Thinking Out Loud: Horton

We're now a week until the Entry Draft and the Florida Panthers keep coming up as the team with the most to move and a laundry list of trades to make.  The name really making headlines again is Nathan Horton, who I had singled out because of some rumours last September, including one interesting rumour that would have seen him move to Vancouver.  Not surprisingly, that didn't work out and he played the entire season with the Panthers and had a decent season, despite missing 17 games to a fractured leg.

So, now the Panthers have some new management in Dale Tallon and he has the ability to shape the team the way he wants and he has a track record of great success and great patience, just look at the Chicago Blackhawks and all the good work he did there.

Reading the rumours this morning, Horton has links to Boston, but Boston has links to just about everywhere for all sorts of re-tooling.  It's almost like the Bruins are in panic mode after giving up the 3-0 series lead to the Flyers in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  I've seen some thoughts about Horton moving West again, with a possibility of Calgary making a pitch for him, sorry I don't have any links to it here right away.

Horton has been a curious case to say the least though.  As the 3rd overall pick in 2003, he hasn't quite lived up to the billing of being such a high draft pick, but there are plenty of valid arguments that the Panthers have not been able to give him the right talent or help around him to get him to flourish.  Horton has topped out at only 62 points (twice) and in 2010 would have likely beaten that at his scoring pace, if it wasn't for his injury, so there is still some potential left in him to be a top end player.  With a salary cap hit of $4 million over each of the next three seasons, if he does start to score at a reasonable pace, he could end up being a bargain.

Remarkably, according to my spreadsheet, which is somewhat incomplete, but should be good enough for this statement, there are 13 players in Horton's draft year (2003) that have earned bigger contracts than him, including the two that were taken above him.  11 players drafted after Horton, have earned bigger deals, including Thomas Vanek, Dion Phaneuf, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Jeff Carter, Ryan Kesler, Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber, Milan Michalek and Loui Eriksson.  I think in this case, Horton might be considered a bit of a bust.

Don't get me wrong though, the Florida Panthers talent argument should be in play to a certain degree, since a number of those player have had some help in their career to achieve some pretty good goals, so if Horton was to move to an NHL city with some more scoring punch, I think we could measure him a little more soundly.  For now though, his price tag is kind of low and I would wager that there are a number of teams that wouldn't mind a 2nd-line centre like Horton, take the pressure off and possibly turn him into a real scoring threat.

The Proposed Boston & Columbus Blockbuster?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Columbus	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Marc Savard	Forward	32	41	10	23	33	7	$4.2 million
Blake Wheeler	Forward	23	82	18	20	38	0	RFA
--------------
To Boston	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
2010 1st round pick (4th overall)

Not sure where this rumour came from exactly, but I saw it in this tweet this morning and thought I would post it.

In essence, what this trade looks to accomplish is that Columbus would want to win right away, adding talent for Rick Nash to play with in Marc Savard, while the Bruins would then have two of the top four picks in the Entry Draft, making a rebuild far faster with two top end blue chip prospects.

belt and dealing the 4th overall pick gives them a good chance to do just that. The Jackets have a top end goal scorer in Nash and they need to get him some servicable playmaking so he can regain his 50-goal touch and Savard is definitely that kind of talent. Wheeler is an interesting addition to the deal, likely there to help pad the cost of giving up on a potential franchise player from the 4th pick.

With the 2nd and 4th overall picks, the Bruins can then add Tyler Seguin, a possible franchise centre and then add a Cam Fowler or Erik Gudbranson, both of which can help pivot from the blueline with a Zdeno Chara or a Dennis Wideman, but what this does is it hurts the Bruins chances of drawing into the playoffs in 2011, even though they didn't really have Marc Savard for a good portion of the season due to the concussion and Wheeler was not the impact player that really decides whether or not a team makes or breaks the playoffs.

Both teams have decent reason to make a deal like this and it would be really interesting if the Bruins could get their 2nd and 4th overall picks to make their opening night roster and give the team some added punch, but I think there would have to be a bit more to this deal for it to go through, possibly some more picks going either way. It's a fairly savvy move, but even the scope of how big this deal is might make these teams hesitate to pull the trigger.

Spezza to Edmonton?

One rumour floating around HockeyBuzz today that I think has some serious merit to it is the Jason Spezza to Edmonton suggestions, which has him being moved at the Draft.  First of all, I would like to reiterate that I'm all over these Spezza rumours, because I think Bryan Murray has done a terrible job in Ottawa and has made some of his best players not want to play for the team anymore, which has got to be frustrating as a Senators fan. 

Today's post sees Spezza head West for a nice package in return, which includes either Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano, a couple of prospects (one being NHL ready) and a mid-round pick.  Since there was very few details, I didn't want to draw up the trade table, because I save that for some good mock-ups.

Nevertheless, the rumour does stand on it's own, especially since the Oilers are in desperate need of a quality centre (not to say that the Senators should be giving away one) and it would then justify drafting Tayor Hall with their number one overall pick in a week's time, possibly forming a formidable pairing.

Oh, okay... let's draw up something.  But let's be clear, this is me just playing around.  I am not trying to start a rumour here, I'm just drawing up what I think would be an alright deal... thinking out loud, if you will.

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Edmonton	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jason Spezza	Forward	27	60	23	34	57	5	$7 million
--------------
To Ottawa	Position	Age	GP/MIN	G/W	A/SO	P	Years	Cap Hit
Sam Gagner	Forward	20	68	15	26	41	0	RFA
Alex Plante	Defense	21	4	0	1	1	2	$1.075 million
Devan Dubnyk	Goalie	24	1,075	4	0	8	0	RFA
2010 4th Round Pick (91st overall)

The price for Spezza is going to be steep, no matter which way you look at it and I think this deal looks about right for what the Oilers will have to pay for him. The Senators can help fill some voids with this deal, getting Gagner to replace Spezza, Plante to replace Volchenkov and give Dubnyk a shot at earning a place against Brian Elliot and Pascal Leclaire.

The Senators are also going to be shedding a lot of payroll and cap space with this deal sending Spezza out of town, so that should make them pretty big players in the free agency market.  It's all quite relevant, but who's really to say it would happen?

Brodeur for Semin? Really?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Washington	Position	Age	MIN	W	SO	P	Years	Cap Hit
Martin Brodeur	Goalie	38	4,499	45	9	111	2	$5.2 million
--------------
To New Jersey	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Alexander Semin	Forward	26	73	40	44	84	1	$6 million

I think we can consider this rumour to be the Mother-of-all-rumours and there should be no surprise where it has come from, but that won't stop me from playing with it.  It's just way too juicy to pass up.

I suppose by now, you've seen the proposed deal above and probably laughed like many have already.  In this deal, it is suggested that the Capitals would look after their goaltending woes by going out and acquiring one of the greatest goalies of all time, Martin Brodeur, working in his twilight years in the NHL.  In exchange, the Capitals would send oft-maligned forward, Alex Semin, in order to sway Ilya Kovalchuk back into the fold in New Jersey... or so the rumour states.  In theory, the motive could be justified by either side, but could it really work out?

Actually, I'd like to look at the points that Eklund has in his post, just to see how much footing he has here.

1. The Devils want to keep Kovalchuk.  No surprise here.  Who wouldn't want to keep one of the premier snipers in the game?

2. Martin Brodeur is not a given to keep playing much longer, and will be hired the second he retires to work in the Devils front office.  True, he isn't a given to play much longer... and it does seem likely that he will get a job with the Devils, making him a "career Devil."  I think the quotation marks really speak for themselves here.

3. Kovalchuk would consider staying if the Devils would go out and get Semin to play with him.  I don't doubt this, since Atlanta bent over backwards to bring in Antropov, Kubina and Afinogenov, all in the hopes they would keep him happy.  Very plausible.

4. Brodeur would agree to play one (possibly 2) years in Washington. Firming up their goaltending situation and making the Caps the HUGE favorite to win a Stanley Cup. Then he could return to work for the Devils, who would be in a much better situation.  If this trade does go down, Brodeur would HAVE TO agree to play one or two (which is the remainder of his current deal) more seasons and then play in the quotation marks of "career Devil."  This isn't a reason, it's a product of the the rumoured situation happening.

5. Semin is a great player, but the Caps are not opposed to moving him for Brodeur. Interestingly, the Caps signed him to a very short deal.  Semin is a ticking time-bomb, looking forward to unrestricted free agency and the opportunity to be the big fish, even if it's in a small pond (which is my understanding).  Semin would again be the smaller fish against Kovalchuk, but at least he'll go unrestricted next July, so he could be as greedy as he wants.

Okay, so the salary cap is a pretty big factor when it comes to just about anything these days, but with these cap hits being fairly similar for the 2011 season, the only thing that really comes into play is what each team would need beyond this deal.  The Capitals, in theory, would be set with a good pack of forwards, maybe an underwhelming defense corps, but at least they will have a reliable keeper for a playoff run.  The Capitals could spend the extra cap space on improving the depth they'll need to sign.  With Semin going to the Devils and taking away Brodeur, this means that the Devils would have to both improve their defense, which has been underwhelming in its own right and actually replace one of the best goalies of all-time.  The Devils would have to greatly improve both while taking on an extra $800,000 hit on the cap space, in order to get back into the division race in the Atlantic.  To me, this is a no-brainer to say no to.

Besides the salary cap issues, which are huge and would make so much more work for Devils management, the term "career Devil" just lingers as something that has to happen.  Brodeur is not a player in the twilight of his career looking for a last gasp to win a Stanley Cup.  Brodeur has his name etched on the Cup, three times, and probably doesn't "need" another one before his career ends.  He has all of the clutch NHL records, a few championships, numerous awards and international accolades.  All Brodeur is doing is playing for the love of the game, you would have to believe and another Cup, which would be awesome no matter which way you look at it, would likely be sweetest in the Swamp.

Also, why would Lou Lamoriello want to make the Capitals a better Cup contender, just to keep Ilya Kovalchuk?  Doesn't make much sense to me.

Looking at the Goaltending Holes in the NHL

I thought I would climb through the roster tables that I've put together for my Pool Outlook pages on my Hockey Pool Blog and I thought I would look at the goaltending holes I could find, especially when it comes to starting goalies. There are a few goalies on the market that will make the offseason awfully interesting. All of these holes will need to be filled or some positions could also be upgraded. Here's where I think those positions are and possibly how they might look to fill them.

The Thrashers don't have a goalie with many minutes signed on to their roster this Summer as of yet and they will be in the market for a goalie this year. Ondrej Pavelec is a restricted free agent and he'll be looking for a starting job, but it's unclear how much ice-time the team wants to give him at this point. The Thrashers have the ability to be in on an unrestricted free agent goalie, so that will likely determine a lot about Pavelec's role come October.

I wouldn't say that the Blackhawks have many holes to fill, as they could keep Cristobel Huet, who is signed on for a couple seasons more, while Antti Niemi could find himself out of the picture, but after winning the Cup, that does seem unlikely.  It isn't a good bet that the Blackhawks will be testing the unrestricted free agent market, but their crease is right in the middle of the rumour mill gears.  There's plenty of speculation and it's only a matter of time before we see some movement.

It does sound like that the Oilers are comfortable giving Nikolai Khabibulin a second chance with the team, after an injury-plagued year and some legal troubles away from the rink, so the number one spot is his to lose (for a while). The Oilers have a couple of restricted free agent goalies that saw plenty of time in 2010 in Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk, who might be able to fetch a decent enough return via trade. Khabibulin still has a few years left on his current deal with the Oilers and if he stays healthy, one of those two young goalies will get some itchy feet to move on.

Who is it going to be? Is it Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price as the number one guy for the Canadiens? Maybe the question should be, do they only keep one or do they keep both, as they are both restricted free agents, both hungry for number one minutes. If they only decide to keep one, the Canadiens will likely deal the other away, flooding the goalie market a little bit more and possibly bringing in a talented veteran to help the chosen one through the 2011 season.

How comfortable are the Flyers going forward with Brian Boucher and Johan Backlund going forward? If I had to guess, it would be... not very. Boucher was a solid replacement for some much needed minutes, when there was no one else. Backlund shouldn't be immature at age 28 (29 in July), but reliability at the NHL level does pop up as a reasonable question. I would imagine that the Flyers are going to be players in the startin goalie marketplace, but what can they afford or what are they willing to spend?

With some interesting talent potentially available on the open market, can the Sharks gamble their future on what they can afford on the open market or do they use the last couple weeks of June to try and give a new deal to Evgeni Nabokov, while they still have his exclusive rights? Personally, as of June 15th, I would have thought that if they wanted to keep with Nabokov, they'd have signed him already, but that's just me. They have some negotiating power with a good offense in front of whoever takes the crease, so maybe they'll be looking to try a fresh face in the crease in 2011.

I have seen word on Twitter from some of the Blues sources that talks are open between themselves and potential UFA Chris Mason, which would solve their goaltending issue, in terms of their number one guy. If I remember correctly, they have been going for over a week or so, which suggests that this is not a slam dunk. The Blues are a team that has plenty of flexibility around the cap and probably doesn't want to pay too much for Mason, but may open the purse strings for a big UFA goalie that has a better reputation in the league as a winner. I'm expecting the Blues to drive prices up on UFA goalies.

If you ask me, I think the Lightning are in a solid position to upgrade their goaltending, after giving a solid shot to Mike Smith to be their number one, but he might just fit better as the back-up there in Tampa Bay.  That isn't to say that Smith won't be the number one guy on opening night, but with a new General Manager in town, he might have some good ideas on how to help brace the crease for plenty of shots against in the 2011 season.  The Lightning are another team with cap room, so I expect them to be in the market to spend some money in the crease.

The Capitals have a situation not unlike the Montreal Canadiens, but with the likely departure of Jose Theodore to unrestricted free agency, the Capitals do have a couple of restricted free agents in Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, who may be good enough to platoon the number one job, but with the Summer quickly approaching, they might weigh their options, flash some superstars in the direction of a highly rated unrestricted free agent and then go from there.

Oilers Shopping Their Veterans?

After a Twitter discussion with @Forcheck this morning, interest was sparked to see what the Oilers were rumoured to be doing this Summer and I eventually found this article from the the Edmonton Journal website suggesting that the Oilers are looking to rid themselves of some unappealing contracts that they have on the books.  That's definitely more than enough to perk up the ears over here and have a quick look at what is being suggested.

The names in trouble, according to the article, are Ethan Moreau, Patrick O'Sullivan and Robert Nilsson, thanks in large part to some underachieving in recent years.  None of the three players listed are huge weights upon the club as salary cap hits, O'Sullivan topping out at just under $3 million for just one more season, while the other two have a cap hit of $2 million each.  The article suggests that if these players cannot be moved in trades before the end of June, that there is a good chance that they will fall victim to the buyout period of the NHL, but frankly, with only one more year left on their current deals and the team's likelihood of making the playoffs, having an extra season of a cap hit (although discounted) seems somewhat unreasonable for making roster spots for their youth.

Nevertheless, the talent that underachieved in 2010 in those three players does still have some upside to them, which I think will make them marketable, if they are actually available.  If the Oilers are desperate to get rid of these guys at the Draft, they might be able to re-stock their youth system with a bunch of new picks, making themselves very flexible to the Jordan Eberle's and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson's that are coming up through the system in 2011.

Hodgson for Hall or Seguin?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Boston	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Michael Grabner	Forward	22	20	5	6	11	1	$843,000
Cody Hodgson	Forward	20	0	0	0	0	2	$1.6 million
--------------
To Vancouver	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Milan Lucic	Forward	22	50	9	11	20	3	$4.1 million
2010 1st Round Pick (2nd overall)
2010 2nd Round Pick (32nd overall)

Well, when I saw this one on Twitter this morning, I had to laugh, as there doesn't seem to be too much rhyme or reason for this one.  Between the two teams, there is a lot being thrown around and for what going to Vancouver, to me, the Bruins are banking on way too much of a gamble with Cody Hodgson.

What this rumour is suggesting is that to the Bruins, Hodgson is worth more to the Bruins than either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin, depending on who the Oilers choose, of course.  Hodgson, dealing with back injuries and attitude problems, should be discounted straight away, unless the Bruins have some inside scouting information that the Canucks may only know in secret.  With Hall and/or Seguin preparing to be franchise players in the league, it's hard to believe that it would be the deal this year, but the Bruins have said that the pick is in play.

Next, is the salary cap issue.  Yes, the Bruins would probably love to dump a salary like Lucic's, since it is fairly big, especially for a borderline 2nd line player, better suited as a 3rd line player.  If the Bruins could dump that deal, they would definitely be happy campers going into the Summer, without a doubt.  Unfortunately, the way this deal works out, the Canucks really are not giving up definite cap hits in either Grabner or Hodgson and then taking on a lump of salary, that would affect the team's chances of adding some more veteran experience or defensive help.

At best, there would have to be some cap space going the other way to Boston, if this trade was to go anywhere near reality, in my opinion.  Hodgson instead of Hall or Seguin, is mildly believable, Hodgson had his share of honours in juniors, even after he was drafted, but there would have to be some assurances to Boston that he'd be good to go right away.  A salary dump on a team that is already relatively high in their cap situation seems rather unlikely, no matter how much of a reception that Lucic would receive, returning to the city that he won a Memorial Cup with.  In another possible scenario, there would have to be another deal brewing that would see a pick and a salary dump by the Canucks to go out of town to fit this in, but speculating on anymore deals past one rumour, is just nonsense.  This rumour has too many ways to fail, it's ludicrous.

Jersey In Play for Kaberle?

The buzz is building around New Jersey making a play for Tomas Kaberle.  TSN says they have their sources confirming interest from New Jersey for the Czech blueliner, which adds up to me.  The Devils haven't really been the same without a good puck moving defenseman and Kaberle fits that bill to a tee.

The consistent word about Kaberle is that he would prefer to stay in the Eastern Conference, if at all possible, and the Devils have been a pretty good team over the past number of years, so I would have to believe that if there was a list of teams that Kaberle would okay a deal to, New Jersey would be one of them.  I can easily be wrong about that, Kaberle might have something against the Devils, who am I to really say?

The asking price that was quoted in the last Kaberle post I had on here had Burke asking for a 1st round pick or an NHL-ready young player.  The Devils do not have their 2010 1st round pick, so you would have to comb through their youth program to find someone appropriate in return.  I would suggest a player like Matt Halischuk, Adam Henrique or Nick Palmieri, who are developed mid-round picks or a higher price of either Jacob Josefson or Mattias Tedenby, who are former 1st round picks. 

The Devils do have some assets that the Maple Leafs could easily use in their line-up next season, it would be interesting to see what the end product is of all these rumours, if anything.  There is some real meat to this situation, I like the odds of something like this going down.

Greener Pastures for Toskala?

With unrestricted free agency looming for Vesa Toskala, the Calgary Flames didn't want to leave much doubt that the Finnish netminder will be smack dab in the middle of the free agent frenzy and not a part of the Flames organization on that day.

In a statement and interview with the Calgary media on Wednesday, GM Darryl Sutter had put to rest any concern, doubt or curiosity as to whether or not the belittled goaltender will back-up Miikka Kiprusoff in 2011, saying that Vesa Toskala still has an eye on being either a number one goalie or platooning on a regular basis, getting consistent starts.  I suppose the real question becomes, 'is there some team in the NHL that would be looking to Toskala to fill that kind of role?'

Toskala just finished a 2-year contract extension, which he signed in Toronto before the 2007/'08 season, which gave him a substantial raise and a cap hit of $4 million through the 2009/'10 season that has just passed.  Well, after a horrible pair of seasons as the Maple Leafs number one, he was dealt to Anaheim for J-S Giguere, where he didn't see any action and then was dealt again at the deadline to Calgary, where he saw a bit of action behind Miikka Kiprusoff until the end of the regular season.  Toskala only finished the year with 9 wins and a shutout in 2010, ranking him 48th among goalies according to my own list, but what kind of value would he be looking for in a new deal?

His market value, if comparing 2010 numbers for his age band (32 to 34 years old), he could be compared (only in numbers, not by playing style or confidence) to Scott Clemmensen in Florida, scheduled to make $1.2 million in 2011 or even Brian Boucher in Philadelphia, who will make $925,000 in 2011.  Staying in that age band, Toskala will be up against Jose Theodore and Martin Biron for new deals as unrestricted free agents and you would have to believe he would rank third to those two guys and only Theodore really has a good shot at getting a starting job.  I would also assume that if Toskala wants a starting job, he'll also be looking for starter's money as well and I couldn't see any NHL GM justify $3.5+ million a year for Toskala.

It might be a wise career move to see if he can resurrect his career outside of the NHL and get away from the leering eyes of the judgemental media around here that has it out for him and see if he can regain some of his confidence before trying to tackle a number one job here again.  But that's just me giving my two cents about the whole thing.

Thinking Out Loud: Plekanec

The Montreal Canadiens have a lot of cap space tied up in 12 players going into the Free Agent Frenzy and they have some high-priced decisions to make before the Frenzy actually drops on the calendar.  This really leaves a guy like Tomas Plekanec, the team's leading scorer in 2010, in limbo until some of these factors can be ironed out and dealt with.

With $43.4 million already tied up, the goaltending situation likely the team's top priority, I would have to imagine that the team's management is waiting for the new salary cap ceiling number to be passed down from the league's head office before they can hammer out the actual numbers for everyone who's looking for new money starting in the 2011 season.

Plekanec, being an unrestricted free agent, has to be a bit of a concern for the Habs, as they don't have a lot of time to hammer out the details, when you think the Free Agent Frenzy is just over three weeks away and the salary cap number doesn't usually drop until a few days before the Entry Draft, but there has to be a plan of attack in there somewhere I'd imagine... from both sides. 

My expectations of a new deal for Plekanec sits in around $4.5 million per season, since he's only had one really big year in the scoring columns and he's really only starting to find his stride.  Of course, if the Canadiens are going to try and lock him up long-term, there could be an argument for a little bit more money down the road, possibly back-loading the deal, keeping his cap hit relatively affordable, helping the team build.  That would be very helpful on Plekanec's part to agree to something like that.

Expectations may change if he hits the open market on July 1st, if the Canadiens cannot put pen to paper before then.  Plekanec really established himself as a good two-way centre with a good scoring touch, finishing 27th among forwards in scoring last season.  That may be a hot commodity in this weaker free agent class, which could fetch him $5.5 million a year or a longer-term deal which is around $5 million per season.  Comparable players in the league now would be Mikko Koivu (1 year remaining at $3.25 million) or Derek Roy (3 years remaining at $4 million), multiplied by the demand of the position. 

So, let's say he hits the open market, playing a little Devil's Advocate here, where does Plekanec go, signing at $5 million per season, likely in a 3-to-4-year deal?  Now, Plekanec is only 27 years old, so his absolute desire to win may not be as strong as the 35+ free agents looking to win a Cup right away, so I would imagine Plekanec will take a big deal where he can get it.  I think that puts a good number of teams in play, including a lot of the basement rung teams, like Atlanta, Long Island and Tampa Bay.  If Patrick Marleau happens to leave San Jose, I could see the Sharks making a play for Plekanec as a 2nd line centre, he'd be an interesting fit there, but he'd be a 3rd priority to a couple other marquee free agents.

Plekanec is definitely going to be one of the better UFAs on the market this Summer, if he isn't re-signed by the Canadiens before July 1st.  I have him down as the number two centre on the market, behind Marleau, and we all know teams like to have good options at centre.  I wouldn't be surprised if one of the top end teams signs him and moves players around to get him to fit in their scheme. 

What About Whitney?

I'm kind of blown away by talk that the Carolina Hurricanes are setting themselves a budget of $44 million for their payroll in 2011, which is low-balling it significantly.  Now, as I can gather, that works out to be $44 million in payroll, which is quite low, but thankfully for 2011, the Hurricanes have more back-loaded deals for their young players, like Eric Staal, and front-loaded deals for their elders, like Rod Brind'Amour.  According to CapGeek's salary chart for the Hurricanes (I don't do salaries on my chart, just cap hits), they are currently sitting with a payroll of $41.9 million, which is deathly close already.  This number will drastically effect how the Hurricanes are tinkered with in the Summer months, including their free agents.

Enter: Ray Whitney. Whitney is an unrestricted free agent this Summer and at 38-years old, he still seems to have plenty of life left in him to warrant a brand new deal from someone, but that someone isn't going to be the Hurricanes. 

In 2010, Whitney had himself a cap hit of $3.55 million, which may have been front-loaded at the time, but was definitely worth a good chunk of change.  In return, Whitney did post 21 goals and 58 points in 80 games for the Hurricanes, which was about right for the value he possesses against the salary cap.  For 2011, I would be expecting that Whitney will be in the same cap hit neighbourhood for a 1-year deal, less if it was a 2-year deal, when signing with a new club and I imagine there will be some reasonable suitors for his services.

I could honestly see Whitney sign a 2-year deal worth about $2.5 million against the cap for his new team, which is looking for some Cup-winning experience, 15-20 goals a year and some decent skating speed.  If I had to point to a few teams that I think would look at Whitney seriously, they would be Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Los Angeles and Washington.  I wouldn't expect teams that are outside the bubble to really be in on Whitney, nor would I expect Whitney to want to be in on teams that aren't likely to win. 

Thinking Out Loud: Theodore

I can't say that I'm terribly surprised that Jose Theodore hasn't had any discussions with the Washington Capitals (as read here this morning), but I am exceptionally curious to know what kind of leverage he might have when negotiating a new deal away from the US capital. 

First of all, Theodore is coming off of a 2-year deal that had an annual cap hit of $4.5 million, which is a fair chunk of change for a number one goalie.  I don't think it was unfair to pay Theodore as a number one goalie, as he was brought in to fill that role in 2008 and he has done the job admirably, when called upon.  Unfortunately for Theodore, the Capitals have some wealth in goaltending prospects, including Semyon Varlamov, who took back the starting role before the playoffs this year and Michal Neuvirth, who is currently leading the Hershey Bears in the AHL Calder Cup Finals at the moment.  With two young goalies like that, the big contract of Theodore has become expendible.

As for his numbers, Theodore has managed to win at least 30 games in his two seasons with the Capitals, but arguably, with that much firepower up front, 30 wins should be expected of any goalie that can figure into 45+ games a year.  It's definitely a credit to his play that he didn't stink it up behind Alex Ovechkin and company and won a lot of games, but how much credit is it actually worth?  I would imagine in some negotiations, you might have teams try and discount his value because of the team in front of him.

What is going to be the role that Theodore has when he signs with a new team?  I would have to think that he'll be holding out for a starting job, so the longer he stays on the market, would suggest the likelihood that he'll have to take a back-up role, which will greatly affect his pay scale, but looking at the teams that will (or may) be shopping for a starter (Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Jose or Tampa Bay) he might get snapped up in a hurry. 

At age 33, there should be no consideration that Theodore is over-the-hill at all, especially since he put up some tremendous numbers in the regular season for a contending team.  The length of deal he will likely attract couldn't be all that big, likely again in the 2-year range, especially with the amount of young talent most teams have coming up through their system.  Most teams would be looking at Theodore as a short-term solution or use him in more of a mentoring role.

All of that being said, I am expecting to see an annual cap hit of about $3 million, maybe $3.5 million, for Theodore for the 2011 season, which is quite reasonable for his experience and the new team that he joins will probably be in need of a number one guy, so there will be a marketable price given.

Right now, I think his best fit would probably be in Tampa Bay, as they have some good young keepers coming through their system and Theodore could platoon the role with Mike Smith.  Theodore would be a fresh face in a rebuilding city like Tampa and they could be a pretty good team in a couple of seasons, likely to help fuel better contract negotiations for another deal down the line.

That was just me thinking out loud again...

Troubles With Kulemin?

Over the weekend, TSN.ca ran this article saying that negotiations with Nikolai Kulemin are not going very well, which gets me to wonder, how much does Nikolai Kulemin think he's worth?

In the age group of 23 to 25-year old forwards, Kulemin had a very middle-of-the-road season with the Maple Leafs, only picking up 16 goals and 36 points in 78 games.  His 16 goals ranked him 25th in that age group in the category, which shouldn't necessarily translate into a whole lot of money.  Currently signed on to deals in that same age group and goal range are Blake Comeau of the Islanders (17 goals, $650,000 in 2011), Rostislav Olesz of the Panthers (14 goals, $3.125 million in 2011), Drew Stafford of the Sabres (14 goals, $2 million in 2011). 

Definitely, the best (and most telling) line of the article was, "While they can say: 'he was on your first line last year,' there is no one who would say Nikolai Kulemin is a first line left winger. He's a first line left winger by default because we did not have a very good team. I'm not paying for someone who gets the position by default."  There is a distinct level of truth to that statement, which makes the art of negotiations a more colourful piece to watch.  Kulemin is not a first line winger on pretty well every team in the NHL, especially when you match him up against other wingers in the league, nor should Kulemin get paid like a top line player, according to his numbers.  Comeau, Olesz and Stafford don't normally have the luxury of playing on the top line of their teams, unless there is a benching or injury.

A fair counter-argument that the Kulemin camp may want to use is how good would he be if he actually had some talent to play with?  Sure, he had 16 goals getting some top line action with the club, that really didn't have a top line centre on it.  Granted, if the Maple Leafs actually found a number one centre to fit on the roster, there is no reason that Kulemin deserves to play with him more than Phil Kessel, who is easily the team's top sniper.  It's not an unreasonable argument to make as a whole, but it is one that falls a little short, due to the pecking order in Toronto.

I would say fair market value for one season would be $1.75 million for Kulemin, which would be a fair raise coming out of his current deal, which only had $1.487 million against the cap.  If the Leafs can get Kulemin some help and he can put up the numbers, I think Burke would definitely be more likely to talk turkey at giving time.

As a restricted free agent, Kulemin will likely be given a qualifying offer by the club, just so they don't lose his signing rights for nothing.  I suppose if Burke is pissed at Kulemin for these deallings, he may just walk away from him and let him slide into unrestricted free agency, but that's nothing for me to speculate about, just saying it's a possibility.  If Kulemin gets his qualifying offer, then the Leafs will get the right to first refusal, the ability to match or let go for compensation.  Compensation for a $1.75 million offer sheet would be in the neighbourhood of a 3rd round pick, where any sort of compensation would be enough to see Kulemin out the door.  I honestly can't see a team paying any more of him in a deal than that, unless they know something that we don't.

I have much doubt that anyone will be out to scoop Kulemin, but I could see Burke trying to move his rights if this goes any further.  If Burke can move him, I would expect to see either another troubled free agent or a mid-round pick coming the other way.

Love of the Cup or Money: Kovalchuk

I believe we can all agree that Ilya Kovalchuk is the most talented sniper in the potential UFA market going into July, correct?  Yes, I thought so.  Patrick Marleau and Tomas Plekanec don't hold a candle to th scoring ability of Kovalchuk, so there will very well be some interesting discussions in the NHL about Ilya Kovalchuk.  But hold on a second, there are now offers abound from Russia to get one of their best exports to North America back in their regime and they are willing to pay big money to get him.

Word is on Monday morning that SKA St. Petersberg has offered the Russian sniper a 3-year deal worth $42 million, which would also include some major signing bonuses on top of the deal.  I cannot confirm about the bonuses, but I have seen it floating around as well.  So, that equates to $14 million per year, where the NHL maximum due to the salary cap constraints is about $11.5 million in 2010, with expectations that the salary cap ceiling will go up by about $2 million, which would bring the league maxium to upwards of about $11.9 million, which is 20% of the salary cap total.

The questions now remain, how much is Kovalchuk worth and how much can an NHL team get him for, in terms of a cap value?  Salary-wise, an NHL team should be able to frontload Kovalchuk's deal heavily, so they can really give him the money that he wants and the cap hit a team needs to build around him, but you would have to believe that Kovalchuk is not going to come to any team easily, unless there is a reputation for winning on their side.   

Alex Ovechkin will go into the 2011 season (as of right now) with the highest cap hit at $9.538 million with the Washington Capitals and his deal runs for the next 11 seasons.  Ovechkin sets the bar really high for Kovalchuk and would likely draw more comparisons to his structure than to anyone else.  Ovechkin did re-sign with the Capitals as a centrepiece to the team that he was drafted by, so there has to be some leverage in from the Capitals when dealing with a restricted free agent at the time.  Kovalchuk, on the other hand, will be looking to join a new team from the unrestricted free agent market, which has the ability to turn into a bidding war.  This will drive up Kovalchuk's value and it will be up to him to decide whether or not he wants to hedge his bets towards a Stanley Cup Finals appearance or taking the money and running.

Kovalchuk and his agent have to know that the $14 million per season offer for the next three seasons cannot be topped by any team in the NHL and they may have the ability (not 100% sure) to sign right away, since the season has been completed and Kovalchuk is just days away from free agency anyways.  If the money was the biggest factor, the $14 million would have to be very tempting to him and he would have just left.  I'm thinking more along the lines that he's waiting to see what kind of offers come in on July 1st, see what teams are making a push and then make a decision from there.

There is also the point that we have not seen the official salary cap ceiling number for the 2010-'11 season either, which may be holding up the proceedings of any concrete rumours lifting to the surface from NHL teams.  This new offer from Russia does seem to cover that and offer a bit more, so we'll really get to see if it's for the love of the Cup or money when Kovalchuk decides on his own future.

Spezza to Boston for the #2?

RUMOUR			2009-2010 NHL Statistics				2011 Cap Info
To Boston	Position	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
Jason Spezza	Forward	27	60	23	34	57	5	$7 million
--------------
To Ottawa	Positiion	Age	GP	G	A	P	Years	Cap Hit
2010 1st Round Pick (2nd overall)

Yes, I am going to continue to buy into these Jason Spezza rumours, because I think they have some legs to them.  Well, moreso that he is going to leave Ottawa than the actual rumours themselves, but thanks to ol' Eklund and his blog, we get to see what is floating around.  This afternoon's specialty sees Spezza going to Boston for the 2nd overall pick, which may or may not be a real game changer.

Spezza, the number two overall pick in 2001, would be a curious fit in Boston, a team that already has Patrice Bergeron and Marc Savard signed on.  Any deal could see Bergeron or Spezza move to the wing, if necessary, so it probably shouldn't be held out of the question due to position.  The Bruins are finding themselves in a very positive window for becoming a contending team and adding a great puck moving centre like Spezza could make things a little more interesting.

Which team wouldn't want to take on the 2nd overall pick in this year's draft with the talent coming out of the top four or five players?  The Senators could then likely turn around and make a good offer to Anton Volchenkov with Spezza's cap hit leaving the books and Ottawa can remain a very good defensive team with a shot at making the playoffs again.

The real concern for the Bruins taking on a player like Spezza at the Entry Draft would be the build up against the cap, especially if no cap space opens up with another player going in the other direction.  Spezza is a $7 million cap hit and would potentially lift the Bruins' cap number up to $56.7 million, leaving very little room for six to eight players.

Dropping $7 million from the Senators books would leave them at $40.1 million, if the deal were to go down now, which would give them all sorts of room to fill in the eight to ten gaps in their roster.  

I don't like the chances of this straight swap happening, because it would be much harder to decide which pieces of the puzzle need to be taken out of Boston to help fit everyone in underneath the salary cap.  That being said, unless there is a plan in place or a few more factors that are not taken into account in this post, I really don't see this move happening. 

Semin Part of a Major Deal?

A short and sweet post from Eklund suggests that the Capitals may be looking to a major trade, likely to move Alexander Semin and a "star goaltender most think is untouchable."

Anybody at all surprised that Semin could very well be on the block?  There is no question that the kid is talented, but he hasn't been terribly clutch for the Capitals, especially in the playoffs.  That $6 million cap hit this season does weigh his value down as a bargain, but maybe the kid just needs to go to a city where he can play top fiddle for a while.

As for the goalie who most people would think is untouchable would likely have to be Semyon Varlamov, who has been able to take most of the reps for the Capitals in the playoffs, but even then isn't quite as solid.  The Capitals may even be higher on Michal Neuvirth than we have been thinking.  That's awfully interesting, don't you think?  Heck, maybe it's Neuvirth that we think is untouchable in the organization and another team wants to give him the starting job somewhere.  Very tempting, either way.

If I was to offer two guesses, one West and one East... I would have to say it would be the Edmonton Oilers who swing this deal, with Nikolai Khabibulin going the other way... or it's the Atlanta Thrashers, who would take both Semin and Varlamov for some division jockeying, likely giving up one of their 1st rounders with a couple of youths.

The Oilers make some sense, because they want to have a superstar sniper, maybe even to go with Tyler Seguin, who could be their number one overall pick.  Certainly, a pie in the sky sort of dreaming, but definitely feasible with how they are structured against the cap and also not having to worry about Khabibulin anymore.

The Thrashers, on the other hand, really seem to like Russians nowadays and picking up a couple more could somehow put some more butts in the seats in Atlanta with some flash and dash in their line-up.  It would give Max Afinogenov a little more help on their offense and maybe give Slava Kozlov someone to mentor in Atlanta, possibly some more ice-time.

When you have vague statements like this Eklund post, the imagination can run wild, couldn't it?

I'm Buying Stock in Spezza Rumours

I suppose making the playoffs is what keeps Bryan Murray employed in Ottawa, because it certainly isn't the assumed treatment of his highly-paid superstars that allows him to keep working at his post as General Manager.  If that was the case, I would have to think that the leaks of Jason Spezza coming into his office and having an emotional discussion after the season had ended would suggest that he has lost another star's confidence and may be forced to deal him.

This whole debacle really does seem to me, especially how everything had leaked, to be planted and framed up for Murray to make a deal this off-season, if at all possible.  Spezza does owe the Senators his silence through this whole charade, because they gave him all the patience and time that Spezza needed to become a good NHL player that can earn $7 million per season.  Since this soap opera has been kept under wraps and is slowly blowing up into a bigger and bigger deal, there might be a team or two that can fit him into their system and make a reasonable play for him.  This is me just thinking out loud again, there is no real basis to these thoughts other than calling it as I see it.

I would have to believe that the 2001 2nd overall pick is unhappy that he has seen one of his favourite playmaking targets, Dany Heatley, has left the team to greener pastures (also citing some differences in the organization) and you may even draw Ray Emery into the conversation as well, since it was believed that Spezza and Emery were friends in the organization.

This situation also reminds me a lot of the Heatley saga last Summer, when Bryan Murray was defiant in talking about dealing Heatley, until everything really boiled over.  I am going to buy into most Spezza rumours this Summer or at least write about the ones that are pretty well laid out.  I'm thinking that there should be a team or two that would want a $7 million guy, but can't seem to find one on the free agent market this year.  Look at Patrick Marleau, he'll be a prized possession and he's much older than Spezza.

Kariya Back to Anaheim... With Selanne?

I saw some interesting tweets from Andy Strickland of HockeyBuzz.com, suggesting Paul Kariya is waiting to see what the market will bear for a return in 2011 and hoping to possibly reunite with former teammate, Teemu Selanne, in Anaheim, where he started his career.  This sort of news gets a guy to thinking, you know?  Could this possibly work out for the Ducks to get both both players signed on for the 2011 season?

Both players are firmly into their Summers, especially since the Blues and the Ducks failed to make the playoffs in April, so there must have been a number of free moments between then and now to contemplate their futures.  Obviously, it sounds like Kariya has come up with some conclusions, while there is some belief that Selanne will hang up the skates at age 39 (or 40 in one month's time).  I guess, the better first question will be, would the prospect of Kariya going back to Anaheim be enough for Selanne to return for another year?  If the answer is no, then all other discussions about this topic are now moot.

For the sake of saying yes though, I suppose it would have to be a look at possible cap numbers going forward, before we try and fit something into the Ducks annual cap numbers.  Let's remember, both players did take less money to play together once before in Colorado, so I think we can safely assume that there could be a special incentive for the Ducks to have both of these players signed on for the 2011 season. 

In 2010, Selanne was signed on to a cap hit of $2.625 million with the Ducks as a 39-year old winger and he finished with 48 points in 54 games.  Kariya, on the other hand, had an annual cap hit of $6 million with the Blues as a 35-year old and he only picked up 43 points in 75 games.  It might be high time that Kariya took a bit of a pay cut, don't you think?  So, saying that, what kind of pay cut are they looking at, especially since Selanne could almost argue for a fine raise with the production he managed in 54 games, but that's another story altogether.  It may not be unreasonable to say to both, here's a 1-year deal for $3 million each, call it square.  I'm sure the Kariya camp may barder for a bit more, but seeing what kind of offers that are made by quality teams might mean he'll be low-balled in discussions.  Fair enough, Kariya has barely scored enough to warrant a $6 million cap hit lately anyways.

Okay, we've settled on $3 million each, which if playing well together on the same team works wonders, it may just be a good bargain for the Ducks to pick up.  Currently, in accordance to my spreadsheet and the Pool Outlook, the Ducks currently have $35.3 million in cap space allotted to 14 players, which looks like plenty of room to slip two players at $3 million each, bringing their total up to $41.3 million for 16 players, leaving over $15 million for seven players.  A big thumbs up to some quality bookkeeping here. 

This idea is plausible, but first you have to convince Selanne to make a return and the Ducks would have to come out and say that this is a good idea.  It's not a terrible idea, for the right price, of course.

Thinking Out Loud: Kaberle

Massive post on TSN.ca from their insider, Darren Dreger, about the Maple Leafs expressing through e-mail to the other 29 teams that Tomas Kaberle is officially available for a deal to take him out of town.  This is really big news, as it really does spell the end of Kaberle's run in Toronto and the reshaping of the Maple Leafs will continue with some more major measures this Summer.

According to the post, the asking price for Kaberle is a 1st round draft pick or an NHL-ready young player, which actually doesn't seem too high of a price, to be honest.  The post also suggests that the Leafs brass are not in a big hurry to move Kaberle out of town, as he could still be a valuable asset to the team in the 2011 season, the last year before he become an unrestricted free agent.

CapGeek.com reports the No Trade Clause as being open after the Entry Draft to August 15th, whereas the Leafs can find a deal for Kaberle outside of that window, but only to an exclusive list of teams provided by Kaberle.  We're still about three weeks away from open season on the Czech veteran, but that isn't to say that interest won't be peaked by most teams and that they can't make a play for him, but I suppose if any of the exclusive teams makes a big enough pitch, likely including their 1st round pick in three weeks, Burke would have to listen.  The Leafs don't have their 1st round pick in 2011 either, so holding out for a pick in that draft doesn't seem to be a bad idea either.

Nevertheless, this will mean that it's open season on the rumour mill, as it was this morning on HockeyBuzz, suggesting some possible teams, possible scenarios and the like.  What I liked in that post was one source was citing offense to be the biggest thing the Leafs are looking for this season and with the defensive depth they have signed on for 2011, that sort of makes sense.

This post is now a pretty good jumping off point for the Summer talks with Kaberle and I'm expecting to return back to it with comparisons of some rumoured deals until the day the deal is done.  I expect to see a good number of deals posted leading up to that day.

Early Rumours of Marleau & Kovalchuk

Oh, I love how rumour season is kicking into gear... I do keep a close eye on HockeyBuzz, because it's a lot of fun to play with the rumours.  Sunday afternoon sees an interesting paradigm shift in the Pacific Division with the suggestion of the Los Angeles Kings going after Patrick Marleau on July 1st, opening up the door for the Sharks to go after Ilya Kovalchuk. 

Looking at what the Kings already have in place, Marleau looks like he'd be a pretty good fit down the middle for the Kings, but do they really want to drop a ton of cap space on one player on a young team.  The Kings already have a good captain in Dustin Brown, but you would have to think Marleau would get an "A" if he steps on the ice for Los Angeles.  Depth at centre is somewhat questionable, so having a centre like Marleau to play with a guy like Ryan Smyth does seem rather tempting, so I think the rumour does have some merit.

Last week, I did toy with the idea of what Marleau might be worth on the open market and my best guess would suggest that $6.5 million will be the eventual cap hit for him and since the Kings have $43.4 million already taken up for 15 players, they'd be riding $50 million if they added Marleau.  That's getting pretty tight.

Now, the Sharks targeting Ilya Kovalchuk is super interesting, wouldn't you say?  How far would the desired salary cap hit slide to play in San Jose? That would be my first question when thinking about this potential signing. I'm thinking that if Kovalchuk did decide to go to San Jose in July, he would have to think that moving to the West would give him the best chance to win a Cup, so I'm thinking the desired cap hit may drop down to $7 million per season, which would be well suited to the Sharks, who only have a current cap hit of $34.6 million for 10 players, including Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Dan Boyle.  That would be a boatload of offense and then depth and goaltending would have to be sorted out with the remaining cap space, which might not be a hard task, because they should be able to attract some top talent to play for less with the four players signed (hypothetically). 

The Sharks are definitely in a position to go shopping with Marleau and Evgeni Nabokov hitting the open market, relieving a lot of cap space, and they will have to win something big soon or else the management may be finding itself in some real hot water.