Upgrade Depth, A Stepping Stone to Fixing the OIlers

The Edmonton Oilers have been the butt of many of my own jokes, yet there really has been no movement from the ownership or significant rumours around players that management could move of late, but that won't stop me from putting up my first post on this blog site in years.

Over the last five year or so, I thought one of the best ideas among teams in their rebuild process belonged to the Florida Panthers, as they poached a whole bunch of Chicago Blackhawks players, as they sold off assets to clear cap space.  To me, this should be something that the Oilers should be looking into, especially with a number of teams on the verge of fire sales, thanks to some shaky salary cap numbers and the dropping Canadian Dollar.

With Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg, Torey Krug and Dougie Hamilton all up for new contracts through restricted free agency, the Boston Bruins bundle of cap space will be eaten up in a big hurry over the Summer.  Smith and Krug both took short-term deals to get to next Summer, where they should be handsomely rewarded.  Between the four of them, they could fetch North of $16 million for the lot, where they only have about $21 million to spend on 11 players, if the $73 million cap estimates from the Winter GM meetings is the ballpark number we're playing with.

The Bruins likely won't want to deal any of those four, as they likely see them as cornerstone pieces to this franchise going forward, which could mean that some depth may be up for grabs and frankly, that's what I think the Oilers need the most.  Not scoring, not goaltending, but quality depth.

The Oilers need some minutes eaten up, taking the pressure off the kids to do just about everything this franchise needs to win, things that they aren't exactly prepared to do or shouldn't have been asked to do, so early in their careers.

Let's not kid ourselves in Edmonton either... they are not exactly in salary cap heaven either.  By my count, thanks to good ol' CapGeek, they will have some decisions to make with some of their RFA's as well.  Nail Yakupov, Marc Arcobello, Justin Schultz, Martin Marincin and Brad Hunt all come to mind.  The Oilers have about $19.2 million to spend on eight roster spots, which isn't big money.  Thankfully, what they should be after is quality depth... it may not come cheap, but they shouldn't be shopping for top six players.

RUMOUR		2015 Season				Cap Hit
To Edmonton	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Chris Kelly	F	34	3	11	14	$3 million	$3 million
David Warsofsky	D	4	0	1	1	$600,000	RFA
---
To Boston	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Nail Yakupov	F	36	4	4	8	$925,000	RFA
2015 mid-round draft pick

To me, this is the kind of deal the Oilers can make with the Bruins and the Bruins can get something of what they wanted to help get their 2015 season back on track.

For the Oilers, they would get a quality 3rd liner with great PK experience and a defenseman that has his name thrown around as a pretty good up-and-coming blueliner, who can't seem to crack the depth chart.  Kelly is stable and fits within the budget going forward, while Warsofsky could likely sign for something short-term and cheap, giving the team the opportunity to take that horse for a run in 2016.

The Bruins, on the other hand, would get a scoring forward, who has a bit of a physical edge, something that Boston uses on a regular basis anyways.  The immediate cap savings would help the team at the deadline, help the team in July and speaking of July, Yakupov hasn't done much in his career to be worthy of a big raise, so he shouldn't cost nearly as much as Kelly would next season (in theory).

The next team I would try to hit up, from an Oilers perspective, would be the Philadelphia Flyers, who might not be in the worst shape, if the cap was $73 million, but if projections dip any lower, then they would have some interesting decisions to make.

Nevertheless, the Flyers could be in a spot where they could do with getting rid of some salary cap space, just to be a bit more flexible on the market next Summer.  At $73 million and Chris Pronger staying on the Long-Term Injured Reserve, I have the Flyers in with $10.8 million in cap space for six open roster spots, including a goalie.  The Flyers are fading in the East, despite huge numbers from both Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux, so selling pieces may be the way to go to help their cause in the long run.

In return, I could see the Flyers looking to get a bit younger, trying to find players that can possibly crack the roster next season and give the team a little bit more youthful exuberance.

RUMOUR		2015 Season				Cap Hit
To Edmonton	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
Braydon Coburn	D	23	1	3	4	$4.5 million	$4.5 million
---
To Philadelphia	POS	GP	G	A	P	2015	2016
David Musil	D	0	0	0	0	$894,000	$894,000
Greg Chase	F	0	0	0	0	$746,000	$746,000
2015 mid-round draft pick

The Flyers will be looking for prospects and picks, if they decide that selling off assets is the way to go.  Dropping Braydon Coburn, who has been on the rumour radar for sometime now, would give them much more flexibility in the Summer and picking up a couple of well-sized prospects and a draft pick would likely go a long way to getting the job done.

Coburn would be the kind of player that would be looked upon to be a second pairing defenseman, mostly in the shutdown role, but with time and an extra look or two, he could just as easily feature as well as Johnny Boychuk, when he moved from Boston to Long Island before this season started.  Coburn has always seemed to play a lesser fiddle to other Flyers defensemen and a move to Edmonton would easily give him the chance to play real minutes in the top two pairings.

Sure, Coburn would come in just above the budget number, but it would definitely give the team more of what they need... sandpaper in that rough & tumble Pacific Division.

I don't think any of these ideas are generally outlandish and both would at least give the Oilers more depth where they need it the most and these guys could go out and protect the goaltending, which could always use a little bit more help and even provide some physicality, something most of the young stars on the team lack as a whole.

Personally, I would be hard pressed to move a kid like Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle right now, even though they really have nothing to show for their time with the team.  Hall has posted some good numbers, but hasn't won, where Eberle hasn't posted numbers, but that doesn't mean they are not right for the job.  The Oilers haven't given their stars an opportunity to shine, just more reasons to fail.

If the Oilers start using their young pieces in deals to upgrade their depth, especially doing deals with Eastern Conference teams, everyone can start moving in the right direction together.

Blue Jackets in on Jeff Carter?

RUMOUR			2010-2011 NHL Statistics				July 1st Status
To Columbus	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jeff Carter	F	26	80	36	30	66	11	$5.3 million
--------------------------
To Philadelphia	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jakub Voracek	F	21	8	14	32	46	0	RFA
2012 1st Round Draft Pick

Now, this is what I call an excellent trade rumour!

Not long after the Philadelphia Flyers acquired Ilya Bryzgalov from the Phoenix Coyotes, the flags started going up, asking the question, how the hell are the Flyers going to sign a goalie that wants top dollar for the long-term to a deal with so much cap trouble as it is?  The easiest and most likely answer is that a player of significant value, possibly two players that add up to significant value, would have to depart in order to get this to go.  Hence this rumour.

As you can see in the trade table above, the Blue Jackets will help the Flyers out by moving some serious assets to Philadelphia to acquire Jeff Carter, a player of reasonable magnitude and good offensive skill.  The Jackets would send Jakub Voracek, an under-whelming prospect with Columbus, who becomes a restricted free agent in July, and the team's 1st round pick at the draft in a couple of weeks.

Let's quickly look at the Flyers, who not only clear some space for the signing of Bryzgalov, they get to name their price with a talented centre in Voracek, who could very well be signed for the short-term for some testing out money, and a decent 1st round pick (8th overall) to help build their youthful depth.

For the Jackets, they have the cap space to take on a top end centre like Carter, who should give some immediate help to a winger like Rick Nash, likely increasing their fantasy value for the 2012 season, which is one thing that the Jackets are desperately seeking.  In order to win now, the Jackets would almost be silly not to make this deal, granted they are probably the team pushing this one in the end.

I like this rumour a lot, I think both teams could certainly benefit from this one in a lot of ways.  Granted, this is a deal that is almost too good to be true, so it will be interesting to see whether or not this one goes down before or at the draft.  The only thing I could see slowing this deal down is that the Flyers would not really want to part with Carter, but their depth down the middle is very impressive and Carter has fallen down the depth charts behind Claude Giroux and Mike Richards.

Nabokov Heading to Philly?

One of the bigger stories of the second day of the Entry Draft was that of the alleged verbal deal that sees the Philadelphia Flyers get the negotiating rights to potential unrestricted free agent goaltender, Evgeni Nabokov.

Clearly, Nabokov should be considered one of the top unrestricted free agents this Summer, even if he is only known as a good regular season goalie and a sub-par playoff goalie in his career playing for the Sharks. Regular season success is worth a lot of money to teams, since it lasts the longest part of the hockey year and Nabokov is a guy who can put in 70 appearances a year.

In his time with San Jose, Nabokov has been a guy that has needed to pull some games out of the fire and steal from time to time, but of course, that really only applies to the regular season. Nevertheless, if the Flyers can get themselves a goalie that can steal some more games in the regular season, they might be on the right track with their thinking, applying a good goalie behind a big defense and a more-than-capable offense.

What is Nabokov going to be worth to the open market?  In some designs, Nabokov should have the ability to write his own number down and be able to stick to it.  That's something that the Flyers would hope to slip away from in some early negotiations, but being surrounded by Martin Brodeur ($5.2 million), Ilya Bryzgalov ($4.25 million), Ryan Miller ($6.25 million) and Roberto Luongo ($5.3 million), you would have to think that Nabokov has dollar signs in his eyes, when determining his cap hit.  Even if Nabokov agreed to the average cap hit of those four goalies (and their current cap hits), he would be looking at $5.25 million against the cap and it's hard to say that he isn't worth it... in the regular season.

As the Flyers know, all they need is to get to the playoffs and they can let the team do the rest, in front of any goalie that is ready to go.  What the may want is a guy that can get the team to the Stanley Cup Playoffs and hopefully impose some dominance over their Eastern Conference rivals, but they will need to pay for it.

As of Saturday night, the Flyers have 10 forwards, 3 defense and Brian Boucher signed on for the 2011 season for an approximate cap hit of $47.2 million.  With the salary cap number rising to $59.4 million, that leaves the Flyers with $12.2 million.  Let's say Nabokov can sign for $5.2 million (for a nice round number and easier to work the math out with), that would leave $7 million to sign the remaining eight players for the 23-man roster.  We can take into account that they don't need all 23 players all season long, but it's just good to keep in mind when doing the math.

I don't think this signing is out of the question, by any means, but I think the Flyers would have to get awfully creative with their youth, their AHL team and possibly some more transactions after the fact to make everything work.  Boy, it's a good thing they didn't sign Dan Hamhuis, eh?

Looking at the Goaltending Holes in the NHL

I thought I would climb through the roster tables that I've put together for my Pool Outlook pages on my Hockey Pool Blog and I thought I would look at the goaltending holes I could find, especially when it comes to starting goalies. There are a few goalies on the market that will make the offseason awfully interesting. All of these holes will need to be filled or some positions could also be upgraded. Here's where I think those positions are and possibly how they might look to fill them.

The Thrashers don't have a goalie with many minutes signed on to their roster this Summer as of yet and they will be in the market for a goalie this year. Ondrej Pavelec is a restricted free agent and he'll be looking for a starting job, but it's unclear how much ice-time the team wants to give him at this point. The Thrashers have the ability to be in on an unrestricted free agent goalie, so that will likely determine a lot about Pavelec's role come October.

I wouldn't say that the Blackhawks have many holes to fill, as they could keep Cristobel Huet, who is signed on for a couple seasons more, while Antti Niemi could find himself out of the picture, but after winning the Cup, that does seem unlikely.  It isn't a good bet that the Blackhawks will be testing the unrestricted free agent market, but their crease is right in the middle of the rumour mill gears.  There's plenty of speculation and it's only a matter of time before we see some movement.

It does sound like that the Oilers are comfortable giving Nikolai Khabibulin a second chance with the team, after an injury-plagued year and some legal troubles away from the rink, so the number one spot is his to lose (for a while). The Oilers have a couple of restricted free agent goalies that saw plenty of time in 2010 in Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk, who might be able to fetch a decent enough return via trade. Khabibulin still has a few years left on his current deal with the Oilers and if he stays healthy, one of those two young goalies will get some itchy feet to move on.

Who is it going to be? Is it Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price as the number one guy for the Canadiens? Maybe the question should be, do they only keep one or do they keep both, as they are both restricted free agents, both hungry for number one minutes. If they only decide to keep one, the Canadiens will likely deal the other away, flooding the goalie market a little bit more and possibly bringing in a talented veteran to help the chosen one through the 2011 season.

How comfortable are the Flyers going forward with Brian Boucher and Johan Backlund going forward? If I had to guess, it would be... not very. Boucher was a solid replacement for some much needed minutes, when there was no one else. Backlund shouldn't be immature at age 28 (29 in July), but reliability at the NHL level does pop up as a reasonable question. I would imagine that the Flyers are going to be players in the startin goalie marketplace, but what can they afford or what are they willing to spend?

With some interesting talent potentially available on the open market, can the Sharks gamble their future on what they can afford on the open market or do they use the last couple weeks of June to try and give a new deal to Evgeni Nabokov, while they still have his exclusive rights? Personally, as of June 15th, I would have thought that if they wanted to keep with Nabokov, they'd have signed him already, but that's just me. They have some negotiating power with a good offense in front of whoever takes the crease, so maybe they'll be looking to try a fresh face in the crease in 2011.

I have seen word on Twitter from some of the Blues sources that talks are open between themselves and potential UFA Chris Mason, which would solve their goaltending issue, in terms of their number one guy. If I remember correctly, they have been going for over a week or so, which suggests that this is not a slam dunk. The Blues are a team that has plenty of flexibility around the cap and probably doesn't want to pay too much for Mason, but may open the purse strings for a big UFA goalie that has a better reputation in the league as a winner. I'm expecting the Blues to drive prices up on UFA goalies.

If you ask me, I think the Lightning are in a solid position to upgrade their goaltending, after giving a solid shot to Mike Smith to be their number one, but he might just fit better as the back-up there in Tampa Bay.  That isn't to say that Smith won't be the number one guy on opening night, but with a new General Manager in town, he might have some good ideas on how to help brace the crease for plenty of shots against in the 2011 season.  The Lightning are another team with cap room, so I expect them to be in the market to spend some money in the crease.

The Capitals have a situation not unlike the Montreal Canadiens, but with the likely departure of Jose Theodore to unrestricted free agency, the Capitals do have a couple of restricted free agents in Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, who may be good enough to platoon the number one job, but with the Summer quickly approaching, they might weigh their options, flash some superstars in the direction of a highly rated unrestricted free agent and then go from there.

The Asking Price for Hamhuis?

RUMOUR			2009/2010 NHL Statistics
To Philadelphia	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Dan Hamhuis	Defenseman	27	57	4	16	$2 million	UFA
----------
To Nashville	Position	Age	GP	Goals	Points	2010 Cap Hit	2011 Cap Hit
Braydon Coburn	Defenseman	25	59	5	17	$1.3 million	RFA
Ryan Parent	Defenseman	23	28	0	2	$855,000	RFA

I'm not going to go into a lot of detail, but I wanted to piece together what a rumoured asking price is for Dan Hamhuis, arguably one of the hottest commodities on the trade wire this week. The Predators look to be looking for a roster player and a top end prospect for Hamhuis, which is pretty expensive, but that's the cost of winning in the end. The Predators are stacked in defensemen as it is, but it really is turning into the Defenseman Market Place at this deadline, much like it was last season as well. This cost might be a little too high for a team like the Flyers, as Parent has a lot of upside, but just lacks in the ability department right now to crack the roster. The numbers here are interesting, I would be keen to hear what other offers are on the table, if any.

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