibility elsewhere.  There are going to be established teams that wish that they could afford to talk to such a great player, but they would have to give up on someone, in order to make that deal go, which is too big of a gamble for those teams.  I like the rebuilding and retooling teams to come around with reasonable offers to pry the negotiating rights away and you will know when Tampa Bay has realized that they have nothing left to offer, because they will likely move his rights for a bit less than what they valued him at.

It's anyone's guess around here... but it's sure going to make for good hockey news when it all goes down.

Tampa In On Kaberle?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Toronto	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Ryan Malone	Forward	30	69	21	26	47	5	$4.5 million
--------------
To Tampa Bay	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Tomas Kaberle	Defense	32	82	7	42	49	1	$4.25 million

The late name being thrown around the rumour mill on Sunday night has been Ryan Malone coming out of Tampa Bay for Tomas Kaberle and I wanted to have a look at what the numbers may pan out here for.

Of course, this wouldn't be the complete deal, I would have to think that giving up Malone would mean that the draft pick that should be involved would be low, unless the Leafs have another ace up their sleeve to upgrade the pick.

Interesting point to note, Malone's long-term deal does have a no-movement clause, which could be tough to move and why would Malone want to move away from playing on the top line with Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis?

The Lightning have done well in this off-season adding Simon Gagne and Domenic Moore, but trading away Malone does make me a little weary of where the forward corps are going in Tampa Bay.  I'm not sold on this idea as a way to help win games, especially with some good minute-eaters on the blueline, where does everyone fit and how do they mesh? 

Even if the Maple Leafs were able to turn this deal, who is going to service all of these gritty scorers?  Is there going to be a centre or two in the Leafs future?

Looking at the Goaltending Holes in the NHL

I thought I would climb through the roster tables that I've put together for my Pool Outlook pages on my Hockey Pool Blog and I thought I would look at the goaltending holes I could find, especially when it comes to starting goalies. There are a few goalies on the market that will make the offseason awfully interesting. All of these holes will need to be filled or some positions could also be upgraded. Here's where I think those positions are and possibly how they might look to fill them.

The Thrashers don't have a goalie with many minutes signed on to their roster this Summer as of yet and they will be in the market for a goalie this year. Ondrej Pavelec is a restricted free agent and he'll be looking for a starting job, but it's unclear how much ice-time the team wants to give him at this point. The Thrashers have the ability to be in on an unrestricted free agent goalie, so that will likely determine a lot about Pavelec's role come October.

I wouldn't say that the Blackhawks have many holes to fill, as they could keep Cristobel Huet, who is signed on for a couple seasons more, while Antti Niemi could find himself out of the picture, but after winning the Cup, that does seem unlikely.  It isn't a good bet that the Blackhawks will be testing the unrestricted free agent market, but their crease is right in the middle of the rumour mill gears.  There's plenty of speculation and it's only a matter of time before we see some movement.

It does sound like that the Oilers are comfortable giving Nikolai Khabibulin a second chance with the team, after an injury-plagued year and some legal troubles away from the rink, so the number one spot is his to lose (for a while). The Oilers have a couple of restricted free agent goalies that saw plenty of time in 2010 in Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk, who might be able to fetch a decent enough return via trade. Khabibulin still has a few years left on his current deal with the Oilers and if he stays healthy, one of those two young goalies will get some itchy feet to move on.

Who is it going to be? Is it Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price as the number one guy for the Canadiens? Maybe the question should be, do they only keep one or do they keep both, as they are both restricted free agents, both hungry for number one minutes. If they only decide to keep one, the Canadiens will likely deal the other away, flooding the goalie market a little bit more and possibly bringing in a talented veteran to help the chosen one through the 2011 season.

How comfortable are the Flyers going forward with Brian Boucher and Johan Backlund going forward? If I had to guess, it would be... not very. Boucher was a solid replacement for some much needed minutes, when there was no one else. Backlund shouldn't be immature at age 28 (29 in July), but reliability at the NHL level does pop up as a reasonable question. I would imagine that the Flyers are going to be players in the startin goalie marketplace, but what can they afford or what are they willing to spend?

With some interesting talent potentially available on the open market, can the Sharks gamble their future on what they can afford on the open market or do they use the last couple weeks of June to try and give a new deal to Evgeni Nabokov, while they still have his exclusive rights? Personally, as of June 15th, I would have thought that if they wanted to keep with Nabokov, they'd have signed him already, but that's just me. They have some negotiating power with a good offense in front of whoever takes the crease, so maybe they'll be looking to try a fresh face in the crease in 2011.

I have seen word on Twitter from some of the Blues sources that talks are open between themselves and potential UFA Chris Mason, which would solve their goaltending issue, in terms of their number one guy. If I remember correctly, they have been going for over a week or so, which suggests that this is not a slam dunk. The Blues are a team that has plenty of flexibility around the cap and probably doesn't want to pay too much for Mason, but may open the purse strings for a big UFA goalie that has a better reputation in the league as a winner. I'm expecting the Blues to drive prices up on UFA goalies.

If you ask me, I think the Lightning are in a solid position to upgrade their goaltending, after giving a solid shot to Mike Smith to be their number one, but he might just fit better as the back-up there in Tampa Bay.  That isn't to say that Smith won't be the number one guy on opening night, but with a new General Manager in town, he might have some good ideas on how to help brace the crease for plenty of shots against in the 2011 season.  The Lightning are another team with cap room, so I expect them to be in the market to spend some money in the crease.

The Capitals have a situation not unlike the Montreal Canadiens, but with the likely departure of Jose Theodore to unrestricted free agency, the Capitals do have a couple of restricted free agents in Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, who may be good enough to platoon the number one job, but with the Summer quickly approaching, they might weigh their options, flash some superstars in the direction of a highly rated unrestricted free agent and then go from there.

Thinking Out Loud: Theodore

I can't say that I'm terribly surprised that Jose Theodore hasn't had any discussions with the Washington Capitals (as read here this morning), but I am exceptionally curious to know what kind of leverage he might have when negotiating a new deal away from the US capital. 

First of all, Theodore is coming off of a 2-year deal that had an annual cap hit of $4.5 million, which is a fair chunk of change for a number one goalie.  I don't think it was unfair to pay Theodore as a number one goalie, as he was brought in to fill that role in 2008 and he has done the job admirably, when called upon.  Unfortunately for Theodore, the Capitals have some wealth in goaltending prospects, including Semyon Varlamov, who took back the starting role before the playoffs this year and Michal Neuvirth, who is currently leading the Hershey Bears in the AHL Calder Cup Finals at the moment.  With two young goalies like that, the big contract of Theodore has become expendible.

As for his numbers, Theodore has managed to win at least 30 games in his two seasons with the Capitals, but arguably, with that much firepower up front, 30 wins should be expected of any goalie that can figure into 45+ games a year.  It's definitely a credit to his play that he didn't stink it up behind Alex Ovechkin and company and won a lot of games, but how much credit is it actually worth?  I would imagine in some negotiations, you might have teams try and discount his value because of the team in front of him.

What is going to be the role that Theodore has when he signs with a new team?  I would have to think that he'll be holding out for a starting job, so the longer he stays on the market, would suggest the likelihood that he'll have to take a back-up role, which will greatly affect his pay scale, but looking at the teams that will (or may) be shopping for a starter (Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Jose or Tampa Bay) he might get snapped up in a hurry. 

At age 33, there should be no consideration that Theodore is over-the-hill at all, especially since he put up some tremendous numbers in the regular season for a contending team.  The length of deal he will likely attract couldn't be all that big, likely again in the 2-year range, especially with the amount of young talent most teams have coming up through their system.  Most teams would be looking at Theodore as a short-term solution or use him in more of a mentoring role.

All of that being said, I am expecting to see an annual cap hit of about $3 million, maybe $3.5 million, for Theodore for the 2011 season, which is quite reasonable for his experience and the new team that he joins will probably be in need of a number one guy, so there will be a marketable price given.

Right now, I think his best fit would probably be in Tampa Bay, as they have some good young keepers coming through their system and Theodore could platoon the role with Mike Smith.  Theodore would be a fresh face in a rebuilding city like Tampa and they could be a pretty good team in a couple of seasons, likely to help fuel better contract negotiations for another deal down the line.

That was just me thinking out loud again...

Lecavalier to the Rangers?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics			2010 Cap Hit
To New York	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Vincent Lecavalier	Forward	29	48	12	46	11	$7.727 million
--------
To Tampa Bay	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	Years	Per Year
Brandon Dubinsky	Forward	23	36	10	26	2	$1.85 million
Wade Redden	Defenseman	32	42	1	7	5	$6.5 million
Matt Gilroy	Defenseman	25	44	4	7	2	$1.75 million

I saw this rumour this morning on Puck Daddy and I thought I would draw it out, despite it being denied right off the hop and with much vigor as well. Frankly, this is just a discussion point to which there is little basis to this, it's just an interesting thought, don't you think?

From the Tampa Bay side, they have been in the middle of the Vincent Lecavalier rumour cloud for quite some time now and in some cases there might be some fire to all the smoke. It does seem awfully silly to be thinking about a move for Lecavalier, the face of the franchise, but the mistake of giving him a boat load on a very long-term deal does seem to be biting the team management in the ass a little bit. We all know that trying to move a cap hit over $7 million is one of the hardest things plaguing some NHL general managers these days.

The Rangers know all too well about trying to move a big cap hit and this proposed rumour has that individual case in this deal going back the other way. Wade Redden and his $6.5 million cap hit has been a plight upon Rangers management, especially with the lack of decent play from the blueliner. I can see what the writer of this proposed rumour was thinking... "let's swap the big contracts and then give the Lightning a little bit more, because they are taking on Redden." I can see it, it makes some sense, but for the Lightning its somewhat of a dumb move, especially since they wouldn't be getting anywhere near the offense from Brandon Dubinsky and their depth gets challenged a bit more.

On the face of it all, something is likely going to happen with Lecavalier, but this deal certainly isn't going to be it. I have a feeling that the Lightning now have some reason to be waiting to see what Ilya Kovalchuk garners in a trade from Atlanta. Sure, it isn't quite the same situation, but its two teams in the Southeast Division trying to figure out what their superstars are worth on the market. Both teams seem to be looking to rebuild a bit, so there could be a little bit of a market comparison in there somewhere.

I still don't know why the Lightning would trade Lecavalier away until Steven Stamkos is up for negotiations and the team feels they want him more than Lecavalier.

Plus, I truly believe that the Rangers are stuck with Redden for the duration of that deal.

Tanguay Still On The Market

The enigma that is Alex Tanguay has still not found a place to play this summer, remaining an unrestricted free agent for the time being.

Tanguay has been a sketchy player since leaving Colorado for Calgary in 2006. It was really hard to guess what the problem was in Calgary, but a lot of fingers pointed at the defensive system that was employed in the Sutter years. His move to Montreal last summer was met with some cautious optimism, but an injury-plagued year really seems to have put a damper on his reputation this summer.

Tanguay finished the 2009 regular season playing only 50 games, scoring 16 goals and 25 assists. He missed 28 games due to a separated shoulder, which also seemed to bother him in the playoffs, missing two games in the Spring.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that he is being courted to some degree by teams, but you can understand why some teams are hesitant to show him the big dollars he once commanded. A 58-point season followed by a 41-point season is hardly worth the big dollars he was making in his high-scoring days.

The Minnesota Wild have been one of those teams linked with Tanguay over the past couple weeks, which would make for an interesting combination possibility with Martin Havlat and/or Mikko Koivu, who are both somewhat known to be injury-fodder as well. If they were all to be healthy, they would make up a slick offensive line, which would be hard to gauge at the beginning of the season.

The Wild have some cap space left, but I'm sure that they don't want to burn it all on one player before camp. They are currently sitting with a projected line-up of 21 players at $52.2 million. I estimated Tanguay's cap value at $4.5 million in July, but now that we're at the end of August, there could be a time discount, as he hasn't picked up any big bites at that price. Now, I would expect him to sign for around $3.5 million.

The Lightning have also been named in the Tanguay sweeps (of sorts), but they had quieted down as the Wild came up through the weeds. The Lightning have plenty of room for Tanguay, if they wanted to pick him up, but the organization likely can't agree on whether or not to actually sign him. I would have to think that Tanguay would be a good compliment to players like Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis or even Steven Stamkos. A smooth skater and playmaker, like Tanguay, would have three capable goal scorers to possibly play with.

As of right now, the Lightning only have 18 players projected to be in their line-up at a cap hit of $41.8 million.

Will Lecavalier Get Dealt?

There are stories circulating around the league that there is a philosophy struggle in Tampa Bay, in regards to their maverick ownership. Click here, here & here for stories. This is proving to be rather interesting, because it really does revolve around the future of Vincent Lecavalier and his marketability going forward. The struggle also seems to have a lot to do with the team's budget and how much the owners would like to spend in these tough economic times.

Lecavalier has a NTC (no-trade clause) that comes into effect on July 1st, where he'll have his own say in the matter when it comes to any dealings, so the Lightning ownership will have to resolve their problems before then to know how they can approach free agency.

If Lecavalier gets moved, there is an understanding that they have pared down their budget and will likely lay low for another season, before making a huge move. If Lecavalier stays, it gives the idea that they will be in it to win it this year and they will likely try and spend close to the ceiling to do so. It's a very interesting situation there in Tampa Bay. Both sides of the table have some merit, but really, in the end it's still pro sports, where you want to win every year. I would find it hard to believe that it isn't the case that way.